Cibus

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Construction and Real Estate
SEK 8,681.38
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
CIBUS SS
CIBUS.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 151.65

Latest Reports

24 APR 2024
Commissioned Research: Earnings capacity-based EPS continues to grow
Cibus' Q1 2024 income from property management (IFPM) was 7% below Infront consensus, adjusted for one-offs. Administration costs were elevated due to the CEO change and net financial costs were slightly higher than we expected. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share grew by EUR 0.01 q/q to EUR 0.96, marking the third consecutive quarter of increase. Cibus remains well hedged for the next 15 months. Cibus has refinanced all its bonds, and bond maturities are covered until early 2027. We make minor estimate changes after the Q1 report. Our fair value range remains at SEK 130-160 per share. The share is trading in line with its EPRA NRV, which we believe could pave way for potential equity-financed M&A in the medium term. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

23 APR 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Q1 IFPM below consensus, earnings capacity-based EPS continues to increase
Cibus posted Q1 net operating income of EUR 28.1m, up 2% y/y and 1% below Infront consensus. Income from property management (IFPM) excluding one-offs was EUR 12.5m, up 6% y/y but 9% below our estimate, and 7% below consensus. The reported IFPM was EUR 12.2m. Reported IFPM included EUR -0.3m of one-off items (FX differences). Fair value changes were EUR -22.3m (1.2% of portfolio) as average valuation yield expanded by ~0.1pp and was 6.5% (6.4% in Q4 2023). Also, a writedown was made on an asset in Lahti, leased to Kesko, from where Kesko will move out in 2-3 years. Discussions are ongoing to find a new tenant/solution for the property. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share was slightly up q/q at EUR 0.96 from EUR 0.95 owing to higher rental income. Net financial expenses in earnings capacity is EUR 51.3m versus EUR 51.5m in Q4. EPRA NRV was EUR 11.9 (SEK 138), down from EUR 12.5 in Q4. Cibus is currently trading at a 2% premium to EPRA NRV and an implied yield of 6.5%. Cibus has effectively capped interest rates until H1 2025 and the average interest rate was 4.6% versus 4.5% at the end of 2023. We expect a slightly negative share price reaction on the IFPM miss and relatively large negative fair value changes. However, the sustainable 7.5% dividend yield should offer support.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
27 MAR 2024
Commissioned Research: Bond maturities covered until early 2027
Last week, Cibus issued green notes of EUR 80m and SEK 700m and launched a tender offer for bonds maturing in 2024 and 2025. The new bonds issued have maturities of four and 3.5 years, respectively. Earlier this year, Cibus also issued a EUR 50m three-year bond, and thus the company has covered all bond maturities until January 2027. The bond maturity profile is extended by almost two years and the average bond margin drops by more than 2pp. We believe this will secure Cibus' dividends going forward; we expect an unchanged dividend of EUR 0.9 per share for the coming years, paid in monthly instalments. We also believe that Cibus could consider making selected acquisitions, although to a limited extent given its LTV of ~57%. We raise our fair value range to SEK 130-160 (120-150) now that the refinancing issues have been resolved. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

21 MAR 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: EUR 80m and SEK 700m bonds issued to prolong bond maturities significantly
Cibus announced yesterday evening it has issued a 4-year EUR bond of EUR 80m at Euribor 3m plus 400bps and a SEK 700m SEK 3.5 year bond at Stibor 3m plus 350 bps in order to replace shorter bonds (with credit margins of 400-700 bps) where a tender offer was launched on 18 March. This will prolong maturities for bonds from 1.4 years to 3.8 years and reduce the average interest rate margin of the bonds by ~2.3 pp. At the end of 2023, Cibus had 14% of its debt financing in bonds and 84% in secured bank loans (and a EUR 30m hybrid bond). The average margin on the secured bank loans was 1.7% at the end of 2023 with an average maturity of 1.9 years. The refinancing with new bond issues provide additional flexibility to the financing structure and should be considered positive news for Cibus, in our view.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
1 MAR 2024
Commissioned Research: Positioned to keep dividend steady
Cibus' Q4 2023 income from property management (IFPM) was 7% below Infront consensus, adjusted for one-offs. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share increased by EUR 0.02 q/q to EUR 0.95, giving support to a EUR 0.90 dividend going forward. Cibus remains well hedged for the next 18 months. We cut our adjusted EPS estimates by 5-7% due to slightly lower rental increase assumptions and somewhat higher interest costs. Our fair value range is unchanged at SEK 120-150 per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV and peer valuation. The share is trading at a ~15% discount on EPRA NRV, which corresponds to an implied yield of 6.9% versus the reported 6.4%. The unchanged dividend of EUR 0.90 should be sustainable given the extensive hedging valid until mid-2025. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

29 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Dividend unchanged at EUR 0.90 and earnings capacity suggests dividend could be sustained
Cibus posted Q4 net operating income of EUR 30.1m, up 6% y/y and in line with Infront consensus. Income from property management (IFPM) excluding one-offs was EUR 12.4m, flat y/y and 10% below our estimate, and 7% below consensus. The reported IFPM was EUR 11.8m. Reported IFPM included EUR -0.6m of one-off items. The dividend proposal is EUR 0.90, same as consensus and unchanged y/y. Fair value changes were EUR -31.2m (-1.7% of portfolio) as average valuation yield expanded 0.21 pp and was 6.4% (6.2% in Q3). Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share was slightly up q/q at EUR 0.95 from EUR 0.93 owing to higher rental income. Net financial expenses in earnings capacity is EUR 51.5m versus EUR 51.1m in Q3. EPRA NRV was EUR 12.5 (SEK 140), down from EUR 13.0 in Q3. Cibus is currently trading at a ~20% discount to EPRA NRV and an implied yield of 7.0% versus the average valuation yield of 6.4%. Cibus has effectively capped interest rates until H1 2025 and the average interest rate was 4.5% at the end of 2023. We expect a slightly negative share price reaction on the IFPM miss and relatively large negative fair value changes. However, the sustainable 9% dividend yield should offer support.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
23 FEB 2024
Commissioned Research: Well positioned to defend its attractive dividend
Ahead of Cibus' Q4 2023 report, we leave our operational estimates largely unchanged, while we raise those for 2024-25 income from property management (IFPM) by 7-9%, to reflect lower interest rates and our refinancing assumptions. We include the recent EUR 50m bond issue, which was made at three-month Euribor plus 400bp. We do not think Cibus will carry out any meaningful acquisitions, although it has the capacity to return to M&A mode. Instead, we believe Cibus will prefer to buy back its bonds with maturities in 2024 and 2025. As yields in the grocery-anchored real estate segment have been stable in recent years, we see limited risk of significant yield expansion and asset value declines. Hence, we believe Cibus is not in a hurry to change its LTV target of 55-65%, but instead will try to remain close to the low end of the range. We see no imminent need for new equity. Larger acquisitions would need an equity component, and with shares trading at an EPRA NRV discount of over 20%, we find it unlikely that equity would be used to finance acquisitions currently. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

8 NOV 2023
Commissioned Research: Interest rate hedges starting to show in earnings
Cibus' Q3 2023 income from property management (IFPM) was 16% ahead of Infront consensus, adjusted for one-offs. The decline in earnings capacity-based IFPM per share came to an end; instead, there was a EUR 0.02 q/q improvement, to EUR 0.93. This was mainly caused by the decline in the cost of debt from 4.6% to 4.4%. We make limited changes to our IFPM estimates for 2024-25. We raise our fair value range slightly to SEK 120-150 (110-140) per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV and peer valuation. The share is trading at a ~20% discount to EPRA NRV, which corresponds to an implied yield of 6.8% versus the reported 6.2%. The EUR 0.9 dividend should be sustainable given the extensive hedging. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

7 NOV 2023
Commissioned Research: Flash Comment: Strong operations in Q3 and earnings capacity-based EPS turned to a positive trend
Cibus posted Q3 net operating income of EUR 31.0m, up 18% y/y but included as much as EUR 2.7m in one-offs. Adjusted for one-off NOI was in line with Infront consensus. Income from property management (IFPM) excluding one-offs was EUR 14.2m, down 3% y/y and 8% above our estimate, and 16% above consensus. Reported IFPM included EUR -0.1m of negative one-offs in financial items. Fair value changes were EUR -5.4m (0.3% of portfolio) as yields expanded slightly and average valuation yield was 6.2% (6.1% in Q2). Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share was up q/q at EUR 0.93 from EUR 0.91 owing to slightly lower financial expense. Net financial expenses in earnings capacity is EUR 51.1m versus EUR 52.1m in Q2. EPRA NRV was EUR 13.0 (SEK 150), flat from EUR 13.0 in Q2. Cibus is currently trading at a ~25% discount to EPRA NRV and an implied yield of 7.1% versus the average valuation yield of 6.2%. Cibus has effectively capped interest rates until H1 2025. We expect a clearly positive share price reaction as balance sheet measures are coming through, the earnings capacity-based EPS turned to a positive trend and should support the EUR 0.9 being sustainable and underlying business is performing as expected.

31 OCT 2023
Commissioned Research: Hedging in place, for now
Ahead of Cibus' Q3 2023 report, we trim our estimates to reflect changes in interest rates. We cut our income from property management (IFPM) and adjusted EPS estimates by 2-3% for 2023-25, due to higher net financials. We do not believe Cibus will carry out any meaningful M&A, as we argue that the company will focus on securing its balance sheet metrics for the foreseeable future. We also believe Cibus will strengthen its balance sheet, either through divestments or equity-like funding, as it likely needs to lower its net LTV from the current ~57%. As yields in the grocery-anchored real estate segment have been stable in recent years, we see limited risk of significant yield expansion and asset value declines. We keep our EPRA NRV-based fair value range of SEK 110-140 unchanged. Cibus is currently trading at a 33% EPRA NRV discount and an implied yield of ~7%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

Equity analysts

Director
Associate Director

Key persons

CEO: Christian Fredrixon

CFO: Pia-Lena Olofsson

Chairman: Patrick Gylling

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
EURm
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
Total revenues
74.4
93.8
124.0
140.0
142.0
146.2
150.0
NOI
61.4
76.3
99.6
114.7
114.4
118.2
121.7
NOI margin
82.5%
81.4%
80.3%
81.9%
80.6%
80.8%
81.2%
EBIT (adj.)
54.9
69.9
91.1
104.8
105.6
109.4
112.7
EBIT (adj.) margin
73.8%
74.6%
73.4%
74.8%
74.4%
74.8%
75.1%
PTP (adj.)
33.1
48.7
55.2
51.9
57.4
60.2
61.1
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
33.07
48.67
54.91
51.12
56.88
57.90
58.20
Shareholders´ Equity
458.0
583.3
697.8
693.2
677.3
688.0
698.7
Net interest bearing debt
785.5
875.9
1,100.7
1,044.1
1,041.6
1,037.2
1,032.6
Net gearing
171.5%
150.2%
157.7%
150.6%
153.8%
150.7%
147.8%
Net debt/EBITDA
14.3
12.5
12.1
10.0
9.9
9.5
9.2
Net operating cash flow
35.2
51.0
64.8
57.0
54.3
55.9
56.7
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
40.0
44.0
48.4
57.2
57.2
57.2
57.2
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 6, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
EUR and %
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
2026E
NAVPS
10.6
11.8
12.0
11.9
12.5
13.6
14.7
EPS (adj.)
0.92
1.18
1.12
0.89
0.95
0.97
0.97
DPS
0.94
0.99
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
BVPS
11.5
13.3
14.4
12.1
11.8
12.0
12.2
P/E (adj.)
18.1
24.0
11.5
13.5
13.7
13.5
13.4
P/NAV
1.6
2.4
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
26.43
30.38
18.94
16.55
16.93
16.30
15.79
EV/EBIT (adj.)
26.43
30.38
18.94
16.55
16.93
16.30
15.79
P/BV
1.45
2.14
0.89
1.00
1.10
1.08
1.07
P/CE
18.9
24.5
9.6
12.1
13.7
13.3
13.2
Dividend yield
5.7%
3.5%
7.0%
7.5%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
RoE
8.7%
9.9%
12.5%
-2.9%
5.2%
9.1%
9.0%
ROIC
4.1%
4.1%
4.4%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
5.1%
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 6, 2024
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics