NoHo Partners

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 148.21
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
NOHO FH
NOHOP.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 7.16

Latest Reports

9 NOV 2022
Commissioned Research: In good shape going into high season
NoHo Partners' Q3 EBIT was 10% above Refinitiv consensus and the company seemed confident ahead of the high season. Guidance was kept intact, which we view as conservative considering that booking rates and current trading indicate sustained good demand in the restaurant segment. The company renewed its financing agreement, which should enable growth investments and dividend payments as early as in 2022. Despite low consumer confidence, we believe Q4 will be a good quarter in Finland, although there are uncertainties related to 2023 volume outlook. The company, however, appeared confident about reaching its 2024 top-line target of EUR 400m and a 10% EBIT margin. We derive a DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 10.0-12.5 (9.9-12.1) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

8 NOV 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: A solid performance in Q3 with a confident outlook for important Q4
NoHo Partners reported Q3 EBIT of EUR 8.4m, +10% versus Refinitiv consensus and +6% versus Nordea. Q3 net sales were EUR 86m and came 2% above consensus. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR +10.7m in Q3, while cash position was EUR 4.5m at the end of Q3 (EUR 3.5m at the end of Q2). There were no government grants in Q3. The company recorder EUR 6.7m negative fair value change due to Eezy shareholding to its financing costs (not fully visible in consensus). The guidance for 2022 (upgraded on 3 October) was kept intact. The company is expecting above EUR 300m top line and above 8.5% EBIT margin in restaurant business. Refinitiv consensus has expected EUR 310m sales and an 8.8% EBIT margin in 2022 (Nordea 9.5%). According to the company, the booking situation for Q4 looks good and above the 2019 level. Long-term targets are kept intact and the company targets EUR 400m sales and EUR 40m EBIT in 2024. NoHo Partners expects to reach its below 3x leverage (net debt/operational EBITDA, ex-IFRS 16) target by the year-end and has renewed its financing agreement that enable growth investment during the strategy period. We expect consensus to make slightly positive revisions on the back of Q3 results.

7 NOV 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Q3 likely to be strong, focus on outlook for high season and 2023
NoHo Partners will report its Q3 on 8 November. We are 1% below Refinitiv consensus on the top line and 3% ahead on EBIT, while we believe investor focus will be on outlook for important Q4 and even more on 2023. The company upgraded its guidance on 3 October and expects above EUR 300m sales and above 8.5% EBIT margin from the restaurant business. The company will book a clearly negative impact from Eezy shareholding (not fully visible in consensus) to its financing expenses, while this should not drive the share currently, we believe. We expect a strong Q3 from restaurant business with EUR 83.5m sales and EUR 7.9m EBIT, corresponding to a 9.5% EBIT margin. We note that the Finnish restaurant market, based on Nordea card data, has been robust and clearly above 2019 level, even when adjusting for inflation. Similarly, Nordic restaurant market data from Nordea indicate strong marker performance, especially in Norway. Hence, we believe Q3 will be a strong quarter, while market indications point to a strong reservation situation in Q4 as well. For 2022E, Refinitiv consensus is expecting EUR 310m sales and EUR 29.7m EBIT (9.6% EBIT margin), while we have modelled EUR 306m sales and EUR 29m EBIT (9.5% EBIT margin). For 2023E, we are 1% ahead of consensus on EUR 339m sales and 3% ahead on EUR 30.8m EBIT. Until now, the restaurant market has been resilient in the high inflationary and low consumer confidence environment.

3 OCT 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: The company raises its guidance again given good demand and outlook for the reminder of the year
NoHo raised its turnover and EBIT margin guidance today. The company now expect above EUR 300m sales (earlier around EUR 300m) and above 8.5% EBIT margin (earlier above 8%). Guidance upgrade is due to better-than-anticipated demand after the summer, company’s own profitability development and good booking situation for the rest of the year. Refinitiv consensus has been expecting EUR 308m sales and a 9.4% EBIT margin before the positive profit warning and hence we do not expect any material revision to consensus 2022 expectations. However, it appears that the restaurant market is resilient in the current high inflationary and low consumer confidence environment. For Q3 (due on 8 November), we are in line with consensus on sales and 13% above on EBIT.

13 SEP 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Restaurant market demand appears to be holding well after the summer
The Finnish restaurant market demand has remained solid after summer. Nordea has released card data until week 33 with sales trending clearly above 2019-21. In addition, we note that the company noted in its Q2 that demand has remained favourable early Q3 and bookings for Q4 suggest a solid end to the year. We have considered another guidance upgrade possible in late 2022 and the current market demand situation looks promising. In addition, Kesko disclosed today that its foodservice business (Kespro) sales growth was 28% y/y in August after 3% y/y growth in July. High inflation and low consumer confidence continues to create uncertainties for H2 and 2023, while we believe the restaurant market could be surprisingly resilient, especially after COVID-19 driven restrictions curbed demand during the past years. For Q3, we are in line with Refinitiv consensus on sales and 13% above on EBIT, most likely due to mix effect (higher share of sales from Entertainment venues). We and consensus expect Q3 sales to be up 9% from Q3 2019, which could be viewed conservative when looking the latest card data and taking into consideration acquisitions. For 2022E-23E, we are well in line with consensus.

10 AUG 2022
Commissioned Research: Q2 underlined improved operational efficiency
Q2 EBIT beat Refinitiv consensus by 18%, underlining the improved operational efficiency of the company. Demand has remained favourable in early Q3 and bookings for Q4 suggest a solid end to the year. Guidance was kept intact and we consider another guidance upgrade possible in late 2022. Debt is expected to reach the targeted level in 2022 and the company can then conduct more meaningful acquisitions in 2023 to reach its 2024 top-line target of EUR 400m. Consumer confidence is low and uncertainty is relatively high ahead of an important Q4. We do not expect any meaningful direct impact from inflation. We derive a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.1 (9.8-12.1) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

9 AUG 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Strong Q2 and confident outlook for H2
NoHo Partners reported Q2 EBIT of EUR 16.1m, +18% versus Refinitiv consensus and +2% versus Nordea. Q2 net sales were EUR 90.2m and came in line with consensus and Nordea. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR +18.3m in Q2, while cash position was EUR 3.5m at the end of Q2 (EUR 2.1m at the end of Q1). Government grants were EUR 4.8m in Q2 while we had anticipated EUR 4.3m. The company does not anymore disclose monthly sales figures, while the guidance for 2022 (upgraded on 22 June) was kept intact. The company is expecting around EUR 300m top line and above 8% EBIT margin in restaurant business. Refinitiv consensus has expected EUR 305m sales and 8.9% EBIT margin in 2022. According to the company, the booking situation for Q4 looks good, especially as weekends are concerned. The company has been able to mitigate inflation impact through purchasing agreements, price increases, and recruitment and resource allocation. Overall, the company expects good restaurant demand to continue in H2. Long-term targets are kept intact and the company targets EUR 400m sales and EUR 40m EBIT in 2024. We expect consensus to make slightly positive EBIT revisions.

2 AUG 2022
Commissioned Research: Demand has likely remained strong
NoHo upgraded its guidance on 22 June due to strong demand in the spring and early summer, as well as governmental compensation decisions. We believe demand has remained strong during the summer, but uncertainties over the important high season have increased owing to high inflation and low consumer confidence. Government grants will have a significant positive impact on Q2, and we expect a solid H2 given pent-up demand. Given the mix, we see potential for a further guidance upgrade, although this is unlikely to materialise before Q4, we believe. We derive a fair value range of EUR 9.8-12.1 (10.0-12.4) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

22 JUN 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: The company raises EBIT margin guidance for 2022
NoHo increases its guidance for EBIT margin of the restaurant business in 2022. The company now expect EBIT margin to exceed 8% (earlier: around 7%), supported by better-than-anticipated earnings development in the spring and early summer and compensation decisions confirmed by Finnish, Norwegian and Danish governments for H1. Top line guidance remains intact at around EUR 300m. Post-Q1 Infront consensus has been anticipating EUR 301m sales and 7.5% EBIT margin for 2022E and hence we expect around 6-8% positive consensus revisions. We have been in line with consensus on top line for 2022E, while we have been 5% ahead on EBIT. NoHo will release sales figures for June on week 28 and Q2 report on 9 August.

14 JUN 2022
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Strong May and positive outlook for the summer season
NoHo Partners reported strong May with above EUR 33m sales and above EUR 5.5m operational EBITDA. The company earlier guided for EUR 29-32m sales and 4.5-5.5m operational EBITDA in May. Sales were up 52% compared to May 2019. Normal operations operational EBITDA was EUR 4.5m, while Ice Hockey World Championships boosted top line by EUR 5.7m (Nokia Arena in Tampere). May was third consecutive month with around 15% operational EBITDA margin. The company maintained its June guidance intact and expects sales of EUR 27-30m and operational EBITDA of EUR 3.5-4.5m. In addition to robust Q2 expectations, the company expects fairly positive outlook for the rest of the summer season due to strong potential of entertainment venues. June sales guidance mid-point indicates some 3% upside to consensus Q2 top line (post-Q1 Infront consensus at EUR 88m) and ~1% for 2022E (EUR 301m). We have anticipated EUR 12.8m operational EBITDA in Q2 (no consensus), while the company guidance mid-point for June indicates some EUR 14m operational EBITDA for Q2. We have a fair value range of EUR 10.0-12.4 per NoHo share.

Equity analysts

Analyst
Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Aku Vikström

CFO: Jarno Vilponen

Chairman: Timo Laine

Numbers
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Nordea
EURm
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022E
2023E
2024E
Total revenues
323.2
272.8
156.8
186.1
309.9
340.9
366.4
Ebitda (adj.)
33.70
75.60
21.29
34.50
71.04
79.06
88.28
Ebitda - margin
10.4%
27.7%
13.6%
18.5%
22.9%
23.2%
24.1%
EBIT (adj.)
12.5
31.1
-30.7
-12.6
24.1
29.3
37.0
EBIT (adj.) margin
3.9%
11.4%
-19.6%
-6.7%
7.8%
8.6%
10.1%
PTP (adj.)
11.8
23.7
-39.9
-24.4
5.4
17.5
25.2
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
10.45
22.23
-34.56
-22.00
1.96
14.66
20.63
Shareholders´ Equity
67.1
129.3
76.1
64.4
80.7
88.2
97.1
Net interest bearing debt
138.0
267.6
317.6
321.6
307.2
265.6
251.8
Net gearing
182.0%
195.3%
392.2%
463.5%
344.5%
266.4%
228.2%
Net debt/EBITDA
4.9
3.6
11.3
7.0
3.9
3.4
2.9
Free cash flow to equity
-58.4
23.9
2.7
36.0
39.0
52.3
59.9
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
18.9
19.0
19.2
19.2
20.7
20.7
20.7
Nordea Markets estimates published on Nov 9, 2022
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022E
2023E
2024E
EPS (adj.)
0.54
2.27
-1.66
-1.16
-0.08
0.56
0.83
EPS (adj.) growth
27.4%
318.9%
-173.3%
30.1%
93.4%
830.1%
47.5%
DPS
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.45
BVPS
3.6
6.8
4.0
3.3
3.9
4.3
4.7
P/E (adj.)
16.0
4.5
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
12.7
8.6
EV/Sales
0.96
1.73
3.05
2.54
1.50
1.25
1.13
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
9.21
6.23
22.43
13.72
6.53
5.38
4.68
EV/EBIT (adj.)
24.87
15.56
n.a.
n.a.
19.28
14.54
11.17
P/BV
2.44
1.51
2.03
2.28
1.84
1.68
1.53
Dividend yield
3.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.8%
5.6%
6.3%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
5.2%
9.9%
-18.3%
3.8%
8.0%
11.9%
16.3%
RoE
6.2%
45.6%
-26.1%
-15.1%
7.4%
13.8%
18.6%
ROIC
6.0%
7.9%
-6.3%
-2.8%
5.6%
6.8%
8.7%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Nov 9, 2022
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Refinitiv