Idogen

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Healthcare
SEK 72.98
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
IDOGEN SS
IDOGEN.TE
Share price (close):
SEK 1.51

Latest Reports

21 AUG 2019
Commissioned Research: Moving towards clinical trials
Idogen is progressing well in its efforts to bring its lead candidates, IDO 8 and IDO T, into clinical trials, which are expected to take place in H2 2020 and H1 2021, respectively. Underlying costs developed for the quarter were better than anticipated, and the company is on track to meet its target of having operations financed until Q3 2020. We change our EBIT estimates by 1-3% for 2019-20E and reiterate our DCF-based fair valuation range of SEK 0.4-3.0 per share.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
20 JUN 2019
Commissioned Research: A replacement for zebularine has been found
On 18 June, Idogen announced that the company has established a novel method for the preparation of its tolerogenic cell therapy. As such, the company is back on track after the setback earlier this year when a new evaluation model showed that the former basis for Idogen's technology, zebularine, does not produce the desired effect. With the new method in place, the company expects that it could enter clinical trials with IDO 8 and IDO T in H2 2020 and H1 2021, respectively. – Marketing material commissioned by Idogen

Analysts: Klas Pyk
1 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: More conservative R&D spending in Q1
Idogen posted a Q1 operating loss of SEK 6.8m compared with SEK 7.1m in the same quarter last year. At SEK ~10m, our estimate for operating expenses was higher than the reported SEK 7.6m. We attribute the deviation to the lower-than-anticipated external costs. The results were also positively impacted by a SEK ~0.85m payout from Horizon 2020, which we did not include in our model. Furthermore, late last week, Idogen announced that NextCell Pharma has approached Idogen's board regarding a potential merger of the two companies. We nudge up our 2019 estimates following the Q1 report. Marketing material commissioned by Idogen

Analysts: Klas Pyk
7 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Awaiting a replacement for zebularine
Idogen posted a Q4 report with an operating loss of SEK 4.8m, compared with SEK -7.3m in the same quarter last year. We estimated an operating loss of SEK 9.2m and attribute the deviation to the SEK ~3.8m Horizon 2020 payout in December (we had expected the payout to occur in 2019). The remaining EUR 1.4m is expected to be paid out in 2019-20. The most important recent news occurred after the end of the quarter, as the company announced on 22 January that it will extend and broaden its preclinical development due to recent results showing that zebularine does not yield the desired effect. The company is currently evaluating a number of alternatives to zebularine and expects its clinical trials to be delayed by six months compared with previous communications. – Marketing material commissioned by Idogen

Analysts: Klas Pyk
23 JAN 2019
Commissioned Research: Zebularine does not yield desired effect
Yesterday, Idogen announced that the company has completed an evaluation model showing that zebularine does not give the effect that has been indicated by previous preclinical studies. This means that zebularine, which to date has been the basis for the company's tolerogenic cell therapy, will no longer be part of Idogen's technology. Instead, Idogen will evaluate a number of alternative methods to replace this compound. The company expects to find a replacement shortly but says that the recent results will delay the start of the clinical studies for IDO 8 and IDO T.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
19 DEC 2018
Commissioned Research: Scalable technology opportunity in immunology
Idogen's patented, scalable cell therapy technology is the basis for its two lead projects targeting haemophilia A and kidney transplant rejection. Together, they represent an estimated annual market opportunity of SEK 4.4bn. Orphan drug designation and Horizon 2020 funding were granted and potential upfront payments from licensing deals could be valued at as much as 5x Idogen's current market cap. However, neither project is expected to enter clinical trials until 2020; these will last three to four years and the outcome is inherently uncertain. Marketing material commissioned by Idogen

Analysts:

Equity analysts

Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Lars Hedbys

CFO: Ingvar Karlsson

Chairman: Agneta Edberg

Numbers
Nordea
SEKm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
57.6
Ebitda (adj.)
-9.66
-12.58
-21.22
-26.87
-23.03
-28.71
34.18
Ebitda - margin
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
59.3%
EBIT (adj.)
-9.7
-12.6
-21.3
-27.9
-28.8
-31.5
31.2
EBIT (adj.) margin
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
54.2%
PTP (adj.)
-9.7
-12.6
-21.3
-27.9
-28.8
-31.5
31.2
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
-9.66
-12.60
-21.32
-27.88
-28.79
-31.53
37.42
Shareholders´ Equity
12.2
18.6
39.9
51.0
22.2
21.1
58.5
Net interest bearing debt
-11.5
-18.5
-36.9
-61.6
-34.7
-29.6
-49.3
Net gearing
-94.9%
-99.5%
-92.6%
-120.7%
-156.0%
-140.1%
-84.3%
Net debt/EBITDA
1.2
1.5
1.7
2.3
1.5
1.0
-1.4
Free cash flow to equity
-9.9
-12.1
-24.2
-14.1
-26.9
-35.5
19.8
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
7.3
12.2
24.2
57.0
48.5
68.5
68.5
Nordea Markets estimates published on Aug 21, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
SEK and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
EPS (adj.)
-1.32
-1.03
-0.88
-0.49
-0.59
-0.54
0.49
EPS (adj.) growth
89.1%
21.8%
14.7%
44.6%
-21.5%
9.2%
190.1%
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
BVPS
1.7
1.5
1.6
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.9
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
3.1
EV/Sales
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0.93
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1.57
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1.72
P/BV
3.62
7.47
2.74
1.54
3.28
4.88
1.76
Dividend yield
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
FCF yield
-22.4%
-8.7%
-22.1%
-18.0%
-36.9%
-34.4%
19.2%
RoE
n.a.
-81.9%
-72.9%
-61.3%
-78.6%
n.a.
94.0%
ROIC
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Nordea Markets estimates published on Aug 21, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters