NoHo Partners

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 171.21
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
NOHO FH
NOHOP.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 8.34

Latest Reports

23 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: CMD provided more clarity on international growth strategy
NoHo Partners hosted a CMD yesterday, where it talked about its new strategy and long-term targets for the strategy period 2025-27. The main takeaway in our opinion was the new strategy for international growth: the key here is to grow internationally trough investment activities, where NoHo seeks for investor partnerships, develops the investment together with the partner, creates value for the investment and then exits at a later stage. Hence, NoHo would act as an active investor, holding either a majority or a minority share, in which case the numbers would not be consolidated into the group numbers, and our focus would turn more towards earnings per share. We were left with an impression that this model allows for faster growth, at the same time retaining the operative power. In Finland, NoHo aims to continue its profitable growth through e.g., new openings and acquisitions, and we view the EUR 400m sales target by 2027 as achievable. In conclusion, the CMD provided confirmation that while the new strategy is ambitious and somewhat more risky, in our view, NoHo’s execution will still be careful and thought-through. With the current portfolio, we now model a 7% sales CAGR for 2023-27E, while growth through new openings and majority ownership acquisitions would provide upside to our estimates. Given NoHo’s new strategy, we view the investment case as compelling, especially in the long-term.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
22 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Net financial targets aim for profitable growth, especially internationally
Late last night, NoHo Partners updated its financial targets for the strategy period 2025-2027. In its Finnish operations, the company now aims to reach net sales of EUR 400m by 2027, and to maintain the current EBIT margin level (2023: 10.5%). We currently model EUR 332m in net sales for Finland for 2027E, so the new target implies a 20% upside to that, or a 10% CAGR for 2024E-27. We believe that achieving the target might require acquisitions, but it seems achievable. For the international operations, NoHo aims for profitable growth and creating shareholder value, leaving numeric targets open. We now model a 6% international sales CAGR for 2025E-27E. We believe NoHo will focus on international growth through acquisitions and different strategic and options similar to the Better Burger Society ownership, and leaving the international targets open-ended leaves vast room for this. Moreover, NoHo lowered its net debt to operational EBITDA target from the current 3x to approximately 2x in the long term, which we view reasonable given the current debt structure and the aim to look for financing options outside debt. While we view the targets as achievable, leaving the international targets open-ended was somewhat disappointing to us, but we expect to hear more reasoning behind this at NoHo’s CMD today. However, given NoHo’s strong track record on executing targets, we expect a positive share price reaction today.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
20 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Capital Markets Day to provide new long-term targets and insights into growth drivers
NoHo Partners will host a Capital Markets Day on Wednesday, 22 May. At the CMD, the company will publish its long-term strategic and financial targets for the next strategy period 2024-26. NoHo’s previous targets, EUR 400m in net sales with an adjusted EBIT margin of approximately 10% during 2024, will be achieved by the end of the year. For the next strategy period, we expect NoHo to aim for approximately EUR 600m in net sales during 2026, growth focusing mainly on international operations and acquisitions. We expect the adjusted EBIT margin target to remain intact at approximately 10%, which is already clearly above industry average. We also believe that NoHo could update its target for net debt/operational EBITDA to below 2.5x from the current 3.0x. In addition to the new targets, we expect the company to talk more about possible financing and business restructuring, such as the Better Burger Society, which would enable more agile growth with partners. We currently model EUR 470m in net sales with an adjusted EBIT margin of 10% for 2026E. Our estimates do not include any unannounced M&A.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
8 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Solid results in still-shaky markets
NoHo Partners' Q1 2024 results were largely in line with Vara Research consensus expectations. Net sales were up by 23% y/y and EBIT rose by 17%, mainly driven by the international operations and the acquisition of Holy Cow!, while in Finland the market was more muted. H1 is still characterised by an uncertain market development, but we believe H2 sales growth should be supported by improving consumer purchasing power, especially in the domestic market. NoHo will introduce new targets up until 2027 at its CMD on 22 May, and we believe it will focus on international growth. We argue that Q1 offered a solid start to the year and derive a higher fair value range of EUR 10.1-12.9 (9.7-12.4) per share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
7 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Solid Q1 results in a fluctuating operating environment
NoHo Partners reported Q1 EBIT of EUR 6.9m, 2% above Vara consensus and our estimate. Q1 net sales were up 23% y/y at EUR 93.5m, fairly in line with consensus and our estimate. Finland profitability came 16% below our expectations, while International was clearly above. The strong profitability development (EBIT +17% y/y) was mainly thanks to the Holy Cow! business and the stable profitability of Norway and Denmark. In the CEO comments, the company notes that the market is expected to remain fluctuating also in Q2, while a possible interest rate cut should boost demand in H2. We believe this is true especially in Finland. Guidance for 2024 was reiterated: NoHo expects around EUR 430m sales and around 9.5% EBIT margin from restaurant business, implying a 15% sales growth y/y and slight pressure on EBIT. Pre-Q1 Vara consensus has expected EUR 433m sales and an 9.5% EBIT margin in 2024. Following the solid Q1 results, we expect to see limited consensus estimate revisions.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
17 APR 2024
Commissioned Research: Solid expectations ahead of setting new targets
Ahead of NoHo Partners' Q1 report, we leave our estimates largely intact. While the domestic market was muted during Q1 owing to weak consumer purchasing power, the international operations are developing well. Moreover, we believe NoHo's concepts outperform the market even in a softer environment. As the previous financial targets will be reached ahead of time, we expect NoHo to update its strategy and financial targets at its capital markets day on 22 May. Our DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range is adjusted to EUR 9.7-12.4 (9.7-12.3). Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
20 MAR 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: CEO to leave the company by the end of August
To be entitled to profit sharing for 2023 you can not be a part of any variable pay program, you must have worked at least 25% during 2023 and you must have been employed on December 31, 2023. Then you get profit shares in relation to your worked time during 2023. Those employees who are eligible for profit sharing will get information about their working time in Benify on April 3. During summer (last year it was in June) PRI will send an e-mail to inform about the profit shares to eligible employees and they will then be able to login to PRI with Bank-ID and see their profit shares.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
16 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Guidance points towards another year of growth
NoHo Partners' Q4 2023 EBIT fell 5% short of Vara Research consensus but grew by 25% y/y, with sales up by 22%. More importantly, despite the gloomy outlook for the Finnish economy in H1 2024, NoHo guides for sales of approximately EUR 430m with an EBIT margin of around 9.5%, indicating growth of 15%. Leverage is now at the company's target of 3.0x, and we believe it will continue with its M&A agenda later this year as deleveraging continues. NoHo will host a CMD in May, at which time we expect it to release new financial targets and strategy. We expect to see another strong year for the company and we derive a DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 9.7-12.3 (11.7-14.7) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
15 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Solid Q4 results largely in line with expectations, 2024 outlook suggest 15% growth
NoHo Partners reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 10.6m, -5% versus Vara consensus and -6% versus our estimate. Q4 net sales were up 22% y/y at EUR 107m, in line with consensus and our estimates. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR 13.5m in Q4 (EUR 11.5m a year ago). Finland profitability came 7% below our expectations and International 4% below. The company recorded the expected EUR 2.7m negative fair value change due to Eezy shareholding to its financing costs, while EUR 1.2m will be recorded in 2024. Adjusted EPS was EUR 0.28. Leverage (net debt/operational EBITDA ex-IFRS 16) was 3.0x and decreased due to the completion of the Eezy divestment. The strong profitability development (EBIT +25% y/y) was mainly thanks to the Holy Cow! business, where integration is progressing well with KPIs developing above NoHo’s expectations. In CEO comments, the company notes that the weak outlook of the Finnish economy and consumer purchasing power creates uncertainty especially during H1, but a positive development of the restaurant market continues. A new guidance for 2024 was introduced; NoHo expects around EUR 430m sales and around 9.5% EBIT margin from restaurant business, implying a 15% sales growth and slight pressure on EBIT. Pre-Q4 Vara consensus has expected EUR 438m sales and an 9.7% EBIT margin in 2024. We expect consensus to slightly trim the top-line and EBIT estimates for 2024, while we expect 2025 estimates to remain largely intact.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
30 JAN 2024
Commissioned Research: Focus shifting towards new targets
Ahead of NoHo's Q4 report, due on 15 February, we adjust our estimates to reflect the guidance update released on 20 December. Otherwise, our expectations are unchanged. We model 2023 net sales of EUR 372m, with an EBIT margin of 9.8%. We believe NoHo's 2024 will be characterised by M&A, with the aim of growing market share in Norway. The company will update its strategy and financial targets during H1, as it will reach the previous targets ahead of time, in our view, and we believe it will accelerate its growth ambitions. Our DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range is trimmed to EUR 11.7-14.7 (12.0-15.0) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä

Equity analysts

Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Aku Vikström

CFO: Jarno Vilponen

Chairman: Timo Laine

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
EURm
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
Total revenues
156.8
186.1
312.8
372.3
434.8
452.1
470.2
Ebitda (adj.)
21.29
34.50
72.60
85.20
101.26
105.34
109.43
Ebitda - margin
13.6%
18.5%
23.2%
22.9%
23.3%
23.3%
23.3%
EBIT (adj.)
-30.7
-12.6
24.8
37.4
42.3
44.6
46.8
EBIT (adj.) margin
-19.6%
-6.7%
7.9%
10.0%
9.7%
9.9%
10.0%
PTP (adj.)
-39.9
-24.4
2.3
14.3
24.6
28.1
30.4
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
-34.56
-22.00
-2.00
11.60
20.16
22.23
24.03
Shareholders´ Equity
76.1
64.4
74.8
78.1
85.0
93.0
101.6
Net interest bearing debt
317.6
321.6
290.4
349.1
328.1
319.0
308.0
Net gearing
392.2%
463.5%
354.1%
326.9%
283.3%
252.9%
224.5%
Net debt/EBITDA
11.3
7.0
3.7
4.2
3.2
3.0
2.8
Free cash flow to equity
2.7
36.0
56.1
72.1
66.2
64.1
68.1
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
19.2
19.2
20.8
21.0
20.5
20.5
20.5
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 8, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
EPS (adj.)
-1.66
-1.16
-0.27
0.44
0.77
0.86
0.93
EPS (adj.) growth
-173.3%
30.1%
76.8%
261.4%
76.6%
11.5%
8.1%
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.40
0.43
0.47
0.51
0.55
BVPS
4.0
3.3
3.6
3.7
4.1
4.5
4.9
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
20.3
10.8
9.7
9.0
EV/Sales
3.05
2.54
1.40
1.51
1.22
1.16
1.09
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
22.43
13.72
6.02
6.61
5.24
4.97
4.70
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
17.63
15.06
12.55
11.74
10.99
P/BV
2.03
2.28
1.87
2.37
2.01
1.84
1.69
Dividend yield
0.0%
0.0%
6.0%
4.9%
5.6%
6.1%
6.6%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
-15.1%
2.4%
21.8%
2.9%
13.0%
11.0%
12.6%
RoE
-26.1%
-15.1%
2.2%
9.9%
19.6%
19.8%
19.6%
ROIC
-6.3%
-2.8%
5.8%
7.7%
7.8%
8.4%
8.9%
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 8, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics