NoHo Partners

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 150.13
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
NOHO FH
NOHOP.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 7.81

Latest Reports

22 JUN 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: The company raises EBIT margin guidance for 2022
NoHo increases its guidance for EBIT margin of the restaurant business in 2022. The company now expect EBIT margin to exceed 8% (earlier: around 7%), supported by better-than-anticipated earnings development in the spring and early summer and compensation decisions confirmed by Finnish, Norwegian and Danish governments for H1. Top line guidance remains intact at around EUR 300m. Post-Q1 Infront consensus has been anticipating EUR 301m sales and 7.5% EBIT margin for 2022E and hence we expect around 6-8% positive consensus revisions. We have been in line with consensus on top line for 2022E, while we have been 5% ahead on EBIT. NoHo will release sales figures for June on week 28 and Q2 report on 9 August.

14 JUN 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Strong May and positive outlook for the summer season
NoHo Partners reported strong May with above EUR 33m sales and above EUR 5.5m operational EBITDA. The company earlier guided for EUR 29-32m sales and 4.5-5.5m operational EBITDA in May. Sales were up 52% compared to May 2019. Normal operations operational EBITDA was EUR 4.5m, while Ice Hockey World Championships boosted top line by EUR 5.7m (Nokia Arena in Tampere). May was third consecutive month with around 15% operational EBITDA margin. The company maintained its June guidance intact and expects sales of EUR 27-30m and operational EBITDA of EUR 3.5-4.5m. In addition to robust Q2 expectations, the company expects fairly positive outlook for the rest of the summer season due to strong potential of entertainment venues. June sales guidance mid-point indicates some 3% upside to consensus Q2 top line (post-Q1 Infront consensus at EUR 88m) and ~1% for 2022E (EUR 301m). We have anticipated EUR 12.8m operational EBITDA in Q2 (no consensus), while the company guidance mid-point for June indicates some EUR 14m operational EBITDA for Q2. We have a fair value range of EUR 10.0-12.4 per NoHo share.

16 MAY 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: NoHo Partners – EUR 10m convertible bond converted into new shares
On Friday 13 May, NoHo Partners announced that the management and domestic investors have acquired the majority of the EUR 10m convertible capital loan granted to the company by Finnish Industry investment and converted their purchase into new shares in the company. The company repaid the remaining portion of the loan principal and interest, approximately one sixth, to Tesi using its cash assets. The company’s equity is strengthening and its net debt decreases by more than EUR 10m following the transactions. Subscription price of shares was EUR 8.03 and the company will issue a total of 1.27m new shares. We view conversion positively as it will increase low equity ratio. In Q1, equity ratio was 14.4% and we calculate around 17% equity ratio after subscriptions. In addition, arrangement releases future cash flow to growth investments, although we believe the company will concentrate on lowering its net debt level in 2022. We have a fair value range of EUR 10.0-12.4 per NoHo share

11 MAY 2022
Commissioned Research: Entering the high season at a good pace
NoHo Partners' Q1 2022 results came in above Infront consensus expectations and it issued new guidance for 2022. Given the accelerating market, the company expects around EUR 300m in sales and ~7% EBIT margin for its restaurant business in 2022. We believe the mix will support Q2 earnings, while H2's outlook could be somewhat dented by rising inflation burdening consumers' disposable income. We believe NoHo might even increase its guidance at a later stage if spending remains solid in H2. Near-term focus will be on lowering its debt level, while more aggressive growth investments should drive top-line growth in 2023-24. We derive a fair value range of EUR 10.0-12.4 (10.3-12.7) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

3 MAY 2022
Commissioned Research: Fast recovery seen in the restaurant market
NoHo Partners will report its Q1 results on 10 May. The restaurant market has witnessed a fast recovery after restrictions were lifted across operating markets. We believe NoHo will get a further boost to its Q2 sales from the Ice Hockey World Championships that will be held in Finland. The company expects business spending to gradually normalise, which we believe will have a positive impact on H2 sales despite uncertainties related to inflation, and to consumer confidence and spending. Owing to positive cash flow trends and the possible divestment of a 20.5% stake in Eezy, the debt level should decrease, lowering the risk level in the company. We derive a fair value range of EUR 10.3-12.7 (EUR 9.9-12.2) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

13 APR 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Strong recovery continued in March
NoHo released strong March sales figures with around EUR 26m sales (guided to be over EUR 23m), up 25% from March 2019. March operating cash flow was around EUR 3.5m. The company expects EUR 28m sales and more than EUR 4m positive operating cash flow in April. Q1 sales were around EUR 48m (Refinitiv consensus EUR 42m, although not fully reflecting positive February), down around 4% from Q1 2019. March sales came above NoHo’s expectations, especially due to strategic growth areas in Norway, and Nokia Arena and Friends & Brgrs openings. The company expects the corporate sales to gradually recover in Q2. We note that ice hockey World Championships are held in Finland in Q2, which should boost sales clearly. We view March sales clearly positive for NoHo and note that given stronger-than-anticipated Q1, our Q2 estimates look conservatives (down 5% from Q2 2019). We have a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.2 per share.

11 MAR 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: NoHo Partners – Strong February sales and positive cash flow – March expectations above earlier indications
NoHo Partners’ February sales were over EUR 15m (earlier guided to be EUR 13-15m) while we had anticipated EUR 13m. Operating cash flow turned positive in February, while we had anticipated EUR 1m negative operating cash flow. The company expects sales to be over EUR 23m and operating cash flow to exceed EUR 3m in March (earlier over EUR 21m sales and EUR 2-3m operating cash flow). We have anticipated EUR 22m sales in March and EUR 3.5m positive operating cash flow. Hence, mathematically, there is some 10% upside to our Q1 top line estimate. According to the company, customer demand has recovered even faster than the company has anticipated. Entertainment venues and nightclubs have seen high demand during first weekend of March and the company has strong booking situation in its restaurants. We view February sales figures and March indications positive for NoHo and note that our H1 estimates look conservative based on the recovery pace in the market. The company will report March development during week 15. We have a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.2 per NoHo share.

18 FEB 2022
Commissioned Research: Normal market conditions in sight
NoHo reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 6.7m, clearly above Infront consensus expectations. The company has improved its underlying profitability clearly during the COVID-19 pandemic and we expect it to reach its 2024 EBIT margin target by 2023. Easing restrictions should allow close to breakeven cash flow for Q1, while the company expects the market to normalise during Q2. The market is clearly poised for a rapid recovery, thanks to significant pent-up demand. NoHo is sticking to its 2024 targets, with EUR 400m of sales and a 10% EBIT margin, which we view as achievable. We derive a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.2 (9.4-11.7) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

17 FEB 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Promising EBIT development in Q4
NoHo Partners reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 6.7m, +58% (EUR 2.5m) versus Infront consensus and 13% above Nordea. Q4 net sales were EUR 69.5m and came 3% above consensus and 2% above Nordea. Operating cash flow was EUR +9.8m in Q4, while cash position was EUR 6.4m at the end of Q4 (EUR 10.9m at the end of Q3). Government grants were EUR 3.0m in Q4. January sales of EUR 6.7m were down 13% y/y (43% of 2019 level), while the company expects February sales in the range of EUR 13-15m and operating cash flow between EUR -1-0m. March sales are expected to exceed EUR 21m with operating cash flow of EUR 2-3m. Cash flow impact is well in line with our expectations. NoHo aims to issue a guidance in conjunction with the Q1 report at the latest. The company has prepared for raw material price increases by centralising purchasing operations and increasing prices. Market is expected to return to normal during Q2 and operating cash flow should turn positive after mid-February. We expect flat to slightly positive consensus estimate revisions on the back of Q4 numbers and note that company’s comments of operating cash flow for Q1 can be viewed as a slight relief.

2 FEB 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Restaurant restrictions in Finland to ease in two weeks
According to Finnish prime minister, Finland is aiming to ease restaurant restrictions on 14 February. This would allow restaurants to serve alcohol until 11pm and to remain open until midnight. We have anticipated gradual opening of restaurants during February. However, the government is aiming to abolish all restaurant restrictions at the beginning of March, which comes slightly earlier than we had anticipated. We think NoHo can operate with positive cash flow when restaurants can serve until 11pm and hence the cash flow impact from the latest restrictions might be limited to around EUR -4m. Given the pent up demand, we think the restaurant market is poised for a rapid recovery once restrictions are eased. NoHo will report its Q4 on 17 February. We have a fair value range of EUR 9.4-11.7 per NoHo share.

Equity analysts

Analyst
Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Aku Vikström

CFO: Jarno Vilponen

Chairman: Timo Laine

Numbers
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Nordea
EURm
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022E
2023E
2024E
Total revenues
323.2
272.8
156.8
186.1
300.9
337.0
362.3
Ebitda (adj.)
33.70
75.60
21.29
34.50
67.23
79.12
86.35
Ebitda - margin
10.4%
27.7%
13.6%
18.5%
22.3%
23.5%
23.8%
EBIT (adj.)
12.5
31.1
-30.7
-12.6
20.8
29.9
35.6
EBIT (adj.) margin
3.9%
11.4%
-19.6%
-6.7%
6.9%
8.9%
9.8%
PTP (adj.)
11.8
23.7
-39.9
-24.4
9.1
18.7
24.4
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
10.45
22.23
-34.56
-22.00
7.06
15.70
20.50
Shareholders´ Equity
67.1
129.3
76.1
64.4
73.9
87.2
97.2
Net interest bearing debt
138.0
267.6
317.6
321.6
282.6
266.1
255.2
Net gearing
182.0%
195.3%
392.2%
463.5%
351.9%
277.1%
237.5%
Net debt/EBITDA
4.9
3.6
11.3
7.0
4.0
3.4
3.0
Free cash flow to equity
-58.4
23.9
2.7
36.0
43.1
52.6
55.7
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
18.9
19.0
19.2
19.2
19.2
19.2
19.2
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 11, 2022
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
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Nordea
EUR and %
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022E
2023E
2024E
EPS (adj.)
0.54
2.27
-1.66
-1.16
0.30
0.69
0.92
EPS (adj.) growth
27.4%
318.9%
-173.3%
30.1%
125.4%
135.1%
33.1%
DPS
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.40
0.45
BVPS
3.6
6.8
4.0
3.3
3.8
4.5
5.1
P/E (adj.)
16.0
4.5
n.a.
n.a.
26.5
11.3
8.5
EV/Sales
0.96
1.73
3.05
2.54
1.46
1.26
1.15
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
9.21
6.23
22.43
13.72
6.53
5.37
4.81
EV/EBIT (adj.)
24.87
15.56
n.a.
n.a.
21.15
14.23
11.67
P/BV
2.44
1.51
2.03
2.28
2.03
1.72
1.54
Dividend yield
3.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.1%
5.8%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
5.2%
9.9%
-18.3%
3.8%
7.3%
12.3%
13.7%
RoE
6.2%
45.6%
-26.1%
-15.1%
12.7%
16.5%
19.2%
ROIC
6.0%
7.9%
-6.3%
-2.8%
4.8%
7.0%
8.4%
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 11, 2022
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Refinitiv