Suominen Oyj

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 111.86
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
SUY1V FH
SUY1V.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 1.92

Latest Reports

Suominen Oyj
30 JUN 2025
Commissioned Research: CoB to be the new CEO
Today, Suominen announced imminent change of the CEO. Mr. Charles Héaulmé, current Chair of the Board, has been appointed as the new CEO latest from 11 August 2025. Latest, Mr. Héaulmé acted as CEO of Huhtamäki while worked before that in Tetra Pak for 20 years. We view Mr. Héaulmé as a good fit for Suominen with relevant experience from converter businesses. We note Suominen is at the end of its current strategy period and the change of CEO  could indicate larger changes to the current strategy. Mr. Tommi Björnman will step down from the position of CEO as of today and the current CFO, Mr. Janne Silonsaari is appointed as interim CEO. Mr. Héaulmé will continue to serve as Chair of the Board until the next AGM of Suominen. In addition to possible larger strategy changes, we believe the change of CEO increases profit warning risk to some extent. We currently model 2025E comparable EBITDA of EUR  21m, 9% below Vara Research consensus and up 22% from EUR 17m in 2024 while Suominen expects its comparable EBITDA to increase y/y in 2025.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
8 MAY 2025
Commissioned Research: Market volatility to remain high in near term
Suominen's Q1 was fairly in line with Vara Research consensus, while the company also announced a large EUR 10m cost-savings programme. Sales volumes declined y/y, while pricing was supportive on the back of increased raw material prices and commercial execution. We still continue to expect tariff-induced uncertainties to become more visible from Q2 onwards, with higher Asia imported stock levels possibly burdening ASP development. We derive a slightly higher DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 1.6-2.3 (1.5-2.3) per Suominen share. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
7 MAY 2025
Commissioned Research: Q1 in line with consensus expectations - EUR 10m cost savings programme
Suominen Q1 comparable EBITDA of EUR 4.1m came fairly in line with Vara Research consensus expectation of EUR 4.2m. Net sales of EUR 118m increased 3% y/y and came 2% above consensus expectations, supported by higher raw materials and improved mix while burdened by lower volumes y/y. The company notes volatile market sentiment with cautious customers while it has seen stable demand for its products during Q1. FX had a slightly positive impact on top line while EUR 0.5m negative impact on EBITDA. Americas sales were stronger than we had anticipated while EMEA came in line with our expectations. Stock levels of Asian imported goods are increasing in both business areas which could burden pricing, we believe. The company maintained its guidance for increasing comparable EBITDA in 2025 intact, while consensus has modelled EUR 24.5m in 2025E after EUR 17.0m in 2024. In addition, the company initiates EUR 10m costs savings programme, fully implemented within 24 months. Initially, we expect muted consensus revisions while cost savings programme could be viewed positively.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
2 MAY 2025
Commissioned Research: Efficiency actions to counteract uncertainty
We expect modest Q1 sales growth of 1% for Suominen, driven mainly by price increases following higher pulp prices, and we expect a soft volume development. Weakened FX has likely burdened the Americas business in late Q1, while the overall tariff-induced uncertainties could affect the coming quarters. However, we expect self-help measures to mitigate some of the uncertainties in H2, and we expect a 0.6pp EBITDA margin improvement for 2025E, with 4% sales growth. We derive a fair value range of EUR 1.5-2.3 (1.6-2.4) per Suominen share. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
6 MAR 2025
Commissioned Research: Volatility in trade flows to remain an issue
Suominen's Q4 comparable EBITDA fell clearly short of Vara Research consensus, owing to volume pressure and higher raw material costs. The company expects solid end-market demand to continue, however increasing import volumes from low-cost countries and possible supply-chain issues linked to US tariffs could hamper margins in 2025. The company continues to improve its operational efficiency and new investments should start to support earnings from H2 onwards. We derive a lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 1.6-2.4 (1.8-2.6). Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
5 MAR 2025
Commissioned Research: Soft Q4 owing to slight volume decline
Suominen Q4 comparable EBITDA of EUR 4.2m fell 40% short of Vara Research consensus expectation of EUR 7m owing to slight volume decline y/y. The company expects its target market to remain solid in 2025 in the short term although some uncertainties related to global economic sentiment remain. Sales prices and mix improved y/y in Q4, while FX had a slight negative impact. Americas sales were weaker than we had anticipated while EMEA came above our expectations. The company has resolved the operational issues seen in Q3 while competition from low-cost countries increased, mainly in Europe. Board of directors propose no dividend for 2024 while consensus had expected EUR 0.02 per share. The company guides for increasing comparable EBITDA in 2025, while consensus has modelled EUR 30.7m in 2025E after EUR 17.0m in 2024. We note operational issues in Q3 while we do not know if the company has been able to resolve these during the quarter. Initially, we anticipate consensus to take down 2025 estimates more than 10%.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
28 FEB 2025
Commissioned Research: All eyes on margin trajectory going into 2025
For Q4, we expect the gradual volume and price improvement to continue, while variable costs could decline with lower pulp prices. However, we note a recent uptick in pulp prices and clearly positive momentum with three consecutive market pulp price increases from multiple pulp majors. Hence, we expect Suominen to benefit from lower pulp prices in H1 2025 too, while expected raw material headwinds in H2 could be mitigated by self-help measures and new investments in Alicante and Bethune. Our DCF- and multiples-based fair value range is EUR 1.8-2.6 (1.7-2.4). Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
7 NOV 2024
Commissioned Research: A blip in the improving trend
Suominen's Q3 earnings fell significantly short of Vara Research consensus, mainly due to a EUR ~3m negative impact from operational issues during the quarter. The operational issues should not have a major impact on Q4 figures, as we understand it. The top line grew 5% y/y and was supported by improved volumes and sales prices. The market outlook remains stable and we expect a gradual volume recovery going forward, with self-help measures and new investments in Alicante and Bethune offering support for the bottom line in the latter part of 2025 and beyond. We expect falling pulp prices to support earnings, as sales prices tend to follow with a lag. Our DCF- and multiples-based fair value range is EUR 1.7-2.4 (1.8-2.5). Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
6 NOV 2024
Commissioned Research: Soft Q3 partly explained by operational issues – guidance requires resolving of operational issues
Suominen’s results turned into sequential decline in Q3 due to operational issues and fell short of Vara Research consensus expectations. The company expects its target market to remain stable in the short term although some uncertainties related to global economic sentiment remain. Sales volumes, prices and margins increased y/y in Q3, while FX had a negative impact. Americas sales were weaker than we had anticipated while EMEA came above our expectations. Guidance of improving comparable EBITDA was maintained intact, while consensus has modelled EUR 24.4m in 2024E after EUR 15.8m in 2023. We note operational issues in Q3 while we do not know if the company has been able to resolve these during the quarter. Initially, we anticipate consensus to take down 2024 estimates more than 10% with more muted revisions for 2025E. In order to reach its guidance, Suominen has to deliver above EUR 3m comparable EBITDA in Q4, while we have anticipated EUR 6.6m.

