Ilkka Yhtyma

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Media
EUR 88.57
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
ILK2S FH
ILK2S.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 3.48

Latest Reports

6 AUG 2019
Commissioned Research: Big steps still not visible
Ilkka-Yhtymä sold a 16.4% stake of Alma Media in November 2018 and received EUR ~100m in consideration (it now holds a 10.9% stake). According to its strategy, the company aims to develop its existing operations and expand outside the media business. M&A activity and the dividend policy will remain two key drivers going forward. Q2 sales were 2% above our expectations, with a higher-than-anticipated cost structure. We make only minor estimate changes and maintain our EUR 0.20 dividend per share estimate for 2019-21. Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka Ilkka-Yhtymä.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
7 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: Waiting for big news
Ilkka-Yhtymä sold a 16.4% stake of Alma Media in November 2018 and received EUR ~100m in consideration (it now holds a 10.9% stake). According to its strategy, the company aims to develop its existing operations and expand outside the media business. M&A activity and the dividend policy will remain as two key drivers going forward. Q1 sales were well in line with our expectations, and the company beat our EBIT expectations with a lower-than-anticipated cost structure. We make only minor estimate changes and keep our EUR 0.20 dividend per share expectation intact for 2019E-21E. Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka-Yhtyma.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
19 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Remunerating with a higher dividend
Ilkka-Yhtymä's net sales were in line with our estimates but adjusted EBIT declined more than we anticipated. Company Q4 net sales were down 4% due to the declining advertising market, although the company mitigated 3% of the drop with cost cuts. Ilkka-Yhtymä sold 13.5 million Alma Media shares in November and subsequently announced a EUR 0.40 dividend per share proposal for the year, to be paid in two instalments. Due to a softer market outlook, we make small adjustments to our estimates for 2019-20. Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka-Yhtyma

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
20 NOV 2018
Commissioned Research: Sale for diversification and financial headroom
Ilkka-Yhtymä announced on Friday that it has cut its ownership in Alma Media from 27.3% down to 10.9%. The transaction completed at a price of EUR 7.44 per Alma Media share (~19% premium to previous close), and Ilkka-Yhtymä will report approximately a EUR 44m capital gain in Q4 2018 (stake book value was EUR ~67m at the end of Q3 2018). Ilkka-Yhtymä is in the middle of a new strategy implementation introduced in the Q3 report. About 90% of Ilkka-Yhtymä's net income came from the Alma Media holding in 2017. Even though Ilkka-Yhtymä will no longer consolidate Alma Media's net income to its EBIT – it will book Alma Media's dividends as financial income instead – there will be no change to cash flows.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
6 NOV 2018
Commissioned Research: Own operations above expectations in Q3
Ilkka-Yhtymä's EBIT from own operations was well above our estimates in Q3 due to strong sales and a faster-than-anticipated impact from the cost-savings programme. Company net sales were flat against a declining market, with increased sales in the printing segment and slightly declining sales in the publishing segment. We raise our 2019 EBIT estimates by 1% due to stronger-than-anticipated performance by own operations in Q3.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
4 OCT 2018
Commissioned Research: Regional media company with an online jewel
Ilkka-Yhtymä is regional media company, mainly operating in western Finland. We find the company's own operations, which consist of publishing and printing, to have negative fundamentals; the top line is in structural decline and self-help appears only to offset this, at best. The main allure for an investment in Ilkka-Yhtymä is its large shareholding in Alma Media, one of the leading Finnish media companies, with valuable international digital assets. We expect Ilkka-Yhtymä's FCF to grow at a CAGR of almost 30% in 2017-20. Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka-Yhtymä.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies

Equity analysts

Senior Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Olli Pirhonen

CFO: Seija Peitso

Chairman: Timo Aukia

Numbers
Nordea
EURm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
41.2
39.7
37.6
36.5
35.1
33.7
32.8
Ebitda (adj.)
12.73
9.21
11.55
3.23
3.17
3.23
3.06
Ebitda - margin
30.9%
23.2%
30.7%
8.8%
9.0%
9.6%
9.3%
EBIT (adj.)
11.1
7.8
9.9
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.8
EBIT (adj.) margin
26.9%
19.5%
26.4%
4.5%
4.6%
5.2%
5.4%
PTP (adj.)
6.6
6.5
9.9
0.4
3.8
4.4
4.6
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
5.69
6.21
9.73
0.09
3.74
4.26
4.49
Shareholders´ Equity
66.0
69.7
76.4
121.3
114.8
114.0
113.4
Net interest bearing debt
42.8
41.3
40.5
-98.9
-93.1
-92.7
-92.1
Net gearing
64.8%
59.3%
53.1%
-81.6%
-81.1%
-81.3%
-81.2%
Net debt/EBITDA
4.0
4.5
3.5
-19.3
-29.4
-28.7
-30.0
Free cash flow to equity
8.2
4.0
3.9
93.2
4.4
4.6
4.5
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
25.7
25.7
25.5
25.5
25.5
25.5
25.5
Nordea Markets estimates published on Aug 6, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
EUR and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
EPS (adj.)
0.22
0.24
0.38
2.09
0.15
0.17
0.18
EPS (adj.) growth
-37.3%
9.2%
57.5%
449.7%
-93.0%
13.8%
5.4%
DPS
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.40
0.20
0.20
0.20
BVPS
2.6
2.7
3.0
4.8
4.5
4.5
4.5
P/E (adj.)
9.2
11.2
8.8
1.7
23.7
20.8
19.7
EV/Sales
0.67
-0.24
-0.96
-1.85
-1.77
-1.83
-1.86
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
2.16
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
EV/EBIT (adj.)
3.40
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
P/BV
0.79
1.00
1.11
0.73
0.77
0.78
0.78
Dividend yield
4.9%
4.4%
4.2%
11.4%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
FCF yield
15.8%
5.7%
4.6%
104.6%
5.0%
5.2%
5.1%
RoE
5.5%
9.1%
13.3%
55.8%
3.2%
3.7%
3.9%
ROIC
7.8%
5.5%
6.8%
1.3%
1.7%
1.9%
1.9%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Aug 6, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters