Suominen Oyj

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 158.47
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
SUY1V FH
SUY1V.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 2.72

Latest Reports

7 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Taking marginal steps in the right direction
Suominen's Q4 comparable EBITDA remained virtually intact q/q, but fell short of Vara Research consensus expectations. Volumes improved slightly y/y, while the top line was burdened by lower sales prices. Management continues to see positive signs in the market, despite challenges in the macro environment. Suominen guides for improving comparable EBITDA for 2024, although from a low level of EUR 15.8m in 2023. We cut 2024E EBITDA by 9%, but expect sequentially improving comparable EBITDA for H1, due to a normalising market environment. We derive a slightly lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 2.0-2.7 (2.1-2.9). Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

6 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Q4 comparable EBITDA fell short of expectations – expects improving EBITDA in 2024
Suominen’s result were largely in line with Q3 and fell short of Vara Research consensus expectations. Management continues to see positive signals in its business environment, despite the weak global economy. Dividend proposal stands at EUR 0.10, slightly above consensus at EUR 0.08. We anticipate consensus to revise down 2024 estimates to the tune of 10%, while we note solid cash flow and slightly higher-than-anticipated DPS proposal.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
31 JAN 2024
Commissioned Research: Raw material prices are edging up
We expect Suominen to continue improving its profitability in Q4, driven by lower raw material prices and self-help measures. However, the recent uptick in pulp prices could cause some pressure in 2024 despite a possibly improving operating environment. We make only marginal revisions to our 2023 estimates, while we trim 2024E adjusted EBITDA by 6% due to higher pulp prices and FX. We derive a fair value range of EUR 2.1-2.9 (2.4-3.1), based on DCF- and multiples-based valuation approaches. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

30 OCT 2023
Commissioned Research: Signs of margin recovery from H1 lows
Suominen’s Q3 2023 results were an improvement from Q2, albeit slightly less than we and consensus had factored in, and management claims it is seeing positive signs in its business despite the challenging global economy. We expect the margin improvement to continue but lower our EBITDA estimates by 12% for 2023 and 7% for 2024. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Analysts:
27 OCT 2023
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Q3 EBITDA improving from Q2, 2023 outlook unchanged, positive signs tentatively indicated for 2024
Suominen’s result improved from Q2, albeit slightly less than factored in consensus estimates, and management claims it is seeing positive signs in its business environment, despite the weak global economy. We anticipate no material revisions to consensus estimates, based on the result and guidance.

Analysts:
10 AUG 2023
Commissioned Research: Outlook suggests margin recovery from H1 lows
Suominen reported weaker than expected Q2 earnings but continues to anticipate stronger earnings in H2. We lower our comparable EBITDA estimate for 2023 to EUR 20m, and our DCF- and multiples-based fair value range is reduced to EUR 2.6-3.3, owing to the lowered near-term outlook. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Analysts:
9 AUG 2023
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Suominen – Q2 comparable EBITDA of EUR 2.7m misses expectations, but guidance continues to suggest improving earnings in H2
Suominen reported slightly lower comparable EBITDA than expected, but reiterated its guidance for improving earnings in 2023 vs 2022, which also implies earnings improvement in H2 compared to H1. Cash flow of EUR 6m was boosted by release in working capital. We anticipate consensus estimates to decline from the current EUR 28m, but continue to foresee earnings momentum to improve from the low levels in H1.

Analysts:
5 MAY 2023
Commissioned Research: Optimistic outlook for H2 after a challenging H1
Suominen's margins remained depressed in Q1, even though costs have passed their peak. Management expects the market to be challenging in the near term but is more optimistic about the H2 development, so we lower 2023E EBITDA by 8% but keep 2024E-25E essentially unchanged. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Analysts:
4 MAY 2023
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Q1 sales and EBITDA below expectations in a challenging market
Suominen reported weaker than expected sales and EBITDA, with costs peaking but not giving as much tailwind as expected. Management sees the near-term outlook remaining challenging, with raw material prices remaining close to Q1 levels and competition remaining fierce, but the company is more optimistic about H2 outlook and maintains its full-year EBITDA guidance unchanged.

Analysts:
6 FEB 2023
Commissioned Research: Heading for a lower cost environment
Despite Q4 comparable EBITDA missing our estimates and Vara consensus, we anticipate improving earnings, as costs are broadly declining, but lower our 2023 sales and EBITDA estimates by 3% and 10%, respectively. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Analysts:

Equity analysts

Key persons

CEO: Tommi Björnman

CFO: Janne Silonsaari

Chairman: Jaakko Eskola

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
EURm
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
Total revenues
458.9
443.2
493.3
450.9
467.6
487.5
n.a.
Ebitda (adj.)
60.92
47.00
15.34
15.81
26.27
33.73
n.a.
Ebitda - margin
13.3%
10.6%
3.1%
3.5%
5.6%
6.9%
n.a.
EBIT (adj.)
39.5
26.9
-4.2
-2.8
7.7
15.1
n.a.
EBIT (adj.) margin
8.6%
6.1%
-0.8%
-0.6%
1.6%
3.1%
n.a.
PTP (adj.)
33.9
26.6
-7.1
-8.7
3.4
12.1
n.a.
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
30.11
20.74
-9.07
-8.02
2.62
9.46
n.a.
Shareholders´ Equity
145.9
163.2
145.9
124.9
121.7
125.3
n.a.
Net interest bearing debt
37.1
49.6
54.6
43.5
39.9
33.4
n.a.
Net gearing
25.4%
30.4%
37.4%
34.8%
32.8%
26.7%
n.a.
Net debt/EBITDA
0.6
1.1
3.8
3.9
1.5
1.0
n.a.
Free cash flow to equity
46.1
-4.4
4.3
19.7
12.9
15.8
n.a.
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
n.a.
Nordea Markets estimates published on Feb 7, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
EPS (adj.)
0.52
0.36
-0.16
-0.14
0.05
0.16
n.a.
EPS (adj.) growth
13,268.1%
-31.6%
-143.7%
11.5%
132.7%
260.5%
n.a.
DPS
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.12
n.a.
BVPS
2.5
2.8
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.2
n.a.
P/E (adj.)
9.8
14.6
n.a.
n.a.
60.4
16.7
n.a.
EV/Sales
0.73
0.79
0.46
0.46
0.42
0.39
n.a.
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
5.47
7.48
14.93
13.14
7.55
5.69
n.a.
EV/EBIT (adj.)
8.43
13.04
n.a.
n.a.
25.89
12.68
n.a.
P/BV
2.03
1.85
1.20
1.32
1.30
1.26
n.a.
Dividend yield
3.9%
3.9%
3.3%
3.5%
3.7%
4.4%
n.a.
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
15.6%
-2.2%
2.4%
9.9%
5.9%
7.8%
n.a.
RoE
21.6%
13.4%
-9.0%
-9.4%
2.1%
7.7%
n.a.
ROIC
14.5%
9.7%
-1.5%
-1.1%
3.4%
7.1%
n.a.
Nordea Markets estimates published on Feb 7, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics