Cibus

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Construction and Real Estate
SEK 8,848.00
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
CIBUS SS
CIBUS.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 221.20

Latest Reports

19 AUG 2021
Commissioned Research: Q2 results as expected, M&A set to continue
Cibus's Q2 income from property management (IFPM) was slightly better than Infront consensus but somewhat below our estimates, adjusting for negative one-offs. Earnings-capacity-based IFPM per share rose from EUR 1.15 to EUR 1.18 on acquisitions conducted in Q2. We estimate the EUR 72m acquisition from Sagax will close in Q4 and will boost IFPM per share to EUR 1.23. We expect Cibus to continue making add-on acquisitions in Finland and Sweden – and it could enter Norway or Denmark shortly. The company aims to acquire assets totalling EUR 50-100m annually; so far Cibus has spent EUR 132m on acquisitions in 2021. We keep our fair value range at SEK 210-250 per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV, peer valuations, and DCF. Cibus intends to grow its dividend by 5% annually and it was the first Nordic company to distribute dividends on a monthly basis. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

18 AUG 2021
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Stable operations in Q2 and the company targets expansion to other Nordic countries
Cibus posted Q2 net operating income of EUR 18.5m, up 22% y/y on the back of acquisitions and in line with our and Infront consensus estimates. Income from property management (IFPM) was EUR 10.8m, up 39% y/y and 9% below our estimate and 6% below consensus. However, IFPM included EUR 0.83m in negative one-offs and adjusting for this, IFPM was slightly better than consensus and somewhat below our estimate. The one-offs relate to costs for list change and negative FX in financials. EPS of EUR 0.29 was slightly better than our and consensus estimate of EUR 0.28. Fair value changes were EUR +2.4m. ERPA EPS was EUR 12.3 (SEK 125) and net LTV was 60.1%. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share increased to EUR 1.18 from EUR 1.15 at the end of Q1 as a result of acquisitions made during Q2. The company sees a number of acquisition targets, and considers expanding outside of Finland and Sweden into other Nordic countries once COVID-19-related restrictions end. Cibus is currently trading at a 75% premium to EPRA NAV, which we find justified given the stable operations and strong dividend focus. Cibus has an edge to its mainly unlisted peers in that it can pay with its own shares, which makes Cibus an attractive compounder case in Nordic real estate, justifying the premium valuation. The dividend yield for 2021E-23E is 4.6-5.2% and Cibus distributes a monthly dividend. We expect a slightly positive share price reaction on the Q2 report which, was largely in line with expectations adjusting for one-offs, and the fact that the share was down 8% yesterday apparently on a recommendation downgrade.

16 AUG 2021
Commissioned Research: A real estate compounder with a dividend focus
Cibus will report its Q2 results on 18 August. We expect net operating income (NOI) of EUR 18.6m, up 2% q/q and 23% y/y, owing to acquisitions conducted during the past year. We expect income from property management (IFPM) of EUR 11.9m, up 3% q/q and 53% y/y. We are largely in line with Infront consensus on the Q2 numbers. Cibus is currently trading at an 88% premium on Q1 2021 EPRA NRV. Cibus has become an attractive real estate compounder within Nordic real estate. We raise our fair value range to SEK 210-250 (190-210), based on a combination of P/EPRA NRV, peer group, and DCF valuations. The increase is partly driven by a revaluation of Cibus's compounder peers, which corresponds to a 2022E dividend yield of 4.2-5.1% and a 2022E adjusted P/E range of 17.7-21.1x. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

22 JUN 2021
Commissioned Research: Stepping up the pace of acquisitions
After making no acquisitions in Q1, Cibus stepped up its M&A activity in Q2, announcing seven acquisitions worth in total EUR 128m, comprising 89 grocery and daily goods stores, with a lettable area of 82,200 m2. Trading at a ~65% EPRA NAV premium and an implied yield of ~4.4%, Cibus is taking advantage of its compounder opportunities in the grocery-anchored property market. The recent acquisitions enhances Cibus's dividend capacity, enabling it to grow its annual dividend by 5%. Cibus also announced its first hybrid bond; EUR 30m in size with an interest rate of 3-month EURIBOR plus 475 basis points. We raise our fair value range to SEK 190-210 (160-180) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

14 MAY 2021
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Stepping up acquisition pace with EUR 25.5m acquisition of three properties
Cibus has today (14 May) signed the acquisition of three assets in Finland for EUR 25.5m with a lettable area of 16,000 sqm and an average lease maturity of seven years. The assets are located in the Jyväskylä, Turku and Mikkeli regions. The largest asset is located in Muurame, Jyväskylä region, and has Lidl and HalpaHalli as anchor tenants. The other two assets are anchored by S-Group. Cibus targets EUR 50-100m in acquisitions annually, and during Q1 only EUR 9m was acquired, so Cibus is stepping up the acquisition pace, as we expected. Positive also that the tenant base becomes more diversified with Kesko’s share declining slightly. We expect a net yield of 6.5% on the acquisitions and a +2.3% impact on net rental income.

14 MAY 2021
Commissioned Research: Acquisition activity set to pick up
Cibus's Q1 income from property management (IFPM) was in line with Infront consensus and our estimates, adjusting for a positive one-off. Earnings capacity was unchanged as no acquisitions closed in Q1. Two smaller acquisitions were announced after Q1. We expect Cibus to continue making add-on acquisitions in Finland and Sweden before entering other Nordic markets. The company aims to acquire assets for EUR 50-100m annually; so far Cibus has acquired assets for EUR 9m in 2021. We keep our fair value range at SEK 160-180 per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV, peer valuations, and DCF. Cibus intends to grow its dividend by 5% annually and distributes dividends on a monthly basis. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

12 MAY 2021
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Stable Q1 in line with expectations adjusting for FX gain
Cibus posted Q1 net operating income of EUR 18.2m, up 40% y/y on the back of acquisitions and 3% ahead of our estimate and 2% better than Infront consensus. Income from property management (IFPM) was EUR 11.6m, up 69% y/y and 5% better than our estimate and 6% ahead of consensus. EPS of EUR 0.28 was in line with our estimates and 7% better than consensus. Fair value changes were limited at EUR +0.2m. It is worth noting that IFPM included EUR 0.5m in FX gains, which implies the IFPM was in line with expectations adjusting for that. ERPA EPS was EUR 12.2 (SEK 123) and net LTV was 61.6%. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share remained unchanged from Q4 at EUR 1.15 as no acquisitions were implemented during Q1. The company sees a number of acquisition targets, and has a target of acquiring assets for EUR 50-100m annually. Cibus maintains it target of moving to the Stockholm main list during H1 2021. Cibus is currently trading at a 46% premium to EPRA NAV, which we find justified given the stable operations and strong dividend focus. The dividend yield for 2021E-23E is 5.6-6.2% and Cibus distributes a monthly dividend. We expect a neutral share price reaction to the Q1 report which was largely in line with expectations adjusting for the positive FX gain.

7 MAY 2021
Commissioned Research: Ready for add-ons and large acquisitions
Cibus is reporting its Q1 results on 12 May. We expect net operating income of EUR 17.7m, up 6% q/q and 36% y/y owing to acquisitions conducted during the past year. We expect income from property management (IFPM) of EUR 11.0m, up 18% q/q and 61% y/y. We are largely in line with Infront consensus on the Q1 numbers. Cibus currently trades at a 46% premium to Q4 EPRA NAV, ie at a clear premium to the Nordic real estate sector. Cibus's infrastructure-like exposure to daily goods- and grocery-anchored retail assets provides a stable stream of rental income with only a limited threat from e-commerce, which creates a stable dividend profile and warrants a premium valuation. We keep our peer-, P/EPRA NAV- and DCF-based fair value range of SEK 160-180, corresponding to a 2021E dividend yield of 5.5-6.2% and a 2021E adjusted P/E range of 14.5-16.4x. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

26 FEB 2021
Commissioned Research: M&A ambitions remain high after active 2020
Cibus's Q4 income from property management (IFPM) was in line with Infront consensus, adjusting for one-offs. Earnings capacity was largely as expected after the two large acquisitions made in Q4 2020. The dividend proposal of EUR 0.94 for 2020 was also as expected. Although it acquired properties for EUR ~370m in 2020, Cibus targets more investments of EUR 50-100m foro 2021. We expect CIbus to continue making add-on acquisitions in Finland and Sweden before entering other Nordic markets. We keep our fair value range at SEK 160-180 per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV, peer valuations, and DCF. Cibus intends to grow its dividend by 5% annually and has started distributing dividends on a monthly basis. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

25 FEB 2021
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Solid Q4 while IFPM burdened by one-offs
Cibus posted Q4 rental income of EUR 17.6m and net rental income of EUR 16.7m, in line with our estimates and Infront consensus. Income from property management (IFPM) was EUR 9.3m, 9% below consensus of EUR 10.3m and 6% below our EUR 9.9m estimate. However, there were EUR 1.0m of non-recurring negative items; the administration costs included EUR 0.5m of costs related to the planned change of listing to the Nasdaq main list, and costs for conducting an inventory of fittings and equipment in the Swedish portfolio. Also, net financial items included a EUR 0.5m negative change in exchange rates. Adjusting for these, IFPM would have been in line with consensus. Fair value changes were EUR 1.3m for Q4 and EUR 6.5m for the full year (0.5% of portfolio). The dividend proposal is EUR 0.94, up from EUR 0.89 a year ago and higher than consensus of EUR 0.93 but lower than our EUR 0.95 estimate. The dividend yield is 5.8%. The earnings capacity-based IFPM per share is up at EUR 1.15 from EUR 1.10 after Q3 following the acquisitions conducted in Q4. We had expected EUR 1.17 and the difference is explained by somewhat higher administration and financial costs than we had forecasted. The company sees many potential acquisition targets in Finland and Sweden, and also assesses other Nordic markets. The company’s efforts to move to the share to the Nasdaq main list are continuing and the list change is expected to materialise during H1 2021. We do not expect a significant share price reaction on the Q4 result release.

Equity analysts

Director
Senior Analyst, Sector Coordinator

Key persons

CEO: Sverker Källgården

CFO: Pia-Lena Olofsson

Chairman: Patrick Gylling

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
EURm
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021E
2022E
2023E
Total revenues
n.a.
28.9
60.2
74.4
92.1
96.4
97.3
NOI
0.0
23.4
48.6
61.4
75.8
81.1
82.0
NOI margin
n.a.
81.0%
80.8%
82.5%
82.3%
84.1%
84.2%
EBIT (adj.)
0.0
21.1
43.3
54.9
69.5
75.8
76.6
EBIT (adj.) margin
n.a.
72.8%
72.0%
73.8%
75.5%
78.6%
78.7%
PTP (adj.)
0.0
13.2
27.8
33.1
46.4
53.6
54.4
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
0.00
12.36
27.22
33.07
44.55
49.86
50.02
Shareholders´ Equity
0.0
328.7
332.9
458.0
542.2
561.9
579.7
Net interest bearing debt
0.0
460.6
516.6
785.5
832.0
822.5
816.0
Net gearing
n.a.
140.1%
155.2%
171.5%
153.5%
146.4%
140.7%
Net debt/EBITDA
n.a.
21.9
11.9
14.3
12.0
10.8
10.7
Net operating cash flow
0.0
16.1
12.8
35.2
48.6
51.0
50.3
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
0.0
31.1
31.1
40.0
42.0
42.0
42.0
Nordea Markets estimates published on Aug 19, 2021
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021E
2022E
2023E
NAVPS
0.0
10.7
10.9
11.1
14.1
15.6
17.1
EPS (adj.)
n.a.
0.40
0.88
0.92
1.08
1.15
1.16
DPS
0.00
0.84
0.89
0.94
0.99
1.04
1.10
BVPS
n.a.
10.6
10.7
11.5
12.9
13.4
13.8
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
25.4
15.9
18.1
20.1
18.8
18.8
P/NAV
n.a.
0.9
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
n.a.
36.79
21.90
26.43
25.09
22.88
22.57
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
36.79
21.90
26.43
25.09
22.88
22.57
P/BV
n.a.
0.96
1.30
1.45
1.68
1.62
1.57
P/CE
n.a.
19.4
33.7
18.9
18.8
17.9
18.1
Dividend yield
n.a.
8.3%
6.4%
5.7%
4.6%
4.8%
5.1%
RoE
n.a.
8.4%
9.2%
8.7%
10.8%
11.1%
10.8%
ROIC
n.a.
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.2%
4.3%
4.3%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Aug 19, 2021
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Refinitiv