NoHo Partners

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 148.22
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
NOHO FH
NOHOP.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 7.22

Latest Reports

6 NOV 2024
Commissioned Research: High expectations for the peak season
NoHo Partners' Q3 2024 results missed Vara Research expectations on several items, but the guidance for 2024 was reiterated. While the guidance places a lot of pressure on Q4 growth and earnings improvement, we view the solid pre-Christmas season reservation levels 10% ahead of last year as encouraging. In addition, the Finnish operations' Q3 profitability was above our expectation, despite a soft market. This was positive to us, and we argue that demand should improve during 2025. We derive a fair value range of EUR 10.9-13.7 (10.8-13.7) per NoHo share by equally weighting our DCF- and multiples-based valuation methods. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
5 NOV 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Reiterated guidance puts a lot of pressure on Q4 performance
NoHo Partners reported Q3 EBIT of EUR 9.9m (+14% y/y), 5% below Vara Research consensus and 11% below our estimate. Q3 net sales were up 11% y/y at EUR 107m, but fell 3% below consensus and 5% below our estimate. We believe the miss was mainly attributable to the International operations, which fell 34% below our expectations on EBIT. We believe this was mainly due to the seasonally softer quarter in Switzerland. The Finnish operations’ EBIT beat our estimate by 8% despite the weak market. NoHo expects demand to recover during 2025 and notes a good number of event reservations for H2. Guidance for 2024 was reiterated: NoHo expects around EUR 430m sales and around 9.5% EBIT margin, implying a 15% sales growth y/y and slight pressure on EBIT. For Q4, the reiterated guidance indicates significant y/y improvement (+15% for sales and +35% for EBIT). However, we continue to view the guidance as challenging, and expect moderate revisions on 2024E consensus EBIT following the Q3 results.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
29 OCT 2024
Commissioned Research: Cooler weather, slightly cooler expectations
Ahead of its Q3 2024 report, we take a slightly more cautious view towards NoHo Partners' revenue development, given the prevailing market softness in the Nordics. While we expect NoHo's International business to continue its solid growth, and even though we incorporate the newest acquisition in Finland into our estimates, we regard NoHo's current 2024 guidance for EUR ~430m in sales and around a 9.5% EBIT margin as being at risk. However, we note that Q4 accounts for ~30% of annual earnings, and thus could swing estimates both ways. By incorporating slightly higher valuation multiples, we derive an increased DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 10.8-13.7 (10.1-12.9) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
8 OCT 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Acquired eight restaurants in Tampere
NoHo Partners has acquired H5 Ravintolat Oy, which owns eight restaurants in Tampere. The portfolio includes one night club, one lounge bar, pubs and the restaurant operations of the brand new Tammela football stadium. The acquisition was made through stock transaction, and while the transaction price was not disclosed, we believe it has been moderate given the current weak market environment and based on NoHo’s earlier transactions (~4-5x EV/EBITDA). The previous owners will retain minority ownership and operational role in the business, and based on NoHo’s earlier transactions, we believe NoHo’s ownership could be between 60-80% of the total entity. In 2023, H5 Ravintolat generated net sales of EUR 8.5m with an EBIT margin of 13%, which is very good for a portfolio of restaurants, in our view. It’s net sales CAGR in 2019-23 was 58%, while EBIT CAGR was 64%. Hence, while being relatively small in size (~2% of NoHo’s 2025E revenue and ~2.5% of 2025E EBIT assuming the 13% margin) we believe that the acquired businesses will contribute positively in NoHo’s profitability going forward. We also view the restaurant operations of the Tammela stadium as particularly interesting, as it adds to NoHo’s portfolio of event venues (NoHo already operates the Nokia Arena in Tampere).

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
7 AUG 2024
Commissioned Research: Waiting for markets to improve
NoHo Partners' Q2 2024 results missed the Vara Research consensus' high expectations, but we nevertheless argue that the results were solid considering the challenging market. The Finnish market was soft, but International operations beat our expectations, and we anticipate a gradual pickup in Finland during H2. NoHo Partners reiterated its 2024 guidance of roughly EUR 430m in sales with an EBIT margin of around 9.5%, and its good reservation levels are cautiously positive ahead of the holiday season in Q4. We derive a fair value range of EUR 10.1-12.9 (10.7-13.6) per share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
6 AUG 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: NoHo Partners - Q2 fell behind high expectations due to Finnish operations
NoHo Partners reported Q2 EBIT of EUR 9.7m (-9% y/y), 17% below Vara Research consensus and 20% below our estimate. Q2 net sales were up 15% y/y at EUR 107m, but fell 5% below consensus and 6% below our estimate. We believe the miss was mainly attributable to Finnish operations, which fell 28% below our expectations on EBIT, while International was 8% above. The domestic market remained challenging, and we note the exceptionally strong comparison period thanks to the Ice Hockey World Championships organized at Nokia Arena. However, the company expects demand to recover during H2 and notes a good number of event reservations for H2. Guidance for 2024 was reiterated: NoHo expects around EUR 430m sales and around 9.5% EBIT margin, implying a 15% sales growth y/y and slight pressure on EBIT. Mathematically, the Q2 results would imply a 5% cut on 2024E consensus EBIT, but given the back-end loaded revenue and profit recognition in 2024 and as the pre-Q2 Vara consensus is forecasting revenue and margin in line with the reiterated guidance, we expect consensus estimate revisions to be muted.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
23 JUL 2024
Commissioned Research: Expectations for Q2 remain solid
Ahead of its Q2 results on 6 August, we remain positive about NoHo's relative performance in a muted market environment. We expect NoHo's international business to have continued its solid development seen in Q1, while in Finland the strong and versatile portfolio supports above-market growth. After the company set new targets in May, we remain upbeat about NoHo Partners' outlook, and argue that a guidance upgrade could be possible during H2. We derive an increased fair value range of EUR 10.7-13.6 (10.1-12.9) by equally weighting our DCF- and SOTP-based valuation methods. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
23 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: CMD provided more clarity on international growth strategy
NoHo Partners hosted a CMD yesterday, where it talked about its new strategy and long-term targets for the strategy period 2025-27. The main takeaway in our opinion was the new strategy for international growth: the key here is to grow internationally trough investment activities, where NoHo seeks for investor partnerships, develops the investment together with the partner, creates value for the investment and then exits at a later stage. Hence, NoHo would act as an active investor, holding either a majority or a minority share, in which case the numbers would not be consolidated into the group numbers, and our focus would turn more towards earnings per share. We were left with an impression that this model allows for faster growth, at the same time retaining the operative power. In Finland, NoHo aims to continue its profitable growth through e.g., new openings and acquisitions, and we view the EUR 400m sales target by 2027 as achievable. In conclusion, the CMD provided confirmation that while the new strategy is ambitious and somewhat more risky, in our view, NoHo’s execution will still be careful and thought-through. With the current portfolio, we now model a 7% sales CAGR for 2023-27E, while growth through new openings and majority ownership acquisitions would provide upside to our estimates. Given NoHo’s new strategy, we view the investment case as compelling, especially in the long-term.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
22 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Net financial targets aim for profitable growth, especially internationally
Late last night, NoHo Partners updated its financial targets for the strategy period 2025-2027. In its Finnish operations, the company now aims to reach net sales of EUR 400m by 2027, and to maintain the current EBIT margin level (2023: 10.5%). We currently model EUR 332m in net sales for Finland for 2027E, so the new target implies a 20% upside to that, or a 10% CAGR for 2024E-27. We believe that achieving the target might require acquisitions, but it seems achievable. For the international operations, NoHo aims for profitable growth and creating shareholder value, leaving numeric targets open. We now model a 6% international sales CAGR for 2025E-27E. We believe NoHo will focus on international growth through acquisitions and different strategic and options similar to the Better Burger Society ownership, and leaving the international targets open-ended leaves vast room for this. Moreover, NoHo lowered its net debt to operational EBITDA target from the current 3x to approximately 2x in the long term, which we view reasonable given the current debt structure and the aim to look for financing options outside debt. While we view the targets as achievable, leaving the international targets open-ended was somewhat disappointing to us, but we expect to hear more reasoning behind this at NoHo’s CMD today. However, given NoHo’s strong track record on executing targets, we expect a positive share price reaction today.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä
20 MAY 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Capital Markets Day to provide new long-term targets and insights into growth drivers
NoHo Partners will host a Capital Markets Day on Wednesday, 22 May. At the CMD, the company will publish its long-term strategic and financial targets for the next strategy period 2024-26. NoHo’s previous targets, EUR 400m in net sales with an adjusted EBIT margin of approximately 10% during 2024, will be achieved by the end of the year. For the next strategy period, we expect NoHo to aim for approximately EUR 600m in net sales during 2026, growth focusing mainly on international operations and acquisitions. We expect the adjusted EBIT margin target to remain intact at approximately 10%, which is already clearly above industry average. We also believe that NoHo could update its target for net debt/operational EBITDA to below 2.5x from the current 3.0x. In addition to the new targets, we expect the company to talk more about possible financing and business restructuring, such as the Better Burger Society, which would enable more agile growth with partners. We currently model EUR 470m in net sales with an adjusted EBIT margin of 10% for 2026E. Our estimates do not include any unannounced M&A.

Analysts: Sanna Perälä

Equity analysts

Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Jarno Suominen

CFO: Jarno Vilponen

Chairman: Timo Laine

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
EURm
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
Total revenues
156.9
186.0
314.8
372.3
428.7
456.1
478.6
Ebitda (adj.)
34.87
57.92
86.40
82.20
98.97
105.52
110.23
Ebitda - margin
22.2%
31.1%
27.4%
22.1%
23.1%
23.1%
23.0%
EBIT (adj.)
-17.1
10.9
38.6
34.4
39.8
44.5
47.4
EBIT (adj.) margin
-10.9%
5.8%
12.3%
9.2%
9.3%
9.8%
9.9%
PTP (adj.)
-25.8
-0.7
16.1
11.3
18.3
26.0
29.2
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
-20.45
1.70
11.80
8.60
14.84
20.54
23.07
Shareholders´ Equity
76.1
64.4
74.8
78.1
80.5
86.7
93.9
Net interest bearing debt
317.6
321.6
290.4
349.1
337.1
325.7
312.2
Net gearing
392.2%
463.5%
354.1%
326.9%
304.5%
272.8%
241.1%
Net debt/EBITDA
11.3
7.0
3.7
4.2
3.4
3.1
2.8
Free cash flow to equity
2.7
36.0
56.1
72.1
57.2
66.3
70.5
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
19.2
19.2
20.8
21.0
20.5
20.5
20.5
Nordea Markets estimates published on Nov 6, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
EPS (adj.)
-0.93
0.07
0.42
0.29
0.55
0.77
0.86
EPS (adj.) growth
-176.1%
107.9%
474.9%
-30.4%
88.4%
39.9%
12.3%
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.40
0.43
0.47
0.51
0.55
BVPS
4.0
3.3
3.6
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.6
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
16.0
30.3
13.1
9.4
8.3
EV/Sales
3.04
2.54
1.39
1.51
1.20
1.11
1.04
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
13.69
8.17
5.06
6.85
5.21
4.80
4.50
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
44.70
11.33
16.37
12.96
11.37
10.46
P/BV
2.03
2.28
1.87
2.37
1.84
1.71
1.58
Dividend yield
0.0%
0.0%
6.0%
4.9%
6.5%
7.1%
7.6%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
-15.1%
2.4%
21.8%
2.9%
8.9%
14.2%
16.2%
RoE
-25.6%
-14.6%
2.2%
9.9%
14.4%
18.9%
19.7%
ROIC
-3.4%
2.5%
9.0%
7.1%
7.4%
8.4%
9.1%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Nov 6, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics