Ilkka Yhtyma

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Media
EUR 79.15
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
ILK2S FH
ILK2S.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 3.11

Latest Reports

5 MAY 2020
Commissioned Research: Advertising revenue is hard to compensate for
Ilkka-Yhtymä Q1 results were on the soft side, partly driven by one-offs related to the acquisition of Liana Technologies and a combination of its two regional newspapers. Although circulation sales are holding up well in these turbulent times, declining advertising sales will burden profitability. Despite newly announced guidance, the outlook for 2020 remains blurry, and a lot depends on when advertising revenues start to recover. We see the digital arm of Ilkka-Yhtymä, Liana Technologies, as the key growth driver, while a strong balance sheet could open up further M&A action. - Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka Yhtyma.

24 MAR 2020
Commissioned Research: Regional media is not immune to COVID-19
Owing to the COVID-19 situation, Ilkka-Yhtymä yesterday released a profit warning and withdrew its previous guidance for increasing net sales and adjusted operating profit from the group's own operations. Ilkka-Yhtymä took its first step outside the traditional media industry with the acquisition of a majority stake in Liana Technologies in January. The company's growth outlook has improved significantly, although it remains highly exposed to the advertising market. In addition to M&A activity and its dividend policy, the development of the digital arm will be the key driver of the share, in our view.

18 FEB 2020
Commissioned Research: Entering the year of transformation
Ilkka-Yhtymä sold a 16.4% stake in Alma Media in November 2018 and received EUR ~100m in consideration (it now holds a 10.9% stake). In January, it acquired a majority stake (67%) in Liana Technologies, which is also the company's first real step outside the traditional media industry, in line with its strategy. In the short term, we anticipate margin pressure from the acquisition, as Ilkka-Yhtymä will most likely prioritise growth in order to reach scale benefits. The company's growth outlook has improved substantially since the acquisition and, in addition to M&A activity and dividend policy, the development of the digital arm will be the key driver of the share going forward, in our view. Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka-Yhtymä

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
15 JAN 2020
Commissioned Research: Finally putting money into action
Ilkka-Yhtymä acquired a majority stake (67%) in Liana Technologies on 8 January and yesterday shed more light on the acquisition, which changes the company's growth profile. This is Ilkka-Yhtymä's first major acquisition since it sold a 16.4% stake in Alma Media in November for a EUR ~100m consideration. The acquisition is also the company's first real step outside the traditional media industry, in line with its strategy. We believe the acquisition will be margin-dilutive at least in the short to mid term, as we expect the company to prioritise growth in order to reach scale benefits. Despite the acquisition, we expect Ilkka-Yhtymä to continue with EUR 0.20 dividend for 2019-21, implying a dividend yield of 5.3%.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
5 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: Tough market environment continues
Ilkka-Yhtymä sold a 16.4% stake of Alma Media in November 2018 and received EUR ~100m in consideration (it now holds a 10.9% stake). According to its strategy, the company aims to develop its existing operations and expand outside the media business. In Q3, Ilkka-Yhtymä made one small bolt-on acquisition and started new cost efficiency measures to support profitability as the print media market continues to decline. M&A activity and the dividend policy will remain as two key drivers going forward. We lift our adjusted EBIT estimates for 2020-21 by 13% (EUR 0.2m) due to higher EBIT contribution from the associated companies. Marketing material commisssioned by Ilkka-Yhtymä.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
6 AUG 2019
Commissioned Research: Big steps still not visible
Ilkka-Yhtymä sold a 16.4% stake of Alma Media in November 2018 and received EUR ~100m in consideration (it now holds a 10.9% stake). According to its strategy, the company aims to develop its existing operations and expand outside the media business. M&A activity and the dividend policy will remain two key drivers going forward. Q2 sales were 2% above our expectations, with a higher-than-anticipated cost structure. We make only minor estimate changes and maintain our EUR 0.20 dividend per share estimate for 2019-21. Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka Ilkka-Yhtymä.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
7 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: Waiting for big news
Ilkka-Yhtymä sold a 16.4% stake of Alma Media in November 2018 and received EUR ~100m in consideration (it now holds a 10.9% stake). According to its strategy, the company aims to develop its existing operations and expand outside the media business. M&A activity and the dividend policy will remain as two key drivers going forward. Q1 sales were well in line with our expectations, and the company beat our EBIT expectations with a lower-than-anticipated cost structure. We make only minor estimate changes and keep our EUR 0.20 dividend per share expectation intact for 2019E-21E. Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka-Yhtyma.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
19 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Remunerating with a higher dividend
Ilkka-Yhtymä's net sales were in line with our estimates but adjusted EBIT declined more than we anticipated. Company Q4 net sales were down 4% due to the declining advertising market, although the company mitigated 3% of the drop with cost cuts. Ilkka-Yhtymä sold 13.5 million Alma Media shares in November and subsequently announced a EUR 0.40 dividend per share proposal for the year, to be paid in two instalments. Due to a softer market outlook, we make small adjustments to our estimates for 2019-20. Marketing material commissioned by Ilkka-Yhtyma

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
20 NOV 2018
Commissioned Research: Sale for diversification and financial headroom
Ilkka-Yhtymä announced on Friday that it has cut its ownership in Alma Media from 27.3% down to 10.9%. The transaction completed at a price of EUR 7.44 per Alma Media share (~19% premium to previous close), and Ilkka-Yhtymä will report approximately a EUR 44m capital gain in Q4 2018 (stake book value was EUR ~67m at the end of Q3 2018). Ilkka-Yhtymä is in the middle of a new strategy implementation introduced in the Q3 report. About 90% of Ilkka-Yhtymä's net income came from the Alma Media holding in 2017. Even though Ilkka-Yhtymä will no longer consolidate Alma Media's net income to its EBIT – it will book Alma Media's dividends as financial income instead – there will be no change to cash flows.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies
6 NOV 2018
Commissioned Research: Own operations above expectations in Q3
Ilkka-Yhtymä's EBIT from own operations was well above our estimates in Q3 due to strong sales and a faster-than-anticipated impact from the cost-savings programme. Company net sales were flat against a declining market, with increased sales in the printing segment and slightly declining sales in the publishing segment. We raise our 2019 EBIT estimates by 1% due to stronger-than-anticipated performance by own operations in Q3.

Analysts: Sami Sarkamies

Equity analysts

Senior Analyst
Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Olli Pirhonen

CFO: Seija Peitso

Chairman: Timo Aukia

Numbers
Nordea
EURm
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021E
2022E
Total revenues
39.7
37.6
36.5
36.4
42.8
44.2
46.2
Ebitda (adj.)
9.21
11.55
3.23
3.50
1.65
2.82
3.38
Ebitda - margin
23.2%
30.7%
8.8%
9.6%
3.9%
6.4%
7.3%
EBIT (adj.)
7.8
9.9
1.6
1.9
-0.7
0.7
1.3
EBIT (adj.) margin
19.5%
26.4%
4.5%
5.1%
-1.5%
1.5%
2.8%
PTP (adj.)
6.5
9.9
0.4
3.9
0.3
4.3
5.1
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
6.21
9.73
0.09
3.77
1.03
4.22
4.96
Shareholders´ Equity
69.7
76.4
121.3
136.7
132.6
131.8
131.6
Net interest bearing debt
41.3
40.5
-98.9
-120.1
-101.9
-101.5
-101.7
Net gearing
59.3%
53.1%
-81.6%
-87.9%
-76.8%
-77.0%
-77.3%
Net debt/EBITDA
4.5
3.5
-19.3
-46.3
n.a.
-36.0
-30.1
Free cash flow to equity
4.0
3.9
93.2
0.6
-13.3
4.7
5.3
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
25.7
25.5
25.5
25.5
25.5
25.5
25.5
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 5, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
EUR and %
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021E
2022E
EPS (adj.)
0.24
0.38
2.09
0.15
0.04
0.17
0.19
EPS (adj.) growth
9.2%
57.5%
449.7%
-92.9%
-72.7%
310.2%
17.4%
DPS
0.12
0.14
0.40
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
BVPS
2.7
3.0
4.8
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
P/E (adj.)
11.2
8.8
1.7
23.6
76.9
18.7
16.0
EV/Sales
-0.24
-0.96
-0.32
-0.93
-0.59
-0.56
-0.54
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
23.20
n.a.
n.a.
P/BV
1.00
1.11
0.73
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.60
Dividend yield
4.4%
4.2%
11.4%
5.7%
6.4%
6.4%
6.4%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
1.7%
4.5%
8.7%
1.5%
2.1%
6.0%
6.7%
RoE
9.1%
13.3%
55.8%
2.9%
0.8%
3.2%
3.8%
ROIC
5.5%
6.8%
1.3%
1.8%
-0.5%
0.5%
1.0%
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 5, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Refinitiv