Cibus

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Construction and Real Estate
SEK 4,820.50
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
CIBUS SS
CIBUS.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 155.00

Latest Reports

18 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: No surprises in steady Q3
Q3 included no major surprises apart from the occupancy rate remaining somewhat low at 94.5% (96.0% at the end of 2018) owing to one larger vacancy that Cibus expects to fill during Q4. Cibus continues to build its own organisation both in Finland and Sweden as most of the operations have been outsourced previously. We believe the next big step for Cibus is to establish itself in the Swedish market, possibly through larger acquisitions. We believe Cibus will continue growing in Finland through smaller bolt-on, off-market acquisitions. Our fair value for Cibus remains at SEK 125-145 per share, which implies a 2020E dividend yield of 6.8-7.4%. - Marketing material commissioned by Cibus

13 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: Dividend case intact, awaiting next growth phase
When Cibus reports its Q3 on 15 November, there are a couple of one-off items that might affect the results negatively. We expect earnings capacity to remain stable and the current low interest rate environment should create a positive risk of fair value changes in H2. The target of growing the dividend 5% annually is safe; we estimate a 2020 dividend yield of 7%. In our view, the premium to EPRA NAV is justified. Our fair value range for Cibus remains at SEK 125-145 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

2 SEP 2019
Commissioned Research: Soon ready for expansion outside Finland
Cibus has executed ahead of schedule on its expansion strategy in Finland with EUR 45m of investments made in H1 compared with its annual target of EUR 50m. While likely continuing its expansion in Finland with available funds, we believe Cibus will soon be ready for expansion into Sweden. As a larger acquisition in Sweden would likely require partly new equity, the fact that Cibus's shares are trading at a premium to EPRA NAV enables the raising of new equity at terms which are favourable for existing shareholders. Supported by the low interest environment, rising peer valuations and infrastructure-like assets we raise our fair value range for Cibus by SEK 10 to SEK 125-145 per share, which implies a 2020E dividend yield of 6.8-7.9%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

16 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: Highly predictable dividend potential
Cibus's Q1 was very much in line with our estimates, leaving the dividend potential intact. We expect Cibus to continue to acquire daily-goods properties in Finland, backed by the upcoming renegotiation of its last (out of three) senior credit facility. We believe that an expansion into Sweden is still on the cards, albeit not imminent. Looking ahead, the next positive news in 2019-20 could be the refinancing round and Finnish expansion. We expect financing costs to decline further in 2020 as the EUR 135m bond is refinanced significantly below the current 4.5%. We argue that Cibus, which is on track for a 2019E dividend yield of 7.9%, is well-positioned to increase its dividend by 5% annually while simultaneously investing EUR 50m per year in new daily-goods properties. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

26 APR 2019
Commissioned Research: Dividend case with infra-like qualities
Cibus's Q1 report, which will be published on 15 May, is likely to be undramatic and the main focus for 2019 should be on further acquisitions, mainly in Finland, and on a continued reduction of cost of debt via loan refinancing and bond refinancing in 2020. The dividend yield is close to 8% and Cibus aims to grow the dividend 5% annually. We argue that grocery and daily goods properties have qualities of infrastructure assets more than traditional commercial properties, as lease terms are basically fixed with CPI indexation. We calculate a fair value of SEK 115-135 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus

27 MAR 2019
Commissioned Research: Acquisitions boost dividend potential
We expect the acquisitions of six newly built properties worth EUR 30m during March to increase adjusted EPS (FFO per share) by 3% on a full-year basis and support the targeted 5% annual dividend growth target. The recent acquisitions were financed by newly renegotiated bank loans. Since the IPO a year ago, Cibus has been able to attain more favourable financing terms for its debt. We expect financing costs to come down further when the company renegotiates the last of its three senior bank loans and especially after the EUR 135m bond is refinanced, probably during 2020. The company is a strong dividend payer, with a 7.8% yield, and we consider its assets less risky than other commercial real estate assets owing to their infrastructure-like characteristics. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus

4 MAR 2019
Commissioned Research: Optimally structured for the dividend-hungry
Cibus is one of the leading Nordic players focusing on grocery and daily goods properties. Its asset base is currently in Finland, but it plans to expand to the other Nordic countries. Stable cash flow from reliable tenants, optimal use of leverage and a high payout ratio are helping the company to maintain a sustainable dividend yield of over 8%. Cibus should be able to improve its dividend capacity by continuing to lower the cost of debt while maintaining LTV at 55-60%. We argue that grocery and daily goods assets have a closer resemblance to infrastructure than traditional commercial retail real estate. E-commerce should be less of a threat for grocery and daily goods in the Nordics, where the market is dominated by few players and population density is low. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus

Equity analysts

Analyst
Senior Analyst, Sector Coordinator

Key persons

CEO: Sverker Källgården

CFO: Pia-Lena Olofsson

Chairman: Patrick Gylling

Numbers
Nordea
EURm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
28.9
60.1
61.6
63.4
NOI
0.0
0.0
0.0
23.4
49.0
50.1
51.8
NOI margin
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
81.0%
81.5%
81.3%
81.8%
EBIT (adj.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
21.1
44.4
46.4
48.1
EBIT (adj.) margin
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
72.8%
74.0%
75.3%
75.9%
PTP (adj.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.2
29.6
32.8
36.4
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.36
27.56
30.87
33.89
Shareholders´ Equity
0.0
0.0
0.0
328.7
345.9
355.9
371.6
Net interest bearing debt
0.0
0.0
0.0
460.6
515.5
511.8
506.5
Net gearing
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
140.1%
149.0%
143.8%
136.3%
Net debt/EBITDA
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
21.9
11.6
11.0
10.5
Net operating cash flow
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.1
13.0
31.0
34.0
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
0.0
0.0
0.0
31.1
31.1
31.1
31.1
Nordea Markets estimates published on Nov 18, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
EUR and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
NAVPS
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.9
12.4
13.6
15.1
EPS (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0.40
0.89
0.99
1.09
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.96
BVPS
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
10.6
11.1
11.4
11.9
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
25.4
16.6
14.8
13.5
P/NAV
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.0
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
36.79
21.92
20.90
20.07
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
36.79
21.92
20.90
20.07
P/BV
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0.96
1.32
1.29
1.23
P/CE
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
19.4
35.2
14.8
13.5
Dividend yield
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
8.3%
6.0%
6.3%
6.5%
RoE
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
8.4%
12.9%
10.6%
12.2%
ROIC
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.3%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Nov 18, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters