NoHo Partners

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Consumer Goods
EUR 101.62
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
NOHO FH
NOHOP.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 5.28

Latest Reports

12 AUG 2020
Commissioned Research: Uncertainties after an encouraging start to Q3
The outlook for H2 was the main focal point of NoHo Partners' Q2 report. July sales were down 25%, to EUR 20m, but the gradual improvement continued. The company expects sales of around EUR 19m in August, with clearly positive operating cash flow. NoHo's base case for H2 seems somewhat cautious to us, with sales down 15-30% y/y in H2, while the more important operating cash flow should remain positive and allow debt reduction in H2. The EUR 12.5m commercial paper programme is due in Q3, while the larger funding package is due in Q2 2021. Although the restaurant market seems to be enjoying some positive momentum, demand might change rapidly if the COVID-19 situation worsens. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

28 JUL 2020
Commissioned Research: Positive momentum in the restaurant market
After the easing of restrictions at the beginning of June, the Finnish restaurant market has recovered faster than anticipated. Although NoHo's sales were still down 45% in June, we believe the market recovery began to pick up steam towards the end of the month and into July. The outlook for the rest of the year seems more favourable than it did at the beginning of June, which is also supported by card data from Nordea; card payments in Finnish restaurants were above last year's level at the beginning of July. We remain slightly cautious about the important Q4, however, as corporate spending might be subdued due to cost savings. It seems that the company will remain cash-flow positive for the rest of the year, although we still see the possibility of a dilutive equity issue. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

10 JUN 2020
Commissioned Research: Serving with restricted offering
NoHo provided further information on the current environment in conjunction with its Q1 results. Finnish restaurants reopened a week ago, and sales and reservations in the first week have been promising. The company expects sales to normalise gradually during the year, and keeps its 2021 financial targets intact. The outlook remains cloudy, however, and a lot depends on whether consumer demand remains after the initial rebound amid the still ongoing pandemic. NoHo is confident that it will remain at least at break-even on the cash flow level for the rest of the year, while we expect the company to seek more stable funding during H2 2020. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

1 JUN 2020
Commissioned Research: Restaurants are finally opening in Finland
After the easing of restrictions, restaurants in Denmark and Norway have been open for some weeks, while restaurants in Finland will open on 1 June. We do not expect a fast recovery for NoHo, although sales are initially likely to be strong, especially for terraces, given the favourable weather and pent-up demand. The outlook for NoHo and restaurants in general remains cloudy and lot depends on when and how restaurant restrictions will be eased further, as well as on how consumers will start using restaurant services amid the still ongoing pandemic. NoHo was able to secure funding for its EUR 22m commercial paper programme last week and has agreed on a EUR 10m convertible debt with Finnish Industry Investment (Tesi), which should ensure financing until 2021. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

6 APR 2020
Commissioned Research: First hurdle passed
NoHo Partners reached an agreement for EUR 34m of bridge financing on Friday. The financing package should secure operations in 2020, although the company still needs to secure funding for its EUR 22m commercial paper (CP) programme due in May. NoHo has agreed rent reliefs in Finland for some 60% of the contract portfolio, while in Denmark and Norway the state is covering some 80% of lease costs during the crisis. The length of the crisis is uncertain and further industry restrictions are possible. Despite the financing relief, a rights issue is very likely since we forecast an equity ratio of 20% for 2020. - Marketing material commissioned by Noho Partners

30 MAR 2020
Commissioned Research: Financing has to be secured urgently
We believe NoHo's liquidity is running out and funding is required urgently. In February, NoHo redeemed its EUR 25m hybrid, which was unfortunate timing. We believe NoHo needs at least EUR 30m in funds, which could come from selling assets (Eezy), government loan, lenders increasing their loan facilities or from a new hybrid bond. But we think the most likely scenario is a rights issue underwritten by the stakeholders. Based on the current share price, we estimate the dilution of current shareholders would be ~30% in the case of a EUR 30m rights issue. As NoHo has few marketable or tangible assets, we think stakeholders would be more inclined to support a rights issue than let NoHo fail on its obligations.

16 MAR 2020
Commissioned Research: Handbrake applied
NoHo Partners issued a coronavirus-driven profit warning on Friday. The company withdrew its guidance as it has no visibility on how long the situation will last. However, the guidance for 2021 was kept intact and we expect it to try bold M&A moves when the impact of the coronavirus starts to take its toll on the restaurant market. Restaurants in Denmark and Norway are closed, while the company is adjusting its cost base in Finland with cooperation negotiations. We think 2020 is a lost year, but 2021 might be good if it can gain market share as smaller restaurant players close. However, a prolonged situation might lead to balance sheet issues when general liquidity can be scarce. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

6 MAR 2020
Commissioned Research: Good trajectory towards medium-term targets
Q4 adjusted EBIT for the Restaurant business was EUR 6.8m, above the guided level and our lowered estimates. The dividend proposal of EUR 0.55 (including a EUR 0.15 extra dividend) is well above the Thomson Reuters consensus estimate of EUR 0.39. We view the guidance of EUR 300m sales and a 9% EBIT margin in 2020 as somewhat cautious. The coronavirus situation, however, creates uncertainties around 2020 estimates. The company seeks growth from fast casual, entertainment venues and international restaurants, and is well on track for its 2021 Restaurant segment targets of net sales of EUR 350m and an EBIT margin of 8.0%. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.

13 FEB 2020
Commissioned Research: Faster growth from new fast food concept
NoHo Partners announced yesterday that it would acquire a majority stake (~70%) in fast food chain Friends & Brgrs, which operates ten restaurants, nine of which are located in Finland. NoHo Partners is aiming for 30-50 Friends & Brgrs restaurants in the next three years and plans to open at least five new restaurants in 2020 in the Helsinki metropolitan area; for 2020, the aim is to reach EUR 15m in sales. The company also plans to open its first "cloud kitchen", which is a centralised kitchen aimed at digital restaurant orders and home deliveries.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
19 DEC 2019
Commissioned Research: Positive profit warning
After its positive profit warning yesterday, NoHo Partners now expects to post net sales for the Restaurant business (continued operations) of EUR 270m (previously EUR 260m) and an EBIT margin of 6.5% (previously above 6%), implying EBIT of EUR 17.6m. The guidance upgrade did not come as a big surprise, as we had expected a 6.7% EBIT margin from NoHo's Restaurant business. In addition, on Monday the company announced the acquisition of five restaurants in Norway, which we see as a positive sign. After the recent divestment of the labour hire business (Smile), we believe the company is less sensitive to economic fluctuations.

Analysts:

Equity analysts

Analyst
Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Aku Vikström

CFO: Jarno Suominen

Chairman: Timo Laine

Numbers
Nordea
EURm
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021E
2022E
Total revenues
130.1
185.9
323.2
272.8
202.5
291.5
326.5
Ebitda (adj.)
19.74
22.70
33.70
75.60
37.28
65.68
76.76
Ebitda - margin
15.2%
12.2%
10.4%
27.7%
18.4%
22.5%
23.5%
EBIT (adj.)
9.3
11.1
12.5
31.1
-11.0
22.5
32.3
EBIT (adj.) margin
7.2%
6.0%
3.9%
11.4%
-5.4%
7.7%
9.9%
PTP (adj.)
8.2
10.0
11.8
23.7
-19.0
14.3
24.1
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
6.20
7.50
10.45
22.23
-16.61
11.58
19.51
Shareholders´ Equity
43.3
44.9
67.1
129.3
88.1
99.3
117.8
Net interest bearing debt
30.7
43.8
138.0
267.6
303.1
292.0
279.5
Net gearing
69.8%
93.3%
182.0%
195.3%
321.0%
275.5%
222.7%
Net debt/EBITDA
1.6
2.0
4.9
3.6
9.1
4.4
3.6
Free cash flow to equity
3.6
-5.1
-58.4
23.9
13.7
42.1
44.5
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
16.6
16.6
18.9
19.0
19.2
19.2
19.2
Nordea Markets estimates published on Aug 12, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
EUR and %
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021E
2022E
EPS (adj.)
0.37
0.43
0.54
2.27
-0.79
0.58
0.96
EPS (adj.) growth
3.6%
16.1%
27.4%
318.9%
-134.8%
173.8%
65.5%
DPS
0.30
0.33
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.44
BVPS
2.6
2.7
3.6
6.8
4.6
5.2
6.1
P/E (adj.)
16.4
20.1
16.0
4.5
n.a.
9.1
5.5
EV/Sales
1.01
1.01
0.96
1.73
2.03
1.37
1.19
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
6.65
8.29
9.21
6.23
11.03
6.10
5.07
EV/EBIT (adj.)
14.06
17.00
24.87
15.56
n.a.
20.54
14.24
P/BV
2.31
3.17
2.44
1.51
1.15
1.02
0.86
Dividend yield
5.0%
3.9%
3.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.3%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
6.3%
4.7%
5.2%
9.9%
-5.3%
12.8%
14.3%
RoE
13.5%
11.5%
6.2%
45.6%
-19.1%
11.9%
17.1%
ROIC
9.8%
10.2%
6.0%
7.9%
-2.2%
4.6%
6.6%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Aug 12, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Refinitiv