Cibus

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Construction and Real Estate
SEK 6,494.57
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
CIBUS SS
CIBUS.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 113.45

Latest Reports

23 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Well positioned to defend its attractive dividend
Ahead of Cibus' Q4 2023 report, we leave our operational estimates largely unchanged, while we raise those for 2024-25 income from property management (IFPM) by 7-9%, to reflect lower interest rates and our refinancing assumptions. We include the recent EUR 50m bond issue, which was made at three-month Euribor plus 400bp. We do not think Cibus will carry out any meaningful acquisitions, although it has the capacity to return to M&A mode. Instead, we believe Cibus will prefer to buy back its bonds with maturities in 2024 and 2025. As yields in the grocery-anchored real estate segment have been stable in recent years, we see limited risk of significant yield expansion and asset value declines. Hence, we believe Cibus is not in a hurry to change its LTV target of 55-65%, but instead will try to remain close to the low end of the range. We see no imminent need for new equity. Larger acquisitions would need an equity component, and with shares trading at an EPRA NRV discount of over 20%, we find it unlikely that equity would be used to finance acquisitions currently. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

8 NOV 2023
Commissioned Research: Interest rate hedges starting to show in earnings
Cibus' Q3 2023 income from property management (IFPM) was 16% ahead of Infront consensus, adjusted for one-offs. The decline in earnings capacity-based IFPM per share came to an end; instead, there was a EUR 0.02 q/q improvement, to EUR 0.93. This was mainly caused by the decline in the cost of debt from 4.6% to 4.4%. We make limited changes to our IFPM estimates for 2024-25. We raise our fair value range slightly to SEK 120-150 (110-140) per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV and peer valuation. The share is trading at a ~20% discount to EPRA NRV, which corresponds to an implied yield of 6.8% versus the reported 6.2%. The EUR 0.9 dividend should be sustainable given the extensive hedging. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

7 NOV 2023
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Strong operations in Q3 and earnings capacity-based EPS turned to a positive trend
Cibus posted Q3 net operating income of EUR 31.0m, up 18% y/y but included as much as EUR 2.7m in one-offs. Adjusted for one-off NOI was in line with Infront consensus. Income from property management (IFPM) excluding one-offs was EUR 14.2m, down 3% y/y and 8% above our estimate, and 16% above consensus. Reported IFPM included EUR -0.1m of negative one-offs in financial items. Fair value changes were EUR -5.4m (0.3% of portfolio) as yields expanded slightly and average valuation yield was 6.2% (6.1% in Q2). Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share was up q/q at EUR 0.93 from EUR 0.91 owing to slightly lower financial expense. Net financial expenses in earnings capacity is EUR 51.1m versus EUR 52.1m in Q2. EPRA NRV was EUR 13.0 (SEK 150), flat from EUR 13.0 in Q2. Cibus is currently trading at a ~25% discount to EPRA NRV and an implied yield of 7.1% versus the average valuation yield of 6.2%. Cibus has effectively capped interest rates until H1 2025. We expect a clearly positive share price reaction as balance sheet measures are coming through, the earnings capacity-based EPS turned to a positive trend and should support the EUR 0.9 being sustainable and underlying business is performing as expected.

31 OCT 2023
Commissioned Research: Hedging in place, for now
Ahead of Cibus' Q3 2023 report, we trim our estimates to reflect changes in interest rates. We cut our income from property management (IFPM) and adjusted EPS estimates by 2-3% for 2023-25, due to higher net financials. We do not believe Cibus will carry out any meaningful M&A, as we argue that the company will focus on securing its balance sheet metrics for the foreseeable future. We also believe Cibus will strengthen its balance sheet, either through divestments or equity-like funding, as it likely needs to lower its net LTV from the current ~57%. As yields in the grocery-anchored real estate segment have been stable in recent years, we see limited risk of significant yield expansion and asset value declines. We keep our EPRA NRV-based fair value range of SEK 110-140 unchanged. Cibus is currently trading at a 33% EPRA NRV discount and an implied yield of ~7%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

19 JUL 2023
Commissioned Research: Increased hedging secures short-term earnings
Cibus' Q2 2023 income from property management (IFPM) was in line with our expectations but slightly below Infront consensus, even adjusted for the EUR -0.8m in one-offs. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share declined by 18% q/q, to EUR 0.91. This was mainly caused by an increase in the number of shares following the EUR 70m share issue, but also from the cost of debt rising from 4.3% to 4.6%. The company has purchased bonds in the market and increased its hedging significantly. We make limited changes to our IFPM estimates. Our fair value range is unchanged, at SEK 110-140 per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV and peer valuation. The share is trading at a ~30% discount to EPRA NRV, which corresponds to an implied yield of ~7% versus the reported 6.1%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

18 JUL 2023
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Operationally in line – hedging activity remains high
Cibus posted Q2 net operating income of EUR 28.1m, up 11% y/y on the back of acquisitions and in line with our and Infront consensus estimates. Income from property management (IFPM) was EUR 11.5m, down 15% y/y and 0% below our estimate, and 8% below consensus. Reported IFPM included EUR 0.8m of negative one-offs. Fair value changes were EUR -8.3m (~0.4% of portfolio) as yields expanded 5 bps and average valuation yield was 6.1% (6.1% in Q1). Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share was down q/q at EUR 0.91 from EUR 1.11 owing to increased financial expenses and increased share count. Net financial expenses in earnings capacity is EUR 52.1m versus EUR 49.9m in Q1. EPRA NRV was EUR 13.0 (SEK 153), down from EUR 14.4 in Q1, also mostly relating to increased number of shares. Cibus is currently trading at a ~30% discount to EPRA NRV and an implied yield of 7.0% versus the average valuation yield of 6.1%. Current hedges will cap interest rate of bank loans at 3.95% as of Q3 2023 through Q4 2024 and reach 4.05% in H1 2025. We expect a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction on the report.

5 JUL 2023
Commissioned Research: Active bond repurchases and increased hedging
Ahead of Cibus' Q2 report, we trim our estimates to reflect changes in interest rates, as well as taking into account its recent bond repurchases. We cut our income from property management (IFPM) estimates by 6-9% for 2023-25 and adjusted EPS by 7-10% due to higher net financials. We believe Cibus will focus on securing its balance sheet metrics and conduct limited, if any, M&A in the medium term. As yields in the grocery-anchored real estate segment have been stable in recent years, we see limited risk of significant yield expansion. We keep our EPRA NRV-based fair value range of SEK 110-140 unchanged. Cibus is currently trading at a 35% EPRA NRV discount and an implied yield of ~7%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

28 APR 2023
Commissioned Research: Reacting rapidly to rising interest expenses
Cibus's Q1 2023 income from property management (IFPM) was below Infront consensus, even adjusted for EUR -1.2m in one-offs. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share declined by 9% q/q, to EUR 1.05. This was mainly caused by an increase in the cost of debt, i.e. 4.3% in Q1 from 3.9% in Q4. We cut adjusted EPS by 9-12% for 2023E-25E due to higher interest costs. We also cut our dividend estimates to a flat level of EUR 0.9 in 2023-25, as we believe Cibus will need to reduce its net LTV from the current ~56% level. Our fair value range is SEK 110-140 (120-160) per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV and peer valuation. The share is trading at a ~33% discount to EPRA NRV, which corresponds to an implied yield of ~7% versus the reported 6.1%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

27 APR 2023
Commissioned Research: Commissioed Research - Flash Comment: Operationally fine Q1 but net financial costs
Cibus posted Q1 net operating income of EUR 27.6m, up 27% y/y on the back of acquisitions and 1% above our estimate and 2% above Infront consensus. Income from property management (IFPM) was EUR 11.8m, down 19% y/y and 14% below our estimate and 16% below consensus. However, IFPM included EUR 1.2m of negative one-offs. Adjusting for these, IFPM was 5% below our estimate and 7% below consensus. Fair value changes were EUR -8.5 (~0.4% of portfolio) as yields expanded slightly and average valuation yield was 6.1%. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share was down q/q at EUR 1.05 from EUR 1.16 owing to increased financial expenses. Net financial expenses in earnings capacity is EUR 49.9m versus EUR 44.3m in Q4. EPRA NRV was EUR 14.4 (SEK 163), down from EUR 14.7 in Q4. Cibus is currently trading at a 33% discount to EPRA NRV and an implied yield of 7.0% versus the average valuation yield of 6.1%. Current hedges will cap interest rate of bank loans at 4.55% as of Q3 2023 through Q2 2025. We expect a slightly negative share price reaction on weaker than expected IFPM.

21 APR 2023
Commissioned Research: Focus likely to be on defending balance sheet
Ahead of Cibus' Q1 report, we update our estimates (after our research restriction period ending) to reflect the directed share issue conducted on 23 March. We estimate that EPS dilution resulting from the share issue is ~10%. Cibus is currently trading at a 25% discount to EPRA NRV and an implied yield of ~6.8%. We believe Cibus will focus on securing its balance sheet metrics and conduct limited, if any, M&A in the medium term. As yields in the grocery-anchored real estate segment have been stable in recent years, we see limited risk for significant yield expansion. We lower our EPRA NRV-based fair value range to SEK 120-160 (140-180). Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

Equity analysts

Director
Associate Director

Key persons

CEO: Sverker Källgården

CFO: Pia-Lena Olofsson

Chairman: Patrick Gylling

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
EURm
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
2025E
Total revenues
60.2
74.4
93.8
124.0
139.1
140.1
143.9
NOI
48.6
61.4
76.3
99.6
114.8
116.0
119.5
NOI margin
80.8%
82.5%
81.4%
80.3%
82.5%
82.8%
83.1%
EBIT (adj.)
43.3
54.9
69.9
91.1
106.4
107.3
110.5
EBIT (adj.) margin
72.0%
73.8%
74.6%
73.4%
76.5%
76.6%
76.8%
PTP (adj.)
27.8
33.1
48.7
55.2
53.9
58.4
58.9
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
27.22
33.07
48.67
54.91
52.82
56.68
56.58
Shareholders´ Equity
332.9
458.0
583.3
697.8
745.7
759.3
772.5
Net interest bearing debt
516.6
785.5
875.9
1,100.7
1,016.0
1,010.6
1,004.5
Net gearing
155.2%
171.5%
150.2%
157.7%
136.2%
133.1%
130.0%
Net debt/EBITDA
11.9
14.3
12.5
12.1
9.5
9.4
9.1
Net operating cash flow
12.8
35.2
51.0
64.8
57.0
57.0
57.6
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
31.1
40.0
44.0
48.4
57.2
57.2
57.2
Nordea Markets estimates published on Feb 23, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
2025E
NAVPS
10.9
10.6
11.8
12.0
12.9
14.1
15.2
EPS (adj.)
0.88
0.92
1.18
1.12
0.92
0.94
0.94
DPS
0.89
0.94
0.99
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
BVPS
10.7
11.5
13.3
14.4
13.0
13.3
13.5
P/E (adj.)
15.9
18.1
24.0
11.5
11.0
10.7
10.8
P/NAV
1.3
1.6
2.4
1.1
0.8
0.7
0.7
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
21.90
26.43
30.38
18.94
15.01
14.84
14.35
EV/EBIT (adj.)
21.90
26.43
30.38
18.94
15.01
14.84
14.35
P/BV
1.30
1.45
2.14
0.89
0.78
0.77
0.75
P/CE
33.7
18.9
24.5
9.6
10.2
10.2
10.1
Dividend yield
6.4%
5.7%
3.5%
7.0%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
RoE
9.2%
8.7%
9.9%
12.5%
2.7%
8.6%
8.5%
ROIC
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.4%
4.7%
4.7%
4.9%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Feb 23, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics