NoHo Partners

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 219.41
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
NOHO FH
NOHOP.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 11.40

Latest Reports

13 FEB 2020
Commissioned Research: Faster growth from new fast food concept
NoHo Partners announced yesterday that it would acquire a majority stake (~70%) in fast food chain Friends & Brgrs, which operates ten restaurants, nine of which are located in Finland. NoHo Partners is aiming for 30-50 Friends & Brgrs restaurants in the next three years and plans to open at least five new restaurants in 2020 in the Helsinki metropolitan area; for 2020, the aim is to reach EUR 15m in sales. The company also plans to open its first "cloud kitchen", which is a centralised kitchen aimed at digital restaurant orders and home deliveries.

19 DEC 2019
Commissioned Research: Positive profit warning
After its positive profit warning yesterday, NoHo Partners now expects to post net sales for the Restaurant business (continued operations) of EUR 270m (previously EUR 260m) and an EBIT margin of 6.5% (previously above 6%), implying EBIT of EUR 17.6m. The guidance upgrade did not come as a big surprise, as we had expected a 6.7% EBIT margin from NoHo's Restaurant business. In addition, on Monday the company announced the acquisition of five restaurants in Norway, which we see as a positive sign. After the recent divestment of the labour hire business (Smile), we believe the company is less sensitive to economic fluctuations.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
13 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: Restaurant business well on track
Q3 adjusted EBIT for the Restaurant business was EUR 6.2m, broadly in line with our EUR 6.4m estimate (no consensus). The targeted synergies from the Royal Ravintolat acquisitions have materialised at a good pace, as expected. We believe that the Norwegian operations will continue to perform well in the near term, whereas the increased efficiency measures should help the Danish business to get back on track. For the continued operations (the Restaurant business), we expect increasing profitability (7.5% in 2021E versus 3.0% in 2018). After the recent divestment of the labour hire business (Smile), we believe the company is less sensitive to economic fluctuations and hence less risky. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
28 AUG 2019
Commissioned Research: Now a pure-play restaurant company
NoHo has completed the divestment of its Labour hire business (Smile Henkilöstöpalvelut) to the listed personnel services company VMP Group. We view the divestment positively, as it clarifies NoHo's structure, improves its balance sheet and reduces the business risk (labour hire is more cyclical than the restaurant business). On top of the Smile divestment, we expect NoHo to replace its EUR 25m hybrid debt with bank loans. For 2019, we estimate that net gearing will drop from 95% to around 65%. We do not make any changes to our Restaurant business estimates; we merely remove Smile from NoHo's group figures from September 2019.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
7 AUG 2019
Commissioned Research: Good momentum in the restaurant business
Q2 adjusted EBIT was EUR 5.8m, clearly above our EUR 2.8m estimate and Thomson Reuters' consensus of EUR 4.0m. The beat came largely from the Restaurant business, where targeted synergies of EUR 6m from the Royal Ravintolat acquisitions materialised faster than anticipated and will likely exceed the original goal, according to the company (we estimate EUR 7m for 2019). In the coming years, we expect the momentum in the Restaurant business to remain healthy. We also consider the likely divestment of Smile as a positive development, as labour hire growth is expected to lose some steam when overall GDP slows down and the decreasing availability of workers in the labour force poses challenges for market growth. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
8 JUL 2019
Commissioned Research: Smile divestment looks attractive for NoHo
NoHo has announced that it plans to sell its Labour Hire business, Smile, to VMP, a Finnish HR services company, in a share exchange. Afterward, NoHo will remain as the largest shareholder of Smile with a 30% stake. We believe the deal makes sense and clarifies NoHo's business structure, but we also expect the deal to have a positive effect on NoHo's valuation – the implied 2020E EV/EBIT of the company's Restaurant business is clearly below that of its European peers (10.4x versus 13.2x for 2020E). The Smile divestment should enable NoHo to meet its 2021 Restaurant business targets without new equity, as well. In our "Illustration of post-deal estimates" section, we have laid out the potential new financials for NoHo. – Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners

Analysts: Joni Sandvall
3 JUN 2019
Commissioned Research: Leading the way in restaurants and labour hire
NoHo Partners is a Finnish restaurant and labour hire company. It operates mainly in Finland but also has restaurant operations in Denmark and Norway. Mostly via M&A, the company has grown rapidly in recent years at a sales CAGR of 38% in 2013-2018. We expect the underlying markets to be good for NoHo, but slowing GDP growth could have a slight dampening effect on NoHo's growth and particularly its Labour hire segment. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Joni Sandvall

Equity analysts

Analyst
Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Aku Vikström

CFO: Jarno Suominen

Chairman: Timo Laine

Numbers
Nordea
EURm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
113.6
130.1
185.9
323.2
328.8
300.4
313.0
Ebitda (adj.)
17.21
19.74
22.70
33.70
70.49
70.80
74.91
Ebitda - margin
15.2%
15.2%
12.2%
10.4%
21.4%
23.6%
23.9%
EBIT (adj.)
7.9
9.3
11.1
12.5
24.2
21.9
23.3
EBIT (adj.) margin
7.0%
7.2%
6.0%
3.9%
7.4%
7.3%
7.4%
PTP (adj.)
6.7
8.2
10.0
11.8
17.7
19.2
20.8
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
5.48
6.20
7.50
10.45
15.04
16.09
17.09
Shareholders´ Equity
39.6
43.3
44.9
67.1
129.0
111.5
119.4
Net interest bearing debt
29.3
30.7
43.8
138.0
260.6
287.7
276.0
Net gearing
73.1%
69.8%
93.3%
182.0%
186.4%
232.3%
207.1%
Net debt/EBITDA
1.8
1.6
2.0
4.9
3.7
4.1
3.7
Free cash flow to equity
-3.3
3.6
-5.1
-58.4
17.0
29.6
45.1
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
16.4
16.6
16.6
18.9
19.0
19.2
19.2
Nordea Markets estimates published on Feb 13, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
EUR and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
EPS (adj.)
0.35
0.37
0.43
0.54
2.17
0.76
0.81
EPS (adj.) growth
46.1%
3.6%
16.1%
27.4%
300.7%
-65.0%
6.7%
DPS
0.27
0.30
0.33
0.34
0.37
0.40
0.43
BVPS
2.4
2.6
2.7
3.6
6.8
5.8
6.2
P/E (adj.)
14.2
16.4
20.1
16.0
5.2
15.0
14.1
EV/Sales
0.98
1.01
1.01
0.96
1.49
1.73
1.63
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
6.49
6.65
8.29
9.21
6.93
7.34
6.80
EV/EBIT (adj.)
14.07
14.06
17.00
24.87
20.19
23.76
21.87
P/BV
2.07
2.31
3.17
2.44
1.68
1.97
1.84
Dividend yield
5.4%
5.0%
3.9%
3.9%
3.2%
3.5%
3.8%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
2.3%
6.3%
4.7%
5.2%
5.2%
6.8%
8.9%
RoE
12.8%
13.5%
11.5%
6.2%
44.1%
12.1%
13.5%
ROIC
9.5%
9.8%
10.2%
6.0%
6.5%
5.7%
6.0%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Feb 13, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters