Cibus

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Construction and Real Estate
SEK 5,187.48
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
CIBUS SS
CIBUS.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 139.00

Latest Reports

18 MAY 2020
Commissioned Research: Sustainable, growing and stable dividend profile
Cibus's Q1 profit from property management was largely in line with our expectations, with the acquired Coop portfolio contributing only partially because the acquisition closed on 10 March. Cibus has experienced few disturbances related to COVID-19, as its grocery- and daily-goods-anchored tenants are performing well in the current environment. The infrastructure-like assets that generate Cibus's rental income deserve a premium valuation versus most other real estate segments, which have been negatively impacted by the pandemic. We keep our fair value range unchanged at SEK 125-145 per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV, peer valuations, and DCF. Cibus intends to grow its dividend 5% annually and will soon start distributing dividends on a monthly basis. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

11 MAY 2020
Commissioned Research: Add-on acquisitions in Finland and Sweden next
Cibus will report its Q1 result on 15 May and we expect net operating income to increase slightly both y/y and q/q to EUR 12.4m. The acquisition of the SEK 1.9bn Coop portfolio was taken into possession on 10 March, so the contribution to numbers is marginal in Q1. We expect profit from property management to improve to EUR 7.8m. Cibus currently trades largely in line with its EPRA NAV, ie at a clear premium to the Nordic sector. We argue that Cibus deserves a premium valuation as its assets, daily goods and grocery retail assets are more infrastructure-like than commercial real estate such as offices and shopping centres. Owing to the Nordic property sector's downward revaluation, we adjust our peer- and DCF-based fair value range to SEK 125-145 (150-170), which corresponds to a 2021E dividend yield of 7.3-8.5%. - Marketing material commissioned by Cibus

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
6 MAR 2020
Commissioned Research: Expansion into Sweden on favourable terms
Cibus is entering the Swedish market, as we expected, by acquiring a portfolio from Coop consisting of 111 supermarkets in the south of Sweden. The price tag is EUR 180m (SEK 1.9bn), which is largely what we expected, and the portfolio generates net rental income of EUR 10.6m annually, somewhat higher than we anticipated. The acquisition net yield is 5.9%, which looks attractive to us, as the lease maturity is ten years. Financed using a combination of newly issued equity and new debt, we estimate the deal will cause LTV to decline slightly, while profit from property management per share will increase by 4%, with further upside potential from add-on acquisitions. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
28 FEB 2020
Commissioned Research: Expansion next on the agenda
Adjusting for one-offs, Cibus's Q4 results were largely in line with our expectations. Earnings capacity continues to grow and we expect the upcoming refinancing of the EUR 135m bond in 2020 will boost earnings further. The grocery and daily-goods-anchored retail assets that Cibus possesses establish a good base for continued dividend growth with an optimal use of leverage. The next growth phase for Cibus will be expansion into Sweden, we believe, and we would not be surprised if a sizeable acquisition was announced soon, partly financed by new equity.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
24 FEB 2020
Commissioned Research: Valuation supported by high dividend yield
Cibus will report Q4 results on 27 February and we expect net operating income to increase slightly from Q3. Our NOI estimate for Q4 is EUR 12.9m and profit from property management EUR 7.9m. Cibus shares have performed well as the revaluation of the Nordic property sector has reached new levels and we increase our peer- and DCF-based fair value range to SEK 150-170 (125-145). We believe Cibus is close to entering the Swedish market and a larger acquisition would require an equity component, which should not be an issue as Cibus trades at a 30% premium to the latest reported EPRA NAV and raising new equity at a premium to EPRA NAV is favourable.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
18 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: No surprises in steady Q3
Q3 included no major surprises apart from the occupancy rate remaining somewhat low at 94.5% (96.0% at the end of 2018) owing to one larger vacancy that Cibus expects to fill during Q4. Cibus continues to build its own organisation both in Finland and Sweden as most of the operations have been outsourced previously. We believe the next big step for Cibus is to establish itself in the Swedish market, possibly through larger acquisitions. We believe Cibus will continue growing in Finland through smaller bolt-on, off-market acquisitions. Our fair value for Cibus remains at SEK 125-145 per share, which implies a 2020E dividend yield of 6.8-7.4%. - Marketing material commissioned by Cibus

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
13 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: Dividend case intact, awaiting next growth phase
When Cibus reports its Q3 on 15 November, there are a couple of one-off items that might affect the results negatively. We expect earnings capacity to remain stable and the current low interest rate environment should create a positive risk of fair value changes in H2. The target of growing the dividend 5% annually is safe; we estimate a 2020 dividend yield of 7%. In our view, the premium to EPRA NAV is justified. Our fair value range for Cibus remains at SEK 125-145 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
2 SEP 2019
Commissioned Research: Soon ready for expansion outside Finland
Cibus has executed ahead of schedule on its expansion strategy in Finland with EUR 45m of investments made in H1 compared with its annual target of EUR 50m. While likely continuing its expansion in Finland with available funds, we believe Cibus will soon be ready for expansion into Sweden. As a larger acquisition in Sweden would likely require partly new equity, the fact that Cibus's shares are trading at a premium to EPRA NAV enables the raising of new equity at terms which are favourable for existing shareholders. Supported by the low interest environment, rising peer valuations and infrastructure-like assets we raise our fair value range for Cibus by SEK 10 to SEK 125-145 per share, which implies a 2020E dividend yield of 6.8-7.9%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
16 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: Highly predictable dividend potential
Cibus's Q1 was very much in line with our estimates, leaving the dividend potential intact. We expect Cibus to continue to acquire daily-goods properties in Finland, backed by the upcoming renegotiation of its last (out of three) senior credit facility. We believe that an expansion into Sweden is still on the cards, albeit not imminent. Looking ahead, the next positive news in 2019-20 could be the refinancing round and Finnish expansion. We expect financing costs to decline further in 2020 as the EUR 135m bond is refinanced significantly below the current 4.5%. We argue that Cibus, which is on track for a 2019E dividend yield of 7.9%, is well-positioned to increase its dividend by 5% annually while simultaneously investing EUR 50m per year in new daily-goods properties. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
26 APR 2019
Commissioned Research: Dividend case with infra-like qualities
Cibus's Q1 report, which will be published on 15 May, is likely to be undramatic and the main focus for 2019 should be on further acquisitions, mainly in Finland, and on a continued reduction of cost of debt via loan refinancing and bond refinancing in 2020. The dividend yield is close to 8% and Cibus aims to grow the dividend 5% annually. We argue that grocery and daily goods properties have qualities of infrastructure assets more than traditional commercial properties, as lease terms are basically fixed with CPI indexation. We calculate a fair value of SEK 115-135 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus

Analysts: Svante Krokfors

Equity analysts

Analyst
Senior Analyst, Sector Coordinator

Key persons

CEO: Sverker Källgården

CFO: Pia-Lena Olofsson

Chairman: Patrick Gylling

Numbers
Nordea
EURm
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021E
2022E
Total revenues
n.a.
n.a.
28.9
60.2
72.0
73.6
74.9
NOI
0.0
0.0
23.4
48.6
60.1
61.3
62.7
NOI margin
n.a.
n.a.
81.0%
80.8%
83.4%
83.4%
83.6%
EBIT (adj.)
0.0
0.0
21.1
43.3
55.5
57.5
58.7
EBIT (adj.) margin
n.a.
n.a.
72.8%
72.0%
77.1%
78.1%
78.4%
PTP (adj.)
0.0
0.0
13.2
27.8
38.0
41.6
42.9
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
0.00
0.00
12.36
27.22
36.06
39.13
39.90
Shareholders´ Equity
0.0
0.0
328.7
332.9
427.4
438.7
450.1
Net interest bearing debt
0.0
0.0
460.6
516.6
602.2
595.5
590.8
Net gearing
n.a.
n.a.
140.1%
155.2%
140.9%
135.7%
131.3%
Net debt/EBITDA
n.a.
n.a.
21.9
11.9
10.8
10.4
10.1
Net operating cash flow
0.0
0.0
16.1
12.8
37.6
39.6
40.3
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
0.0
0.0
31.1
31.1
37.3
37.3
37.3
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 18, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
EUR and %
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021E
2022E
NAVPS
0.0
0.0
10.7
11.1
12.6
13.8
10.2
EPS (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
0.40
0.88
0.97
1.05
1.07
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.84
0.89
0.88
0.95
1.02
BVPS
n.a.
n.a.
10.6
10.7
11.5
11.8
12.1
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
25.4
15.9
14.0
12.9
12.6
P/NAV
n.a.
n.a.
0.9
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
36.79
21.90
19.90
19.12
18.62
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
36.79
21.90
19.90
19.12
18.62
P/BV
n.a.
n.a.
0.96
1.30
1.18
1.15
1.12
P/CE
n.a.
n.a.
19.4
33.7
13.4
12.7
12.5
Dividend yield
n.a.
n.a.
8.3%
6.4%
6.5%
7.1%
7.5%
RoE
n.a.
n.a.
8.4%
9.2%
10.2%
10.2%
10.6%
ROIC
n.a.
n.a.
4.2%
4.2%
4.7%
4.4%
4.5%
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 18, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Refinitiv