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COMPANY
RECOMMENDATION
TARGET PRICE
PUBLICATION DATE
LAST 12 MONTH REC
DISCLAIMER
A.P. Møller - Mærsk
Hold
USD 18,700.00
15 Sep 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Lars Heindorff
We define Hold as a rating assigned to a share that is trading in line with our target price and/or where we see no compelling investment case.
Ocean's rate volatility remains the key risk. We calculate that a ±1pp change in the yearly growth rate could affect group EBITDA by roughly USD ±350m. Demand during 2026 has proved surprisingly resilient so far. Tariffs have caused changes to cargo flows, supporting higher growth, which – if this continues in 2026 – could lift demand beyond expectations. Maersk has improved Terminal operations and earnings. If port congestion continues or even increases in 2026-27, there could be some upside to our Terminal estimates. Generally lower economic growth will likely have a negative impact on demand, which has been particularly supported by Chinese exports during 2025-26. A slowdown in Asian exports will have material negative implications for earnings, in our view.
A.P. Møller-Mærsk (APM) is a Danish transportation and logistics conglomerate. Its main asset is Mærsk Line, the world's second-largest container shipping company. After a major strategic change, APM has divested its oil-related units to focus on integrating its transportation activities: Mærsk Line (Ocean), APM Terminals (the world's third-largest container port operator) and Logistics & Services, which includes a full-range transport offering from freight forwarding to third-party logistics and warehousing.
We maintain our Hold rating with a target price of DKK 18,700, and we see a high likelihood of another guidance upgrade. We estimate 2026 EBITDA of USD 14.5bn, well above company guidance for USD 10.5-12.5bn and consensus at USD 12.7bn, and we still believe that our new forecast is fairly conservative. Our unchanged Hold rating reflects a balance between short-term earnings momentum and our relative- and P/BV- based fair value of DKK 18,716 (17,600) being well below the current share price, mostly based on a long-term ROIC average of ~6%, for which we apply only 0.5x P/BV, pointing to DKK ~14,200, while our relative valuation indicates DKK ~29,200.
AAK
Buy
SEK 220.00
26 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Nicklas Skogman
We see a favourable risk/reward outlook over the next year. While CCF volumes may stay soft due to high consumer prices for chocolate in the near term, we expect a recovery beyond Q1. We are also optimistic about FI volumes ahead. More flexible pricing in contract bids could boost FI volumes without significantly affecting EBIT/kg, in our view. India (~10% of volumes) and Sweden have cut food VAT, which may support demand. As for Nigeria's shea nut export ban, we do not expect a material impact on AAK's 2026 profits, given the dramatic fall in domestic shea nut prices.
We believe that the main downside risks are: 1) lost volume or margin headwinds from increased price pressure in AAK's key segments; 2) working capital requirements continuing to increase; and 3) geopolitical unrest disrupting sourcing.
AAK refines vegetable oils for specialised products that meet its customers' requirements, such as substitutes for dairy fat and cocoa butter, trans-fat-free fillings in chocolate and confectionery products, and products for the cosmetics industry. AAK has three business areas: Food Ingredients (FI), Chocolate & Confectionery Fats (CCF) and Technical Products and Feed (TPF). Its main competitors are Cargill, Fuji Oil and Loders Croklaan (part of Bunge Group).
After having held up well through a long period of cocoa price volatility and weak end-market demand for chocolate, price pressure hit AAK's Chocolate & Confectionery Fats (CCF) division with force in Q3. This means that price pressure is now a major headwind for both Food Ingredients (FI) and CCF, which together represent ~95% of AAK's EBIT. With our updated estimates, we assume that AAK will not return to y/y EBIT growth until the middle of next year and that EBIT growth will only be 2.5% in 2027. For 2028, we pencil in a decent recovery, resulting in 8% EBIT growth. While the inflection point for earnings now seems rather distant, we argue that the valuation at 10.6x 2027E EBIT should be attractive for patient investors, and we believe that the risk of additional negative surprises has diminished. We reiterate Buy with a lower multiples-based target price of SEK 220 (240) owing to our negative estimate revisions.
ABB
Buy
USD 1,175.00
21 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Magnus Kruber, CFA
Over the past few years, ABB has transformed from a complex, matrix-run organisation into an agile, focused, profitable and high-quality company, in our view, exposed to multiple highly attractive secular growth trends. While we acknowledge that much of the company's transformation journey is now behind us, and that the strong share price performance has driven the valuation to elevated levels, we find ABB's underlying growth drivers compelling. Adding to this a cyclical recovery and further self-help opportunities, we forecast significant operational EBITA growth until at least 2027.
One key concern for investors has been the rapid build-out of capacity to satisfy demand from the data centre boom. If demand from data centres were to dry up, this could result in significant price pressure, especially if demand in other end markets is insufficient to fill the gap. In addition, while the company has so far avoided the impact from delayed decision-making related to tariffs, we cannot rule out that such an effect could materialise over the coming quarter as new tariffs are added, creating additional uncertainty for customers.
ABB is a global industrial conglomerate. It operates through four business areas: Electrification, which offers a wide range of products and solutions across the low- and medium-voltage electrical value chain; Motion, which sells motors, generators and drives; Process Automation, which offers products and solutions to automate process industries; and Robotics & Discrete Automation, which offers industrial robots, as well as products and solutions to automate industrial processes. ABB has operations in more than 100 countries.
Following solid Q3 2026 results, we make limited changes to our 2027-28 estimates. We reiterate our SEK 1,175 target price, based on the average of our EV/EBIT valuation (SEK 1,050) and our DCF model (SEK 1,300). We reiterate Buy.
Absolent
Buy
SEK 278.00
21 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Anders Åkerblom
We believe Absolent is set to return to its former earnings growth trend. First, with the number of production units down to six versus ten, we foresee lower extraordinary costs in the short term and lower SG&A structurally. Second, the underlying market is showing signs of recovery, and order intake is starting to grow in Industrial, and thus we expect volumes to rebound. Driven by operational measures and new product launches, we continue to believe that the company will show superior earnings growth in the coming years, corresponding to a 2024-27E adjusted EBITA CAGR of ~8% (~38% in 2025-27E) – with M&A offering upside potential.
We see downside risks from a weak macroeconomic climate, in particular within the important automotive end market, as well as changes in customer behaviour.
Absolent is a ventilation and filter company focused on providing air pollution solutions such as filters, dust and oil collectors, and fume extractors, among others. During processing of food and in industrial application, particles and gases that are harmful both to humans and the environment are released into the air. Pollution is linked to seven million deaths every year, and factories often have ten times the level of air pollution output compared with cities. This is generated during processes such as milling, die casting, welding, laser cutting, deep frying and roasting, which release oil mist, oil smoke, VOC and dust into the air. A system for air cleaning is required to ensure that employees are not harmed while working in a polluted environment.
We lower 2026E-28E adj. EBIT by 2-6%, after a largely in-line report in which Absolent beat our adj. EBIT forecast by 2%. While we argue that Absolent's longer-term earnings power was clearly demonstrated in the 570bp y/y adj. EBIT margin growth in the key Industrial segment, we are reluctant to extrapolate this fully owing to our view that a favourable regional mix provided meaningful benefits. We also attempt to balance some near-term headwinds from launch-related costs and profitability challenges in Commercial Kitchen amid weak end-market demand. We remain positive on the group's longer-term prospects, with new product families continuing to gain traction and operational initiatives progressing, supporting 2027E organic growth of ~8%. As launch-related costs fade and execution improves, we continue to see scope for a gradual return towards historical profitability levels. At ~11x 2027E adjusted EV/EBIT, we view the valuation as undemanding, supporting favourable risk/reward. We reiterate Buy and lower our multiples-based target price to SEK 278 (287).
AcadeMedia
Buy
SEK 130.00
11 Sep 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Philip Ekengren
We believe the market overestimates Swedish political risk and underappreciates AcadeMedia's stable, predominantly publicly-funded earnings base, growing international diversification and substantial M&A capacity. AcadeMedia's proven acquisition strategy is structurally supported and its intentional ambition should simultaneously lower its political exposure while enabling further growth. The company's predictable cash generation and low leverage provide significant flexibility for continued value-accretive capital deployment.
We see three downside risks: 1) AcadeMedia's growth strategy depends on successful acquisition execution, and weaker-than-expected integration or performance in international markets could weigh on earnings; 2) a continued decline in birth rates could weigh on student volumes over time, particularly within preschool operations; and 3) difficulties in attracting and retaining qualified teachers and staff could negatively affect the group.
AcadeMedia is a leading European education provider, with operations spanning preschool, compulsory education, upper secondary education and adult education. It is active in schools throughout the Swedish educational system and in preschools a number of European countries, including Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, the UK and Germany, with more than 779 educational units in total. Based on the ~124,000 students and participants currently attending its different learning centres, AcadeMedia is the largest independent education provider in Northern Europe.
We initiate coverage of AcadeMedia with a Buy recommendation and a target price of SEK 130. We forecast an adjusted EBITA CAGR of 7% over 2025/26-2028/29.
AddLife
Buy
SEK 220.00
22 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Gustav Berneblad
In the long term, we see several attractive traits, including AddLife's leading position in a highly fragmented and non-cyclical market. A recovery in elective surgeries after COVID-19 should bolster demand for years to come, driving organic growth above historical levels, in our view. After several years of operational and balance sheet improvements under the new management, we argue that the pieces are now coming together. Group margins are running meaningfully above historical levels, with Homecare no longer appearing dilutive and AddVision showing a clear recovery trajectory. Although sometimes misunderstood by the market, management has undertaken significant decentralisation efforts following the organisational missteps of the previous regime, both operationally and within the M&A function. Given a stronger operational platform, improved profitability and a more decentralised acquisition organisation (responsibility now primarily resides with the five business area managers, supported by former CEOs and experienced business unit leaders), we believe AddLife is entering the next phase of its growth journey, where M&A can again become a more meaningful contributor to earnings growth. We see ample upside from future M&A.
The main risks are related to regulation, dependence on suppliers and high leverage.
AddLife is one of the foremost independent distributors in the European life sciences sector, focused on developing and acquiring market-leading niche companies with offerings aimed primarily at the healthcare industry, from research to medical care. Following its spin-off from Addtech in 2016, AddLife has grown from 24 subsidiaries and a Nordic focus to 85 subsidiaries and a stronger European presence. In the process, the company has gained a competitive edge, offering a wide array of products from myriad suppliers, while also being able to provide tailor-made solutions to meet customer needs.
After recent M&A, we raise 2027E-28E adjusted EBITA by 1% following the overall in-line Q3, with its 4% organic growth and 11% y/y adjusted EBITA growth. AddLife said demand recovered in September with strong order intake, and we view Q3 as a solid datapoint confirming that it is now moving in the right direction. We pencil in EBITA accelerating to mid-teens growth in Q4. Longer term, the recent initiatives taken for the larger platforms have resulted in a much more decentralised setup, with margins trending well above historical levels. Moreover, with the new M&A organisation in place, we believe AddLife has returned to its roots, and expect M&A to accelerate. We reiterate Buy and lift our multiples-based target price to SEK 220 (210).
Addnode
Buy
SEK 78.00
26 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Thomas Nilsson
Addnode has a solid track record of compounding growth through bolt-on acquisitions. We assume 6% sales growth annually, driven by future unannounced M&A, which we argue is conservative in relation to Addnode's growth history. We argue that the company can raise the share of proprietary software sales in Team D3 and Microdesk over time, thus improving the profitability of the overall group. We also think that the share of recurring revenue will continue to outpace the growth of other revenue categories, which should contribute to increasing operating leverage and higher margins in the long term.
We believe the largest risks for Addnode pertain to: 1) Autodesk's changing transaction model and poor visibility regarding organic sales development in Design Management for the next 18 months; 2) the negative impact on cash flow and higher NWC implied by the company's changing transaction model; and 3) AI's deflationary effect on software development costs, which could disrupt current dominant SaaS players, including Addnode's partners, Autodesk and Dassault Systèmes.
Addnode is a leading value-added reseller (VAR) of business-critical software and a service provider for companies spanning the design, construction and manufacturing industries. It is a leading partner and provider of Autodesk software in both Europe and the US, as well as Dassault Systèmes software in Europe. Addnode also has proprietary software, primarily targeting the Swedish public sector. Acquisitions are a central part of the company's growth strategy, and Addnode has historically grown more via acquisitions than organically.
Following the Q3 report, we raise our adjusted EBITA estimates for 2026-28 by ~4%, primarily reflecting a stronger margin outlook in Design Management. We also see support for organic growth in 2027 from an increased number of three-year Autodesk software agreements coming up for renewal. We raise our multiples-based target price to SEK 78 ( 63) and reiterate Buy.
Addtech
Buy
SEK 380.00
23 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Gustav Berneblad
Despite LTM multiple expansion, we argue that Addtech's attractive and green end-market exposures, including wind power, power grids and batteries, should yield an appealing long-term organic growth rate of 5-6%. Together with the sector's highest M&A activity, this should drive a 14% EBITA CAGR for the next three years, which we believe justifies the multiples. Addtech's strong balance sheet (with net debt/EBITDA at 1.5x) also allows the company to consider larger targets.
The main downside risks to our case, in our view, include the unsuccessful integration of acquisitions, shifts in end-market demand, or the company being unsuccessful in terms of finding and acquiring companies.
Addtech consists of more than 100 operating companies, all of which strive to be market leaders in their niches. Most subsidiaries sell high-tech components to Nordic industrial companies. The companies are held together by a culture in which skills and technical competence are central and where the flexibility of a small company is combined with the network and financial resources of a group.
We raise adjusted EBITA by 1% for 2027/28-2028/29 on the back of recent M&A and firmer-than-expected organic growth, the latter having supported the 10% y/y adjusted EBITA growth in Q2. Looking ahead, we are incrementally more positive towards the set-up in H2, when we ought to see accelerating sales volumes in Energy, easing comps in Industry and continued broad-based solid demand across Electrification and Automation. Hence, we pencil in adjusted EBITA of 19% and 17% for Q3 and Q4, respectively. With net debt/EBITDA of 0.9x for 2026/27E, along with management reiterating that the M&A pipeline is strong, we see a solid foundation for sustained strong growth. We reiterate Buy and raise our multiples-based target price to SEK 380 (378).
Admicom
Hold
EUR 32.00
09 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Patrick Campbell
We define Hold as a rating assigned to a share that is trading in line with our fair value and/or where we see no compelling investment case.
Key downside risks: Economic uncertainty in the construction end market, tightening competition, M&A integration risks, inability to recruit personnel to drive growth and risks related to cyberthreats. Key upside risks: A faster-than-expected recovery in the construction end market, a public takeover, faster digitalisation in the construction industry and addressable market expansion.
Admicom provides cloud-based software solutions and accounting services for the construction and building services engineering industry, mainly in Finland. More than 90% of the company's revenues are recurring monthly invoicing. The company has set a long-term ARR target of EUR 100m for 2030 and aims to expand to several international markets during this decade.
Admicom's Q3 results were strong, supported by price increases and lower post-change negotiation costs. Sales of EUR 9.7m were 1% above our estimate, while adjusted EBITDA of EUR 4.1m was 12% ahead of our estimate for a margin of 42.0% (+2.4pp y/y). Importantly, ARR (EUR 38.6m) grew 5% y/y and 4% q/q, despite an elevated level of churn. The ARR guidance was reiterated, given the possibility of M&A in Q4 and new sales booking conversions. We raise our adjusted EBITDA estimates by 4% for 2026-27 and reiterate our Hold recommendation with a DCF-based target price of EUR 32.
AFRY
No Rating
05 Feb 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Adrian Elmlund
We suspend coverage of AFRY owing to changes in analyst coverage. Our most recent recommendation on AFRY was Hold.
Coverage suspended.
AFRY is a technical consultancy firm based in Stockholm, Sweden. Its operations are structured into five main business units: Infrastructure, Industrial & Digital Solutions, Process Industries, Energy, and Management Consulting. Sweden is its largest regional exposure and accounts for approximately half of AFRY's sales, while the Nordics and Switzerland are considered its core markets.
See Investment case section above. There are no estimate changes in this report.
Akastor
Buy
NOK 23.00
26 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sondre Snersrud
The investment case hinges on Akastor's long-running track record of active ownership, restructuring abilities and a disciplined approach to realising value from its concentrated portfolio above book value. With the ultimate goal of returning proceeds to shareholders, and given an increasingly mature portfolio that is nearing full realisation, with a net cash position and low capital expenditures on the horizon, we believe Akastor is transitioning towards a more shareholder-friendly era. Adding multiple near-term catalysts via a realisation of NES Fircroft, the gradual monetisation of the listed HMH stake and improvements on the horizon for AKOFS Offshore, we believe Akastor is well equipped to realise value and redistribute strong dividends to shareholders.
Akastor's portfolio companies operate almost exclusively in the oilfield services industry, making revenues and valuations highly sensitive to oil price movements and global E&P spending cycles. This includes geopolitical tensions and the broader market environment, which could impair Akastor's ability to conclude transactions.
Akastor ASA is an oil service-focused investment company headquartered in Oslo, operating with a flexible mandate for active ownership and long-term value creation. The company was formed through the demerger of the former Aker Solutions group in 2014, and its largest shareholder is Aker ASA, with a 36.7% stake. Akastor's portfolio is concentrated around two industrial holdings in HMH (~36.2% ownership), a full-service drilling equipment and aftermarket services provider, recently listed on Nasdaq in April 2026, and AKOFS Offshore. The other financial investments include NES Fircroft, Aqualis, Føn Energy Services and IKM Løfteteknikk. Akastor's strategy is to develop each portfolio company as an independent business through active board-level ownership, with the ultimate objective of returning capital to shareholders upon realisation of assets.
Following the recent sale of DDWs last vessel and a full USD 350m dividend recapitalisation of NES Fircroft, we estimate Akastor to receive USD~77m in upstream cash, or NOK ~2.7 per share, which we expect Akastor to transform into a sixth consecutive payout. This corresponds to ~20% of current market value. Looking beyond the near-term distribution trigger, we believe the NES Fircroft recapitalisation could be an early indicator of a pending transaction, leveraging the remaining book value equity stake of NOK ~0.5 per Akastor share, which currently trades at an implied ~40% discount to key peers. With a cleaner and exit-ready portfolio maturing, facing some interesting catalysts in the year ahead, we believe the 0.81x P/NAV on mark-to-market value presents an attractive ticket to a rapidly unfolding redistribution case. We stick to Buy with a trimmed 10% risked fair NAV target price of NOK 23 (24) per share, reflecting ~1.25x market NAV.
Aker ASA
Buy
NOK 1,470.00
17 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sondre Snersrud
Aker ASA has demonstrated an impressive ability to shift its legacy portfolio towards energy transition, digitalisation and AI, with a track record of capitalising on megatrends. We see Aker BP as the high-growth backbone of the portfolio, likely to support Aker ASA with funding sources through strong cash flow, and we argue that Aker ASA offers investors a unique mix of risk-adjusted returns through its incubation of new ventures "in-house" while maintaining an opportunistic mindset on valuation crystallisation. With record-high visibility on the portfolio value following several IPOs and the price discovery on Nscale, we argue Aker ASA should trade in line with other Nordic investment companies such as Industrivärden and Investor, which are valued close to NAV and fundamental value.
Aker ASA is heavily exposed to fluctuations in commodity markets and interest rates can adversely affect its equity value, while technological and execution risks on its new ventures could lead to lower and slower growth than expected.
Aker ASA is an investment company that exercises active ownership through an industrial portfolio of listed holdings and financial investments in unlisted companies, focused on the areas of energy, digitalisation, sustainable proteins, environment, marine biotech and finance.
The Q2 report marked no change of course, despite the privatisation plan for AkerBiomarine (~78%) and the Cognite-driven unlisted NAV uptick of NOK ~8bn q/q. Nscale, together with a massive NOK ~15.3bn expected cash pile following the Cognite deal, raise two clear triggers moving into H2 2026; 1) IPO news, and 2) the allocation of NOK 15.3bn held in cash, making up ~16% of the current market value. Adding the Monarch LOI to Nscale's >280,000 contracted GPU portfolio, the backlog prospects go from USD ~35bn to USD ~87bn, which, compared to CoreWeave and Nebius, raise the currently sector-weighted market value potential towards USD ~37bn, lifting the NOK 432 per share Series C-based valuation to NOK 1,034 per Aker share. We stick to Buy and raise our NAV-based target price to NOK 1,470 (1,400).
Aker BP
Buy
USD 430.00
30 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sondre Snersrud
Hydrocarbons are becoming harder to find and the size of each discovery is declining. This gives operators with in-depth local knowledge a competitive edge. Given Aker BP's multiple hub positions and operating capabilities, which allow it to reduce development costs through hub clustering, we believe inorganic value can be captured. We believe Aker BP is well positioned to create shareholder value through continued portfolio optimisation and growth projects, centred around low-cost barrels through tie-backs on existing infrastructure, M&A and greenfield discoveries on the NCS. Investment cases with high growth prospects and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy are a rare breed; in our view, Aker BP is one such case.
Downside risks: Operating in a commodity market, Aker BP is heavily exposed to oil and gas prices, which are a key swing factor for earnings; it is also implicitly exposed to the global macro environment, with increasing trade tensions adding risk to future demand. Changes to laws, regulations and political agendas can also affect supply.
Aker BP is a pureplay E&P company with exploration, development and production activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). In terms of production, Aker BP is one of the largest independent oil companies in Europe. It has a balanced portfolio and operates the Valhall, Ula, Ivar Aasen, Alvheim and Skarv field hubs, in addition to holding significant stakes in Johan Sverdrup (31.7%) and the Yggdrasil development project. The company is headquartered at Fornebu, outside Oslo, and has offices in Stavanger, Trondheim, Harstad and Sandnessjøen. Aker BP ASA is owned by Aker ASA (21%), BP (15.9%), the Lundin family (14.4%) and other shareholders.
Aker BP delivered another quarter of solid underlying operations and stable guidance, with EBITDA of USD ~3.4bn largely as expected. Unit costs ticked up on FX and electricity costs, lifting full-year guidance to USD ~8.5/boe (USD ~8/boe), while all other guidance items remain intact. With production now firmly expected at the midpoint of the 380-400kboepd range, we lift our 2026 estimate slightly to ~388kboepd (384). We also factor in a higher gas share of ~25% from the new field mix. Yggdrasil and PWP Fenris are progressing well, now estimated to deliver first oil in mid-2027, supporting a material production uptick in 2027 and progress towards the 2028 target of ~525kboepd. With USD >14/bbl premiums to sold barrels and both futures and spot prices running ahead of our estimates, we see solid earnings and deleveraging momentum. We reiterate Buy and raise our multiples-based target price to NOK 430 (420).
Aker Solutions
Hold
NOK 38.00
29 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sondre Snersrud
We define Hold as a rating assigned to a share that is trading in line with our fair value and/or where we see no compelling investment case.
Higher E&P spending on new development and higher-for-longer oil prices represent upside risks to earnings, which could be further boosted by successful delivery of ongoing projects, realising inherent incentive fees in the contracts. On the flip side, project and supply chain disruptions could increase the risk to earnings and delivery. In the longer term, softer E&P spending could be a risk factor for backlog sustainability.
Aker Solutions ASA is a Norway-based provider of integrated solutions, products and services to the global energy industry. The company owns and manages the group's subsidiaries. Aker Solutions' activities are divided into three reporting segments: 1) Renewables and Field Development, which designs and delivers renewable energy solutions for offshore wind, hydrogen, and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); 2) Electrification, Maintenance and Modifications (EMM), which optimises field life solutions, provides a range of maintenance and modifications services for offshore infrastructure and offers decarbonisation and environmentally sound offerings including electrification solutions; and 3) Subsea, which supplies a spectrum of intelligent subsea products, systems and solutions globally, as well as subsea lifecycle services.
Aker Solutions reported Q3 revenues of NOK ~13.5bn, ~5% below Bloomberg consensus, offset by a stronger-than-expected R&FD margin and a OneSubsea contribution coming in ~31% above consensus. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to NOK 53-55bn (NOK 50-55bn) along with EBITDA margin guidance to 7.5-8% (7.5%). Moreover, management launched its 2027 guidance for revenue of NOK 35-40bn (consensus: NOK ~39.4bn). OneSubsea continues to deliver strong quarterly results and robust order momentum, with EBITDA up ~13% y/y and a book-to-bill of 1.16x. Therefore, we raise 2026E slightly but lower 2027E revenue by ~8% to NOK ~37.8bn, with EBITDA of NOK ~3.7bn. We stick to our Hold recommendation and lower our SOTP-based target price to NOK 38 (40).
AL Sydbank
Buy
DKK 818.00
28 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Andreas Håkansson
AL Sydbank is in the process of merging Sydbank with AL Bank, including Vestjysk Bank. We see upside to the announced 2028 synergy targets and the 2028 financial targets. On top of this, we see room for attractive capital distribution to shareholders as AL Sydbank works with the internal capital model. In combination with an attractive fundamental and relative valuation, we see scope for attractive returns to shareholders.
Key downside risks: Given its high sensitivity to changes in short-term interest rates, more rate cuts than we pencil in would likely drag the share price down. If wage inflation were to stay elevated in Denmark for a prolonged time while interest rates came down, this could also add pressure on earnings, and hence the share price. An economic downturn with large unexpected loan losses could also trigger a drop in the share price. The merger with ALBank entails risk of unforeseen hiccups that could cause economic losses for ALSydbank.
AL Sydbank provides banking products and services to individuals and businesses, primarily in Denmark but also in Germany. The bank's offering includes products and services such as loans, savings accounts, cards, pension funds, life insurance, payment services, financing and investment services. Its headquarters are in southern Denmark, but it operates across the whole country.
Owing to its balance sheet structure, Sydbank is one of the most rate-sensitive banks in the Nordic region. The main difference versus peers is its exposure to Cibor-linked loans rather than mortgage loans, where margins remain under pressure. In this preview, we include September's 25bp rate hike and two additional upcoming hikes, driving an 8% NII and 7% EPS upgrade. This high rate sensitivity should support NII in both 2027 and 2028. In combination with its best-in-class cost trajectory, supported by synergies from its in-market merger, this makes AL Sydbank one of our most preferred banks in the Nordic region and our most favoured in Denmark. We raise our Gordon growth-based target price to DKK 818 (740)and reiterate our Buy rating.
Alfa Laval
Hold
SEK 560.00
28 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Magnus Kruber, CFA
We define Hold as a rating assigned to a share that is trading in line with our fair value and/or where we see no compelling investment case.
Key downside risks include lower order momentum, driven by potential customer delays in placing large orders due to geopolitical uncertainties in the Energy business. In addition, we could see slower-than-expected order momentum in Marine, should we see a peace deal in the Middle East, which could trigger lower vessel utilisation, lower freight rates and ultimately lower vessel contracting at shipyards. Lower-than-expected margin progression is possible, should we see a deteriorating mix effect from project invoicing. Key upside risks include stronger-than-expected order growth momentum through the back end of 2027, propelled by a recovery in traditional oil & gas industries, as well as data centres in Energy. Furthermore, the company is exploring select interesting growth opportunities with new product launches in Food and Pharma, which could convert to higher order growth than currently factored. Lastly, we believe the underlying momentum excluding product tankers to shipyards globally has yet to convert to Alfa Laval order intake in the Ocean business area, which we could also be underestimating through 2027.
Alfa Laval provides product solutions for heat transfer, separation and fluid handling. It targets general industrial end markets, with an overweight towards the marine, food, pharma and oil & gas industries. Alfa Laval's market shares range between 10% and 30% globally and its key selling points include highly engineered products with strong brand recognition. About one-quarter of group sales come from aftermarket operations, where Alfa Laval services its large, global installed base.
We make limited revisions to 2026E-28E EBITA, but we cut our multiples-based target price to SEK 560 (610), implying 16x 2027E EV/EBIT, broadly in line with the ten-year average, to account for a moderation in order intake growth that we expect over the coming quarters. We reiterate Hold.
ALK-Abello
Buy
DKK 280.00
07 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Peter Hugreffe Ankersen
The ALK-Abello stock has been hit by uncertainty around the German market outlook for 2027 and the stock has plummeted by more than 20% since its peak in June 2026. We argue that it is time to move beyond Germany concerns and focus on the multiple growth pockets, including those not sufficiently in focus. We believe ALK-Abello has the potential to return to 14-15% sales growth from 2028-30, following a dip in 2027 due to the German rebate reform, and with a substantial growth outlook beyond 2030 as well. Furthermore, we believe the company has a significant cash-return potential which could accumulate to DKK 21bn towards 2035. We consequently raise our recommendation to Buy (Hold) with a DCF-derived target price of DKK 280 implying an upside of 30%-plus to the current share price.
Key downside risks: Tablets (Acarizax/Odactra/Itulazax in particular) and anaphylactics (Jext and neffy) delivering disappointing sales; intensified competition in key markets; production problems; and pipeline failures, especially the ALK peanut SLIT ph III project.
ALK-Abello A/S is a Denmark-based company specialising in allergy immunotherapy (AIT). Its portfolio includes allergy vaccines, emergency treatments and allergy diagnostics products, such as tablet vaccines, sublingual vaccines, subcutaneous vaccines and allergen extracts for allergy testing, such as skin-prick tests. The company operates globally through subsidiaries, production units and distributors in Canada, Germany, France, the US and China, among others.
Based on the long-term growth outlook, we hike our estimates for 2028 and beyond. Based on our DCF valuation, we have a target price of DKK 280.
Alleima
Buy
SEK 117.00
27 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Anders Åkerblom
Our investment case rests on three pillars. 1) We sense a misperception of Alleima in the market, so, in our view, the share is unjustifiably underpriced. 2) We see appealing organic growth avenues – the company is the No. 1 global player in industrial heating, umbilical tubing and steam generator tubing and the No. 2 in medical wire. It caters to structural growth markets set to yield high-single-digit market CAGRs in the coming years. 3) We find its financials appealing, with Alleima having delivered adjusted EBIT of SEK ~2bn in 2024, ~70% above the 2015-19 average of SEK ~1.1bn per year, while showing a more resilient and diversified earnings profile. Alleima holds a net cash position, and we highlight potential upside to 2026E EBITDA.
The key downside risks for Alleima include evolving customer demands, as new industries and technological processes emerge, shifting capex across industries, adverse effects from higher raw material and energy costs as demand outgrows supply, and competition in the broader market.
Alleima is a leading player in the metallurgical industry, operating in a niche accounting for less than 0.2% of global steel volume output. Specialised in the development and production of high-value-added products within stainless steel and special alloys, as well as industrial heating solutions, Alleima holds a No. 1 global market position in areas such as industrial heating, umbilical tubing, steam generator tubing, aerospace titanium tubing and stainless compressor valve steel, and it ranks No. 2 in medical wire.
We lower 2026E-28E adjusted EBIT by 9-10% following an exceptionally weak Q3 print, burdened by Tube, impacted by underabsorption from lower OCTG-related volumes and nuclear production challenges. Positively, Kanthal again stood out, delivering 35% y/y adjusted EBIT growth and a 17% consensus beat, supported by 10% organic growth and ~50% incremental organic margins. While we expect Middle East-related disruptions to weigh on the near term, we view the weakness as primarily geopolitical rather than structural. Given a healthy umbilicals pipeline, the Nuclear capacity ramp-up and sustained Kanthal momentum, we continue to see scope for a healthy earnings recovery into 2027. While the share has performed strongly YTD, we believe that the market remains overly focused on current OCTG weakness, and that it underappreciates the improving earnings quality and the contribution from growing Nuclear volumes and Kanthal. We reiterate Buy and lower our SOTP-based target price to SEK 117 (127).
Alm. Brand
Buy
DKK 20.00
29 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Ulrik Zürcher, CFA
We find Alm. Brand attractive, as we forecast earnings growth that exceeds that of its peers, led by continued profitability improvements as presented in the 2028 strategy. On top of the earnings growth, we also see scope for significant capital distribution, which also exceeds the levels seen for peers on average. We also note that Alm. Brand delivered a well-executed repricing cycle in the last round of inflationary pressure, and a repeat of this would trigger further upside to our medium- to long-term estimates.
Key downside risks: Alm. Brand is targeting significant profitability improvement from new actions that are partly dependent on new or improved IT solutions, where hiccups could trigger a negative share price reaction. While inflation seems to be under control, a sudden spike in inflation could cause subdued profitability in the short term. With AI leading to potential new opportunities, the risks of new market entrants or changes in customer demand have also increased.
Alm. Brand is a Danish non-life insurance group with a market share of ~15%. The Alm. Brand group's key business areas are commercial and private property, followed by motor (comprehensive and third-party liability). Alm. Brand's main owner, the Alm. Brand Foundation, currently owns ~47% of the share capital in Alm. Brand; the foundation has ambitions to lift this above 50%. Alm. Brand's underlying profitability has improved faster than peers recently. Alm. Brand aims to distribute more than 80% of its earnings as dividends.
We raise 2026E adjusted EPS 1% due to the beat in Q3, which is partially offset by lower estimates for Q4. Our adjusted EPS is down 3% for 2027E and 2% for 2028E. The downgrades are driven by a somewhat higher claims ratio (0.5 and 0.4pp in 2027E-28E), which reflects a calibration of the miss versus our estimate for Q3 2026. We maintain our Buy recommendation but lower our DCF-derived target price to DKK 20.0 (20.2) due to marginally lower estimates. Overall, we continue to see a supportive combination of earnings delivery and valuation.
Alma Media
Buy
EUR 15.50
30 Oct 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sanna Perälä
We believe that the risk/reward in Alma Media is positive. In accordance with its long-term financial targets, the company should be in a position to deliver stable growth and improving margins. Improving cash flows and cash conversion should allow it to continue growing its dividends for the foreseeable future. We believe investor sentiment will become increasingly positive for the developing equity story.
Key downside risks: The impact of geopolitical uncertainty; greater competition; price pressure; margin pressure; M&A risks; the advertising media market development; shifting consumer habits and behaviour; the outlook for various media types; and the economic outlook for key operating countries.
Alma Media Oyj is a European media company based in Finland that specialises in online classifieds, along with digital services and printed media. The reporting segments are Career, Marketplaces and News Media. Career consists of digital recruitment businesses in Finland, the Baltics and Eastern Central Europe. Marketplaces features leading online classifieds and digital services for consumers and businesses. News Media contains Alma Media's journalistic news media; for example, Iltalehti and Kauppalehti.
Alma Media delivered another strong quarter, with organic growth accelerating and profitability reaching new highs despite the soft market. In our view, the performance increasingly validates the company’s investments in digital, AI, data and value-added services, while complementing its strong portfolio with strategic bolt-on acquisitions. We make only small estimate changes, but we expect the quality and resilience of earnings to continue to improve. With Marketplaces already at a ~40% EBIT margin, we believe the valuation (at a ~15% discount to peers) is increasingly difficult to justify, particularly given strong cash generation, low leverage and further M&A optionality. We reiterate Buy with a higher SOTP-based target price of EUR 15.5 (15.3).