Companies: Suominen Oyj
Suominen Oyj
1 NOV 2024
Commissioned Research: Gradual profitability improvement to continue
We expect Suominen to deliver another quarter of improving profitability, driven by increased volumes and sales prices y/y. Declining raw material prices will likely alleviate some margin pressure going forward, as we expect sales prices to lag pulp prices. Overcapacity, especially in the European market, could partly counteract the otherwise improving operating environment. We trim 2024E-26E sales by 1% and cut 2024E adjusted EBITDA by 6%. We raise 2025E-26E EBITDA by 3-4%. Our fair value range increases slightly to EUR 1.8-2.5 (1.7-2.4), based on a combination of DCF- and multiples-based valuation approaches. - Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.

Companies: Suominen Oyj

Equity analysts

Associate Director

Key persons

CEO: Tommi Björnman

CFO: Janne Silonsaari

Chairman: Jaakko Eskola

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
EURm
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025E
2026E
2027E
Total revenues
443.2
493.3
450.9
462.3
464.9
482.3
498.7
Ebitda (adj.)
47.00
15.34
15.81
17.01
20.71
29.12
35.69
Ebitda - margin
10.6%
3.1%
3.5%
3.7%
4.5%
6.0%
7.2%
EBIT (adj.)
26.9
-4.2
-2.8
-1.4
2.5
9.9
16.5
EBIT (adj.) margin
6.1%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.3%
0.5%
2.1%
3.3%
PTP (adj.)
26.6
-7.1
-8.7
-5.5
-2.9
6.0
13.1
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
20.74
-9.07
-8.02
-5.46
-1.40
4.71
10.23
Shareholders´ Equity
163.2
145.9
124.9
117.6
110.2
114.9
122.2
Net interest bearing debt
49.6
54.6
43.5
60.4
73.9
74.1
65.5
Net gearing
30.4%
37.4%
34.8%
51.4%
67.1%
64.4%
53.6%
Net debt/EBITDA
1.1
3.8
3.9
3.5
5.0
2.5
1.8
Free cash flow to equity
-4.4
4.3
19.7
-10.4
-10.5
2.8
14.4
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
58.3
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 8, 2025
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025E
2026E
2027E
EPS (adj.)
0.36
-0.16
-0.14
-0.09
-0.02
0.08
0.18
EPS (adj.) growth
-31.6%
-143.7%
11.5%
31.9%
74.4%
437.7%
117.1%
DPS
0.20
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.06
BVPS
2.8
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
P/E (adj.)
14.6
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
23.7
10.9
EV/Sales
0.79
0.46
0.46
0.42
0.40
0.39
0.36
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
7.48
14.93
13.14
11.36
8.97
6.38
4.97
EV/EBIT (adj.)
13.04
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
73.98
18.75
10.76
P/BV
1.85
1.20
1.32
1.13
1.01
0.97
0.92
Dividend yield
3.9%
3.3%
3.5%
0.0%
0.0%
2.6%
3.1%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
-2.2%
2.4%
12.0%
-7.8%
-12.1%
-0.1%
10.2%
RoE
13.4%
-9.0%
-9.4%
-4.4%
-6.5%
4.2%
8.6%
ROIC
9.7%
-1.5%
-1.1%
-0.6%
1.0%
4.0%
6.6%
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 8, 2025
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates