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COMPANY
RECOMMENDATION
TARGET PRICE
PUBLICATION DATE
LAST 12 MONTH REC
DISCLAIMER
A.P. Møller - Mærsk
Hold
USD 18,700.00
15 Sep 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Lars Heindorff
We define Hold as a rating assigned to a share that is trading in line with our target price and/or where we see no compelling investment case.
Ocean's rate volatility remains the key risk. We calculate that a ±1pp change in the yearly growth rate could affect group EBITDA by roughly USD ±350m. Demand during 2026 has proved surprisingly resilient so far. Tariffs have caused changes to cargo flows, supporting higher growth, which – if this continues in 2026 – could lift demand beyond expectations. Maersk has improved Terminal operations and earnings. If port congestion continues or even increases in 2026-27, there could be some upside to our Terminal estimates. Generally lower economic growth will likely have a negative impact on demand, which has been particularly supported by Chinese exports during 2025-26. A slowdown in Asian exports will have material negative implications for earnings, in our view.
A.P. Møller-Mærsk (APM) is a Danish transportation and logistics conglomerate. Its main asset is Mærsk Line, the world's second-largest container shipping company. After a major strategic change, APM has divested its oil-related units to focus on integrating its transportation activities: Mærsk Line (Ocean), APM Terminals (the world's third-largest container port operator) and Logistics & Services, which includes a full-range transport offering from freight forwarding to third-party logistics and warehousing.
We maintain our Hold rating with a target price of DKK 18,700, and we see a high likelihood of another guidance upgrade. We estimate 2026 EBITDA of USD 14.5bn, well above company guidance for USD 10.5-12.5bn and consensus at USD 12.7bn, and we still believe that our new forecast is fairly conservative. Our unchanged Hold rating reflects a balance between short-term earnings momentum and our relative- and P/BV- based fair value of DKK 18,716 (17,600) being well below the current share price, mostly based on a long-term ROIC average of ~6%, for which we apply only 0.5x P/BV, pointing to DKK ~14,200, while our relative valuation indicates DKK ~29,200.
AAK
Buy
SEK 250.00
20 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Nicklas Skogman
We see a favourable risk/reward outlook over the next year. While CCF volumes may stay soft due to high consumer prices for chocolate in the near term, we expect a recovery beyond Q1. We are also optimistic about FI volumes ahead. More flexible pricing in contract bids could boost FI volumes without significantly affecting EBIT/kg, in our view. Additionally, India (~10% of volumes) and Sweden have cut food VAT, which may support demand. As for Nigeria's shea nut export ban, we do not expect a material impact on AAK's 2026 profits, given the dramatic fall in domestic shea nut prices.
We believe that the main downside risks are: 1) lost volume or margin headwinds from increased price pressure in AAK's key segments; 2) working capital requirements continuing to increase; and 3) geopolitical unrest disrupting sourcing.
AAK refines vegetables oils for specialised products that meet its customers' requirements, such as substitutes for dairy fat and cocoa butter, trans-fat-free fillings in chocolate and confectionery products, and products for the cosmetics industry. AAK has three business areas: Food Ingredients (FI), Chocolate & Confectionery Fats (CCF) and Technical Products and Feed (TPF). Its main competitors are Cargill, Fuji Oil and Loders Croklaan (part of Bunge Group).
We reiterate our Buy recommendation, but lower our multiples-based target price to SEK 250 (295) following significant estimate revisions. For 2026-28, we cut our EBIT forecasts by 8-9%, reflecting 2-4% lower volumes and 5-6% lower EBIT/kg. The revisions are almost entirely driven by Food Ingredients (FI), where we expect continued margin pressure and subdued volumes for the rest of the year. While we expect market conditions to remain challenging in the near term and we see few immediate catalysts beyond (for example, an additional cost-saving programme), we view the current valuation as attractive from a longer-term perspective. Our revised target price implies a NTM EV/EBIT multiple of 13.5x, balancing near-term headwinds against our expectation for a medium-term recovery and a strong track record of double-digit earnings growth.
ABB
Buy
USD 1,175.00
17 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Magnus Kruber, CFA
Over the past few years, ABB has transformed from a complex, matrix-run organisation into an agile, focused, profitable and high-quality company, in our view, exposed to multiple highly attractive secular growth trends. While we acknowledge that much of the company's transformation journey is now behind us, and that the strong share price performance has driven the valuation to elevated levels, we find ABB's underlying growth drivers compelling. Adding to this a cyclical recovery and further self-help opportunities, we forecast significant operational EBITA growth until at least 2027.
One key concern for investors has been the rapid build-out of capacity to satisfy demand from the data centre boom. If demand from data centres were to dry up, this could result in significant price pressure, especially if demand in other end markets is unable to fill the gap. In addition, while the company has so far avoided the impact from delayed decision-making related to tariffs, we cannot rule out that such an effect could materialise over the coming quarter as new tariffs are added, creating additional uncertainty for customers.
ABB is a global industrial conglomerate. It operates through four business areas: Electrification, which offers a wide range of products and solutions across the low- and medium-voltage electrical value chain; Motion, which sells motors, generators and drives; Process Automation, which offers products and solutions to automate process industries; and Robotics & Discrete Automation, which offers industrial robots, as well as products and solutions to automate industrial processes. ABB has operations in more than 100 countries.
Following solid Q2 2026 results, we raise 2026E-28E operational EBITA by 8% and hike our blended target price to SEK 1,175 (1,100), based on the average of our EV/EBIT valuation (SEK 1,050) and our DCF model (SEK 1,300). We reiterate Buy.
Absolent
Buy
SEK 278.00
21 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Anders Åkerblom
We believe Absolent is set to return to its former earnings growth trend. First, with the number of production units down to six versus ten, we foresee lower extraordinary costs in the short term and lower SG&A structurally. Second, the underlying market is showing signs of recovery, and order intake is starting to grow in Industrial, and thus we expect volumes to rebound. Driven by operational measures and new product launches, we continue to believe that the company will show superior earnings growth in the coming years, corresponding to a 2024-27E adjusted EBITA CAGR of ~8% (~38% in 2025-27E) – with M&A offering upside potential.
We see downside risks from a weak macroeconomic climate, in particular within the important automotive end market, as well as changes in customer behaviour.
Absolent is a ventilation and filter company focused on providing air pollution solutions such as filters, dust and oil collectors, and fume extractors, among others. During processing of food and in industrial application, particles and gases that are harmful both to humans and the environment are released into the air. Pollution is linked to seven million deaths every year, and factories often have ten times the level of air pollution output compared with cities. This is generated during processes such as milling, die casting, welding, laser cutting, deep frying and roasting, which release oil mist, oil smoke, VOC and dust into the air. A system for air cleaning is required to ensure that employees are not harmed while working in a polluted environment.
We lower 2026E-28E adj. EBIT by 2-6%, after a largely in-line report in which Absolent beat our adj. EBIT forecast by 2%. While we argue that Absolent's longer-term earnings power was clearly demonstrated in the 570bp y/y adj. EBIT margin growth in the key Industrial segment, we are reluctant to extrapolate this fully owing to our view that a favourable regional mix provided meaningful benefits. We also attempt to balance some near-term headwinds from launch-related costs and profitability challenges in Commercial Kitchen amid weak end-market demand. We remain positive on the group's longer-term prospects, with new product families continuing to gain traction and operational initiatives progressing, supporting 2027E organic growth of ~8%. As launch-related costs fade and execution improves, we continue to see scope for a gradual return towards historical profitability levels. At ~11x 2027E adjusted EV/EBIT, we view the valuation as undemanding, supporting favourable risk/reward. We reiterate Buy and lower our multiples-based target price to SEK 278 (287).
AcadeMedia
Buy
SEK 130.00
11 Sep 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Philip Ekengren
We believe the market overestimates Swedish political risk and underappreciates AcadeMedia's stable, predominantly publicly-funded earnings base, growing international diversification and substantial M&A capacity. AcadeMedia's proven acquisition strategy is structurally supported and its intentional ambition should simultaneously lower its political exposure while enabling further growth. The company's predictable cash generation and low leverage provide significant flexibility for continued value-accretive capital deployment.
We see three downside risks: 1) AcadeMedia's growth strategy depends on successful acquisition execution, and weaker-than-expected integration or performance in international markets could weigh on earnings; 2) a continued decline in birth rates could weigh on student volumes over time, particularly within preschool operations; and 3) difficulties in attracting and retaining qualified teachers and staff could negatively affect the group.
AcadeMedia is a leading European education provider, with operations spanning preschool, compulsory education, upper secondary education and adult education. It is active in schools throughout the Swedish educational system and in preschools a number of European countries, including Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, the UK and Germany, with more than 779 educational units in total. Based on the ~124,000 students and participants currently attending its different learning centres, AcadeMedia is the largest independent education provider in Northern Europe.
We initiate coverage of AcadeMedia with a Buy recommendation and a target price of SEK 130. We forecast an adjusted EBITA CAGR of 7% over 2025/26-2028/29.
AddLife
Buy
SEK 210.00
11 Sep 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Gustav Berneblad
In the long term, we see several attractive traits, including the company's leading position in a highly fragmented and non-cyclical market. A recovery in elective surgeries after the COVID-19 pandemic should bolster demand for the years to come, driving organic growth above historical levels, in our view. With AddLife having completed several larger platform acquisitions, one of which is struggling with profitability, its leverage has increased significantly; hence, we foresee that the current leverage could hamper short-term M&A activity, as AddLife is likely to prioritise deleveraging its balance sheet in the coming years. Despite the higher leverage, we expect AddLife to drive solid earnings growth through organic initiatives, as well as margin-enhancing activities.
We argue that the main risks are related to regulation, dependence on suppliers and high leverage.
AddLife is one of the foremost independent distributors in the European life sciences sector, focused on developing and acquiring market-leading niche companies with offerings aimed primarily at the healthcare industry, from research to medical care. Following its spin-off from Addtech in 2016, AddLife has grown from 24 subsidiaries and a Nordic focus to 85 subsidiaries and a stronger European presence. In the process, the company has gained a competitive edge, offering a wide array of products from myriad suppliers, while also being able to provide tailor-made solutions to meet customer needs.
Following several years of decentralisation, operational improvements and balance sheet repair, we believe the pieces are now starting to come together for AddLife. With group EBITA margins now well above historical levels, our recent Ireland visit reinforced the progress made through increased decentralisation and operational improvements, evidenced by a ~200bp margin expansion in HC21. Combined with much stronger and more decentralised M&A organisation, we take a somewhat more positive view on both the M&A outlook and the margin trajectory, resulting in a 0-3% increase to our 2026-28 EBITA estimates – supported by the recently disclosed acquisition. That said, we still see ~60% upside to our 2030 adjusted EBITA scenario, and we believe the group has the foundations in place to deliver a 2025-30E adjusted EBITA CAGR of 18%, comfortably above its long-term target. We reiterate Buy, but we raise our target price to SEK 210 (205).
Addnode
Buy
SEK 63.00
16 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Thomas Nilsson
Addnode has a solid track record of compounding growth through bolt-on acquisitions. We assume 6% in sales growth annually, driven by future unannounced M&A, which we argue is conservative in relation to Addnode's growth history. We argue that the company can raise the share of proprietary software sales in Team D3 and Microdesk over time, thus improving the profitability of the overall group. We also think that the share of recurring revenue will continue to outpace the growth of other revenue categories, which should contribute to increasing operating leverage and higher margins in the long term.
We believe the largest risks for Addnode pertain to: 1) Autodesk's changing transaction model and poor visibility regarding organic sales development in Design Management for the next 18 months; 2) the negative impact on cash flow and higher NWC implied by the company's changing transaction model; and 3) AI's deflationary effect on software development costs, which could disrupt current dominant SaaS players, including Addnode's partners, Autodesk and Dassault Systèmes.
Addnode is a leading value-added reseller (VAR) of business-critical software and a service provider for companies spanning the design, construction and manufacturing industries. It is a leading partner and provider of Autodesk software in both Europe and the US, as well as Dassault Systèmes software in Europe. Addnode also has proprietary software, primarily targeting the Swedish public sector. Acquisitions are a central part of the company's growth strategy, and Addnode has historically grown more via acquisitions than organically.
Following the report, we lower 2026E-27E adjusted EBITA by 6-7%. While reported growth remains distorted by Autodesk's agreement structure and compensation model, the underlying earnings trajectory appears intact. The SEK 100m efficiency programme should support higher margins from 2027 onwards. We maintain our Buy recommendation, but lower our multiples-based target price to SEK 63 (93), implying 12x 2026E EV/adjusted EBITA.
Addtech
Buy
SEK 378.00
15 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Gustav Berneblad
Despite LTM multiple expansion, we argue that Addtech's attractive and green end-market exposures, including wind power, power grids and batteries, should yield an appealing long-term organic growth rate of 5-6%. Together with the sector's highest M&A activity, this should drive a 14% EBITA CAGR for the next three years, which we argue justifies the multiples. Its strong balance sheet with net debt/EBITDA at 1.5x also allows the company to consider larger targets.
The main downside risks to our case, in our view, include the unsuccessful integration of acquisitions, shifts in end-market demand, or the company being unsuccessful in terms of finding and acquiring companies.
Addtech consists of more than 100 operating companies, all of which strive to be market leaders in their niches. Most subsidiaries sell high-tech components to Nordic industrial companies. The companies are held together by a culture in which skills and technical competence are central and where the flexibility of a small company is combined with the network and financial resources of a group.
We raise adjusted EBITA by 0-1% for 2026E/27E-28E/29E, following an overall solid Q1 2026/27 report. Adjusted EBITA expanded by 12% y/y in Q1, marking another quarter with a book-to-bill ratio of >1 and sequentially better commentary with regard to end-market demand. We are therefore increasingly more upbeat on a potentially stronger sales recovery in Q3 and Q4 – particularly driven by Energy, for which we pencil in ~5% y/y group organic sales growth. With the share trading at 2027E EV/EBITA of 21x, we find the quality – including a P/WC ratio of ~80%, ROCE of >22% and our expectation for ~15% EBITA growth for the year (with further upside from future M&A) – too appealing to ignore. We reiterate Buy and increase our multiples-based target price to SEK 378 (375).
Admicom
Hold
09 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Patrick Campbell
We define Hold as a rating assigned to a share that is trading in line with our fair value and/or where we see no compelling investment case.
Key downside risks: Economic uncertainty in the construction end market, tightening competition, M&A integration risks, inability to recruit personnel to drive growth and risks related to cyberthreats. Key upside risks: A faster-than-expected recovery in the construction end market, a public takeover, faster digitalisation in the construction industry and addressable market expansion.
Admicom provides cloud-based software solutions and accounting services for the construction and building services engineering industry, mainly in Finland. More than 90% of the company's revenues are recurring monthly invoicing. The company has set a long-term ARR target of EUR 100m for 2030 and aims to expand to several international markets during this decade.
Admicom's Q2 results came in below our expectations on all key line items. Sales of EUR 9.7m were 2% below consensus, while adjusted EBITDA of EUR 3.0m was in line with consensus with a margin of 31.0%. However, reported profitability figures missed our and consensus estimates. ARR of EUR 37.1m grew by 3.9% y/y but declined by 0.5% q/q, following a high level of bankruptcy-induced churn. The company expects the construction market to remain challenging in Finland and points to continued market uncertainty. Following the results and given a lack of positive catalysts, we cut our 2026E-28E sales by 1-4% and our adjusted EBITDA estimates by 7-11%. We downgrade our recommendation to Hold, with a DCF-based fair value of EUR 30.
AFRY
No Rating
05 Feb 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Adrian Elmlund
We suspend coverage of AFRY owing to changes in analyst coverage. Our most recent recommendation on AFRY was Hold.
Coverage suspended.
AFRY is a technical consultancy firm based in Stockholm, Sweden. Its operations are structured into five main business units: Infrastructure, Industrial & Digital Solutions, Process Industries, Energy, and Management Consulting. Sweden is its largest regional exposure and accounts for approximately half of AFRY's sales, while the Nordics and Switzerland are considered its core markets.
See Investment case section above. There are no estimate changes in this report.
Akastor
Buy
NOK 24.00
24 Aug 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sondre Snersrud
The investment case hinges on Akastor's long-running track record of active ownership, restructuring abilities and a disciplined approach to realising value from its concentrated portfolio above book value. With the ultimate goal of returning proceeds to shareholders, and given an increasingly mature portfolio that is nearing full realisation, with a net cash position and low capital expenditures on the horizon, we believe Akastor is transitioning towards a more shareholder-friendly era. Adding multiple near-term catalysts via a realisation of NES Fircroft, the gradual monetisation of the listed HMH stake and improvements on the horizon for AKOFS Offshore, we believe Akastor is well equipped to realise value and redistribute strong dividends to shareholders.
Akastor's portfolio companies operate almost exclusively in the oilfield services industry, making revenues and valuations highly sensitive to oil price movements and global E&P spending cycles. This includes geopolitical tensions and the broader market environment, which could impair Akastor's ability to conclude transactions.
Akastor ASA is an oil service-focused investment company headquartered in Oslo, operating with a flexible mandate for active ownership and long-term value creation. The company was formed through the demerger of the former Aker Solutions group in 2014, and its largest shareholder is Aker ASA, with a 36.7% stake. Akastor's portfolio is concentrated around two industrial holdings in HMH (~36.2% ownership), a full-service drilling equipment and aftermarket services provider, recently listed on Nasdaq in April 2026, and AKOFS Offshore. The other financial investments include NES Fircroft, DDW Offshore, Aqualis, Føn Energy Services and IKM Løfteteknikk. Akastor's strategy is to develop each portfolio company as an independent business through active board-level ownership, with the ultimate objective of returning capital to shareholders upon realisation of assets.
Akastor continued its ongoing phase of maturing upstream liquidation opportunities and redistributing cash to patient shareholders, with an announced Q2 dividend of NOK 0.5 per share following the sale of DDW Offshore's Skandi Emerald. In addition to the listing of HMH, Q2 marked an additional upstream cash catalysts in a ongoing financial restructurings of NES Fircroft (15% of GAV), which together with a potential final DDW vessel sale could release NOK ~12.5 per share in a fair scenario. Heading into 2027, with an estimated uptick in HMH's earnings profile, we believe there should be ample opportunities for Akastor to gradually divest its 36.2% stake at higher values than its currently modest ~30% peer-discounted valuation level implies, all leaving upside to the current NAV and dividend prospects. On our SOTP estimates, illustrating what we deem fair exit valuation points, we calculate a fair NAV of NOK ~24 per share, on which we base our increased target price of NOK 24 (22). We reiterate Buy.
Aker ASA
Buy
NOK 1,470.00
17 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sondre Snersrud
Aker ASA has demonstrated an impressive ability to shift its legacy portfolio towards energy transition, digitalisation and AI, with a track record of capitalising on megatrends. We see Aker BP as the high-growth backbone of the portfolio, likely to support Aker ASA with funding sources through strong cash flow, and we argue that Aker ASA offers investors a unique mix of risk-adjusted returns through its incubation of new ventures "in-house" while maintaining an opportunistic mindset on valuation crystallisation. With record-high visibility on the portfolio value following several IPOs and the price discovery on Nscale, we argue Aker ASA should trade in line with other Nordic investment companies such as Industrivärden and Investor, which are valued close to NAV and fundamental value.
Aker ASA is heavily exposed to fluctuations in commodity markets and interest rates can adversely affect its equity value, while technological and execution risks on its new ventures could lead to lower and slower growth than expected.
Aker ASA is an investment company that exercises active ownership through an industrial portfolio of listed holdings and financial investments in unlisted companies, focused on the areas of energy, digitalisation, sustainable proteins, environment, marine biotech and finance.
The Q2 report marked no change of course, despite the privatisation plan for AkerBiomarine (~78%) and the Cognite-driven unlisted NAV uptick of NOK ~8bn q/q. Nscale, together with a massive NOK ~15.3bn expected cash pile following the Cognite deal, raise two clear triggers moving into H2 2026; 1) IPO news, and 2) the allocation of NOK 15.3bn held in cash, making up ~16% of the current market value. Adding the Monarch LOI to Nscale's >280,000 contracted GPU portfolio, the backlog prospects go from USD ~35bn to USD ~87bn, which, compared to CoreWeave and Nebius, raise the currently sector-weighted market value potential towards USD ~37bn, lifting the NOK 432 per share Series C-based valuation to NOK 1,034 per Aker share. We stick to Buy and raise our NAV-based target price to NOK 1,470 (1,400).
Aker BP
Buy
USD 380.00
16 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sondre Snersrud
Hydrocarbons are becoming harder to find and the size of each discovery is declining. This gives operators with in-depth local knowledge a competitive edge. Given Aker BP's multiple hub positions and operating capabilities, which allow it to reduce development costs through hub clustering, we believe inorganic value can be captured. We believe Aker BP is well positioned to create shareholder value through continued portfolio optimisation and growth projects, centred around low-cost barrels through tie-backs on existing infrastructure, M&A and greenfield discoveries on the NCS. Investment cases with high growth prospects and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy are a rare breed; in our view, Aker BP is one such case.
Downside risks: Operating in a commodity market, Aker BP is heavily exposed to oil and gas prices, which are a key swing factor for earnings; it is also implicitly exposed to the global macro environment, with increasing trade tensions adding risk to future demand. Changes to laws, regulations and political agendas can also affect supply.
Aker BP is a pureplay E&P company with exploration, development and production activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). In terms of production, Aker BP is one of the largest independent oil companies in Europe. It has a balanced portfolio and operates the Valhall, Ula, Ivar Aasen, Alvheim and Skarv field hubs, in addition to holding significant stakes in Johan Sverdrup (31.7%) and the Yggdrasil development project. The company is headquartered at Fornebu, outside Oslo, and has offices in Stavanger, Trondheim, Harstad and Sandnessjøen. Aker BP ASA is owned by Aker ASA (21%), BP (15.9%), the Lundin family (14.4%) and other shareholders.
Aker BP's Q2 print left a minor dent in an otherwise highly compelling production-driven FCF journey towards 2028. All projects remain on track, while the narrowed 2026 production guidance for 380-400kboepd (370-400) de-risks the consensus estimate of 388kboepd. EBITDA of USD ~3.35bn was 3% ahead of company-collected consensus, followed by robust FCF generation of USD ~1.3bn, 16% above consensus. This continues to hold NIBD in check through its most intense investment phase. With key growth approaching its final offshore installation phases and on schedule for first oil in mid-2027, Aker BP has raised its gross forward capex guidance by USD 0.7-1.5bn to reduce execution risk and cover a larger cost scope. However, this should be significantly alleviated by favourable tax deductions. With tailwinds from rising oil prices, and a structurally higher gas curve, we continue to see a 2026-28 average FCF yield of ~15%, ~4pp above peers, and a firm >8% dividend yield, as highly attractive. We reiterate Buy and raise our multiples-based target price to NOK 380 (375).
Aker Solutions
Hold
15 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sondre Snersrud
We define Hold as a rating assigned to a share that is trading in line with our fair value and/or where we see no compelling investment case.
Higher E&P spending on new development and higher-for-longer oil prices represent upside risks to earnings, which could be further boosted by successful delivery of ongoing projects, realising inherent incentive fees in the contracts. On the flip side, project and supply chain disruptions could increase the risk to earnings and delivery. In the longer term, softer E&P spending could be a risk factor for backlog sustainability.
Aker Solutions delivers integrated solutions, products and services to the global energy industry. At its core, it enables low-carbon oil and gas production and develops renewable solutions to meet demand in the future energy industries. It employs 12,000 people, and has operations across 15 countries, making it a global player, delivering on projects across large platforms, subsea systems for oil and gas production, to offshore wind installations and facilities for carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Its three segments are: 1) Renewables and Field Development (R&FD); 2) Life Cycle; and 3) its 20% stake in the subsea-focused JV SLB OneSubsea.
Aker Solutions reported Q2 revenues of NOK13.1bn, 3% below Bloomberg consensus, albeit countered by solid underlying EBITDA margins of ~7.9%, resulting in EBITDA coming in ~5% above expectations. On the back of high activity and stronger visibility for 2026, the company has hiked its 2026 revenue estimates yet another round, to NOK 50-55bn (~50bn). It has also narrowed margin expectations to ~7.5%, leaving ~8% and ~6% upside potential to top-line and EBITDA expectations, respectively. Consequently, we nudge up our EBITDA 2026 estimates, while keeping our longer-term forecast rather flat. The increasingly Life Cycle-oriented backlog and business mix builds a supportive backbone for the case, with ~54% of our 2027 estimates covered, in line with L3Y Q2 levels, and illustrating the need for a shift in R&FD momentum to materially tilt the longer-term outlook. Thus, we stick to our Hold rating with a revised SOTP-based fair value of NOK43 (46), reflecting a ~6x 2026-28E average EV/EBITDA, in line with its historical pricing.
AL Sydbank
Buy
DKK 740.00
27 Aug 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Mathias Nielsen
AL Sydbank is in the process of merging Sydbank with AL Bank, including Vestjysk Bank. We see upside to the announced 2028 synergy targets and the 2028 financial targets. On top of this, we see room for attractive capital distribution to shareholders as AL Sydbank works with the internal capital model. In combination with an attractive fundamental and relative valuation, we see scope for attractive returns to shareholders.
Key downside risks: Given its high sensitivity to changes in short-term interest rates, more rate cuts than we pencil in would likely drag the share price down. If wage inflation were to stay elevated in Denmark for a prolonged time while interest rates came down, this could also add pressure on earnings, and hence the share price. An economic downturn with large unexpected loan losses could also trigger a drop in the share price. The merger with AL Bank entails risk of unforeseen hiccups that could cause economic losses for AL Sydbank.
AL Sydbank provides banking products and services to individuals and businesses, primarily in Denmark but also in Germany. The bank's offering includes products and services such as loans, savings accounts, cards, pension funds, life insurance, payment services, financing and investment services. Its headquarters are in southern Denmark, but it operates across the whole country.
Given limited surprises in the Q2 results, we argue that the main takeaway is the solid merger execution. With lending growth of 0.9% q/q and deposit growth of 3.0% q/q, business momentum seems to have held up well despite the ongoing integration of the three-way merger. On top of the bottom-up merger case, we also note top-down tailwinds from central bank rate hikes. Q2 NII was up 2.6% q/q, while we expect Q3 NII to increase by 5.7% q/q as lending repricing gains momentum. Our forecasts continue to rest on our assumption of one more rate hike of 25bp from the ECB and the Danish central bank in September. The current forward rate implies elevated probability of another rate hike in December. If that proves to be the case, then AL Sydbank would see the greatest tailwind in the sector with just shy of 5% additional upside to 2027E-28E net profit for each 25bp rate hike, 2-3pp more than peers. We leave 2026E-28E net profit broadly unchanged, and we stick to our Buy rating and raise our Gordon growth-based target price to DKK 740 (735).
Alfa Laval
Buy
SEK 610.00
21 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Magnus Kruber, CFA
Following a period of muted vessel contracting in H1 2025, we have recently seen significantly more buoyant contracting activity amid healthy freight rates, which we expect to drive improving Ocean order intake throughout 2026, leaving us ahead of Visible Alpha consensus. Importantly, we are now also above consensus for Energy and Food & Pharma as order momentum strengthens across data centres, HVAC and edible oils.
We find key downside risks from lower order momentum driven by potential customer delays in placing large orders due to tariff and geopolitical uncertainties. In addition we could see slower-than-expected order momentum in Marine following the opening of the Red Sea, which could trigger lower vessel utilisation, lower freight rates and ultimately lower vessel contracting at shipyards. Lower-than-expected margin progression is possible, should we see a deteriorating mix effect from project invoicing.
Alfa Laval provides product solutions for heat transfer, separation and fluid handling. It targets general industrial end markets, with an overweight towards the marine, food, pharma and oil & gas industries. Alfa Laval's market shares range between 10% and 30% globally and its key selling points include highly engineered products with strong brand recognition. About one-quarter of group sales come from aftermarket operations, where Alfa Laval services its large, global installed base.
We leave our 2026-27 adjusted EBITA estimates largely unchanged, with higher volumes offset by higher-than-expected group costs, but we raise our multiples-based target price to SEK 610 (585) (18x EV/EBIT for 2027E), due to broader and higher-than-expected organic order momentum in 2026E-27E. We reiterate Buy.
ALK-Abello
Hold
09 Sep 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Peter Hugreffe Ankersen
We define Hold as a rating assigned to a share that is trading in line with our fair value and/or where we see no compelling investment case.
Key downside risks: Tablets (Acarizax/Odactra/Itulazax in particular) and anaphylactics (Jext and neffy) delivering disappointing sales; intensified competition in key markets; production problems; and pipeline failures, especially the ALK peanut SLIT ph II project. Key upside risks: continued sales growth acceleration, driven by solid momentum in particular for the SLIT tablet business and the anaphylactics business; continued margin expansion, which could lead to further solid cash flow generation.
ALK-Abello A/S is a Denmark-based company specialising in allergy immunotherapy (AIT). Its portfolio includes allergy vaccines, emergency treatments and allergy diagnostics products, such as tablet vaccines, sublingual vaccines, subcutaneous vaccines and allergen extracts for allergy testing, such as skin-prick tests. The company operates globally through subsidiaries, production units and distributors in Canada, Germany, France, the US and China, among others.
We make no estimate changes in this report. We reiterate our Hold recommendation and calculate an unchanged DCF-based fair value of DKK 242.
Alleima
Buy
SEK 114.00
20 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Anders Åkerblom
Our investment case rests on three pillars. 1) We sense a misperception of Alleima in the market, so, in our view, the share is unjustifiably underpriced. 2) We see appealing organic growth avenues – the company is the No. 1 global player in industrial heating, umbilical tubing and steam generator tubing and the No. 2 in medical wire. It caters to structural growth markets set to yield high-single-digit market CAGRs in the coming years. 3) We find its financials appealing, with Alleima having delivered adjusted EBIT of SEK ~2bn in 2024, ~70% above the 2015-19 average of SEK ~1.1bn per year, while showing a more resilient and diversified earnings profile. Alleima holds a net cash position, and we highlight potential upside to 2026E EBITDA.
The key downside risks for Alleima include evolving customer demands, as new industries and technological processes emerge, shifting capex across industries, adverse effects from higher raw material and energy costs as demand outgrows supply, and competition in the broader market.
Alleima is a leading player in the metallurgical industry, operating in a niche accounting for less than 0.2% of global steel volume output. Specialised in the development and production of high-value-added products within stainless steel and special alloys, as well as industrial heating solutions, Alleima holds a No. 1 global market position in areas such as industrial heating, umbilical tubing, steam generator tubing, aerospace titanium tubing and stainless compressor valve steel, and it ranks No. 2 in medical wire.
We raise 2026E-28E sales by 0-1%, supported by solid organic growth prospects and FX, yet counteracted by recent metal price deflation. We raise adj. EBIT by 2-5%, driven by a supportive mix owing to an exceptionally solid performance (~20% organic sales growth) in the high-margin Kanthal division. For Q3E-Q4E, we see slight margin dilution owing to a greater share of contribution volumes, coupled with the SGT ramp-up. However, supported by its backlog, exceptionally easy comparisons (production disruptions in H2 2025) and savings, we see solid prospects for Alleima to deliver +30% y/y adj. EBIT growth in H2 (+14% y/y in Q2). Moreover, with margin-accretive expansions in Kathal, nuclear ramp-up in Tube, and prospects for a short-cycle recovery, this supports ~6% organic growth in 2027E alongside 20% y/y adj. EBIT growth, placing us 9% above (pre-Q2) VA consensus. At ~12x 2027E adj. EV/EBIT it no longer seems cheap, but with M&A optionality and healthy cash generation we reiterate Buy and raise our SOTP-based target price to SEK 114 (105).
Alm. Brand
Buy
DKK 20.00
17 Jul 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Mathias Nielsen
We find Alm. Brand attractive, as we forecast earnings growth that exceeds peers' led by continued profitability improvements as presented in the 2028 strategy. On top of the earnings growth, we also see scope for significant capital distribution, which also exceeds the levels seen for peers on average. We also note that Alm. Brand delivered a well-executed repricing cycle in the last round of inflationary pressure, and a repeat of this would trigger further upside to our medium-/long-term estimates.
Key downside risks: Alm. Brand is targeting significant profitability improvement from new actions that are partly dependent on new or improved IT solutions, where hiccups could trigger a negative share price reaction. While inflation seems to be under control, a sudden spike in inflation could cause subdued profitability in the short term. With AI leading to potential new opportunities, the risks of new market entrants or changes in customer demand have also increased.
Alm. Brand is a Danish non-life insurance group with a market share of ~15%. The Alm. Brand group's key business areas are commercial and private property, followed by motor (comprehensive and third-party liability). Alm. Brand's main owner, the Alm. Brand Foundation, currently owns ~47% of the share capital in Alm. Brand; the foundation has ambitions to lift this above 50%. Alm. Brand's underlying profitability has improved faster than peers recently. Alm. Brand aims to distribute more than 80% of its earnings as dividends.
The Q2 result was another solid print, with the underlying claims ratio beating company-collected consensus by ~80bp (~130bp when we include the change in risk adjustment). While management points to tailwinds from stochasticity (luck), we note that sector statistics on motor claims point to a quite challenging quarter. Hence, not all was perfect in Q2, in our view, and we would not be surprised if the beat is more sticky than management indicates. Both revenues and the expense ratio were in line with consensus. We raise 2026E-28E net profit by 3-4%, and we see upside to both the 2026 guidance and the 2028 targets. Hence, we reiterate Buy with a slightly higher Gordon growth-based target price of DKK 20 (19).
Alma Media
Buy
EUR 15.30
13 Aug 2026
AUTHOR
INVESTMENT CASE
MAIN RISKS
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
RECOMMENDATION AND ESTIMATION CHANGES
Sanna Perälä
We believe that the risk/reward in Alma Media is positive. In accordance with its long-term financial targets, the company should be in a position to deliver stable growth and improving margins. Improving cash flows and cash conversion should allow it to continue growing its dividends for the foreseeable future. We believe investor sentiment will become increasingly positive for the developing equity story.
Key downside risks: The impact of geopolitical uncertainty; greater competition; price pressure; margin pressure; M&A risks; the advertising media market development; shifting consumer habits and behaviour; the outlook for various media types; and the economic outlook for key operating countries.
Alma Media Oyj is a European media company based in Finland that specialises in online classifieds, along with digital services and printed media. The reporting segments are Career, Marketplaces and News Media. Career consists of digital recruitment businesses in Finland, the Baltics and Eastern Central Europe. Marketplaces features leading online classifieds and digital services for consumers and businesses. News Media contains Alma Media's journalistic news media; for example, Iltalehti and Kauppalehti.
Alma Media delivered strong Q2 2026 results, lifting H1 performance well above last year's levels, as positive momentum continued across all segments. Although the company refrained from updating its guidance, citing the unpredictable market backdrop, we believe an upgrade is likely later in the year, as the company's own productisation and monetisation actions should support sales despite the muted environment. At a moderate 13-14x NTM EV/EBIT, we believe sector valuations may have bottomed after AI-related pressure, creating scope for multiple expansion. We reiterate our Buy rating and lift our SOTP-based target price to EUR 15.3 (15.0), corresponding to 2026E EV/EBIT of 14.6x.