Suominen Oyj

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 149.73
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
SUY1V FH
SUY1V.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 2.57

Latest Reports

31 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Initiates restructuring programme with EUR 1.5m annual cost savings target
Suominen has today announced a restructuring programme that is expected to generate EUR 1.5m annual costs savings from September 2024 onwards. Suominen expects EUR 2m one-off costs related to restructuring. Restructuring is expected to result in a termination of up to 10 positions in the headquarters and global support functions. Suominen announced new operating model end of last year and we view restructuring as a logical next step to align the structure of the company accordingly. Vara Research consensus is modelling EUR 36.7m adjusted EBITDA in 2025E, after EUR 26.5m in 2024E. Hence, mathematically, restructuring could give some low-single digit to consensus estimates. However, we note continued increase in pulp prices, which could mitigate the impact of the restructuring programme, at least in short-term. For Q2E, we are 2% ahead of consensus on top-line and 11% (EUR 0.7m) below on adjusted EBITDA.

8 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Slow profit improvement pace continued in Q1
Suominen's Q1 2024 adjusted EBITDA fell short of Vara Research consensus. The company has seen improving volumes and noted positive signs of demand in the market. We expect a gradual margin recovery, while high pulp prices create uncertainty. We trim our estimates due to expected higher raw material costs and derive a slightly lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 1.8-2.5 (2.0-2.7). Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

7 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Comparable EBITDA below consensus expectations in Q1 – positive signs of demand recovery
Suominen’s result were down slightly from Q4 and fell short of Vara Research consensus expectations. Despite challenging business environment, the management notes positive signals of demand recovery in the market. Sales volumes increased y/y in Q1 (especially in EMEA), while sale prices were down. Guidance of improving comparable EBITDA was maintained intact, while consensus has modelled EUR 30.3m in 2024E after EUR 15.8m in 2023. Initially, we anticipate consensus to revise down 2024 estimates to the tune of mid- to high-single digits.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
2 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: EUR 10m investment into Bethune – we are slightly below consensus on adjusted EBITDA for Q1E
Ahead of Suominen’s Q1 report, due on 7 May, we maintain our estimates intact. The company announced on 2 May that it will make EUR 10m investment in strengthening its capabilities in sustainable products in Bethune, USA. Investment will be completed in H1 2025. We have modelled EUR 10-11m annual capex for 2024E-25E. Initially, we see some upside to our capex estimates for 2024E-25E. For Q1E, we are 6% ahead of Vara consensus on sales and 7% below on adjusted EBITDA. We model Americas sales up 1% y/y while we expect Europe sales to be up 4% y/y. The focus in the report will be on management comments on market recovery and price levels going forward. Pulp prices have continued to increase which could put some margin pressure on Suominen, we believe. Suominen guides for improving comparable EBITDA in 2024 (from EUR 15.8m in 2023), which we view somewhat cautious given the low starting point. We model EUR 26m adjusted EBITDA in 2024E, a 66% increase y/y, leaving us 15% below consensus at EUR 31m. Depending of progress of self-help measures, there is possibility that the company could give additional color on its guidance in conjunction with its Q1 report.

7 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Taking marginal steps in the right direction
Suominen's Q4 comparable EBITDA remained virtually intact q/q, but fell short of Vara Research consensus expectations. Volumes improved slightly y/y, while the top line was burdened by lower sales prices. Management continues to see positive signs in the market, despite challenges in the macro environment. Suominen guides for improving comparable EBITDA for 2024, although from a low level of EUR 15.8m in 2023. We cut 2024E EBITDA by 9%, but expect sequentially improving comparable EBITDA for H1, due to a normalising market environment. We derive a slightly lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 2.0-2.7 (2.1-2.9). Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

6 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Q4 comparable EBITDA fell short of expectations – expects improving EBITDA in 2024
Suominen’s result were largely in line with Q3 and fell short of Vara Research consensus expectations. Management continues to see positive signals in its business environment, despite the weak global economy. Dividend proposal stands at EUR 0.10, slightly above consensus at EUR 0.08. We anticipate consensus to revise down 2024 estimates to the tune of 10%, while we note solid cash flow and slightly higher-than-anticipated DPS proposal.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
31 JAN 2024
Commissioned Research: Raw material prices are edging up
We expect Suominen to continue improving its profitability in Q4, driven by lower raw material prices and self-help measures. However, the recent uptick in pulp prices could cause some pressure in 2024 despite a possibly improving operating environment. We make only marginal revisions to our 2023 estimates, while we trim 2024E adjusted EBITDA by 6% due to higher pulp prices and FX. We derive a fair value range of EUR 2.1-2.9 (2.4-3.1), based on DCF- and multiples-based valuation approaches. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

30 OCT 2023
Commissioned Research: Signs of margin recovery from H1 lows
Suominen’s Q3 2023 results were an improvement from Q2, albeit slightly less than we and consensus had factored in, and management claims it is seeing positive signs in its business despite the challenging global economy. We expect the margin improvement to continue but lower our EBITDA estimates by 12% for 2023 and 7% for 2024. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Analysts: Harri Taittonen
27 OCT 2023
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Q3 EBITDA improving from Q2, 2023 outlook unchanged, positive signs tentatively indicated for 2024
Suominen’s result improved from Q2, albeit slightly less than factored in consensus estimates, and management claims it is seeing positive signs in its business environment, despite the weak global economy. We anticipate no material revisions to consensus estimates, based on the result and guidance.

Analysts: Harri Taittonen
10 AUG 2023
Commissioned Research: Outlook suggests margin recovery from H1 lows
Suominen reported weaker than expected Q2 earnings but continues to anticipate stronger earnings in H2. We lower our comparable EBITDA estimate for 2023 to EUR 20m, and our DCF- and multiples-based fair value range is reduced to EUR 2.6-3.3, owing to the lowered near-term outlook. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Analysts: Harri Taittonen

Equity analysts

Key persons

CEO: Tommi Björnman

CFO: Janne Silonsaari

Chairman: Jaakko Eskola

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
EURm
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
Total revenues
458.9
443.2
493.3
450.9
468.5
499.6
512.7
Ebitda (adj.)
60.92
47.00
15.34
15.81
24.60
31.40
34.86
Ebitda - margin
13.3%
10.6%
3.1%
3.5%
5.3%
6.3%
6.8%
EBIT (adj.)
39.5
26.9
-4.2
-2.8
6.1
12.4
15.6
EBIT (adj.) margin
8.6%
6.1%
-0.8%
-0.6%
1.3%
2.5%
3.0%
PTP (adj.)
33.9
26.6
-7.1
-8.7
2.9
9.4
13.1
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
30.11
20.74
-9.07
-8.02
1.75
7.32
10.21
Shareholders´ Equity
145.9
163.2
145.9
124.9
121.0
122.5
125.7
Net interest bearing debt
37.1
49.6
54.6
43.5
43.8
41.7
36.5
Net gearing
25.4%
30.4%
37.4%
34.8%
36.2%
34.0%
29.0%
Net debt/EBITDA
0.6
1.1
3.8
3.9
1.8
1.3
1.0
Free cash flow to equity
46.1
-4.4
4.3
19.7
9.1
11.4
15.7
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 8, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
EPS (adj.)
0.52
0.36
-0.16
-0.14
0.03
0.13
0.18
EPS (adj.) growth
13,268.1%
-31.6%
-143.7%
11.5%
121.8%
318.3%
39.5%
DPS
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.13
BVPS
2.5
2.8
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
P/E (adj.)
9.8
14.6
n.a.
n.a.
85.6
20.5
14.7
EV/Sales
0.73
0.79
0.46
0.46
0.41
0.38
0.36
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
5.47
7.48
14.93
13.14
7.86
6.09
5.34
EV/EBIT (adj.)
8.43
13.04
n.a.
n.a.
31.82
15.46
11.95
P/BV
2.03
1.85
1.20
1.32
1.24
1.22
1.19
Dividend yield
3.9%
3.9%
3.3%
3.5%
3.9%
4.7%
5.1%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
15.6%
-2.2%
2.4%
9.9%
3.7%
5.3%
8.1%
RoE
21.6%
13.4%
-9.0%
-9.4%
1.6%
6.0%
8.2%
ROIC
14.5%
9.7%
-1.5%
-1.1%
2.7%
5.6%
7.2%
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 8, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics