CapMan Oyj

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Finland
Investment Companies
EUR 307.32
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Website:
CAPMAN FH
CAPMAN.HE
Share price (close):
EUR 1.97

Latest Reports

7 AUG 2020
Commissioned Research: Strategic changes might take a while to pay off
CapMan is a leading Nordic private asset manager, serving international and domestic customers and specialising in Real Estate. With its Q2 report, it established two new funds in its fundraising portfolio, which implies confidence in investor demand despite the current economic turmoil. On the negative side, the reorganisation of the Services business may have a negative effect on the short-term earnings outlook. Financial performance was burdened by weak market conditions and Q2 EBIT without fair value changes missed consensus by 35%. We calculate a fair value range of EUR 1.7-2.0 based on the average of three valuation methods. Marketing material commissioned by CapMan Oyj.

31 JUL 2020
Commissioned Research: Q2 to suffer from delayed investment decisions
Due to the unprecedented situation, we believe that during Q2 investors might have postponed making decisions related to new fund investments, which could be reflected in CapMan's quarterly results published on 6 August. Given the strong comparison figures and an optimistic consensus, we identify Q2 as a negative trigger for the share. However, we are confident in CapMan's ability to attract investments to its funds over the medium term and expect the company to continue increasing dividend payments despite the short-term softness. We keep our fair value range unchanged at EUR 1.9-2.2 per share based on the average of three valuation methods. Marketing material commissioned by CapMan Oyj.

24 APR 2020
Commissioned Research: Underlying demand remains, pipeline grows
CapMan reported an operationally solid quarter with fair value losses of EUR 8.4m, reflecting deteriorated market valuations due to COVID-19. The growth plan for its new funds pipeline could be delayed up to six months but management stated that underlying demand for its products is still intact and added the Growth II fund to the fundraising pipeline. Services EBIT was strong in Q1 but could disappoint in Q2 due to lower fundraising activity. We believe an increasing dividend will be paid for 2020, despite the COVID-19 headwinds. Our new valuation range is EUR 1.9-2.2 (1.9-2.3), based on the average of three valuation methods.

20 APR 2020
Commissioned Research: COVID-19 to delay growth plans
Travel restrictions and market disturbances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely delay CapMan's growth plans, which consist of several new funds in the fundraising pipeline. We lower our EBIT estimate for 2021 by 23% to reflect a scenario where fundraising is put on hold for six months and net investments in new targets remain at zero for 2020 but return to a normal level in 2021. We also plot fair value impairments of 20% for buyout investments and 10% for real assets, with a EUR 17.4m impact on 2020E group EBIT (mainly non-cash). Our new valuation range is EUR 1.9-2.3 (2.4-2.9), based on the average of three valuation methods.

31 JAN 2020
Commissioned Research: Growth outlook for 2020-21 seems promising
We expect CapMan's fee-based Management Company sales to develop favourably in 2020-21 due to a positive read from the Q4 results. CapMan's fee-based revenue from the Management Company business came in 14% above our estimates for Q4, suggesting that the starting point is already at a good level. Moreover, the company stated that it expects to grow its AuM significantly in 2020 – it announced a new real estate fund in the fundraising pipeline that could add EUR 0.5-0.6bn to CapMan's AuM according to our estimates. We set our valuation range at EUR 2.4-2.9 per share, based on an average of three different valuation methods. Marketing material commissioned by CapMan Oyj.

9 JAN 2020
Commissioned Research: New innovative products driving growth
CapMan will report its 2019 results on 30 January 2020. The positive development in fee-based revenue during the last 12 months should facilitate CapMan's sixth consecutive dividend increase, up to EUR 0.13 for the financial year of 2019. We expect CapMan's adjusted EBIT growth to remain at 19% for 2020, driven by sales growth and operating leverage in the Management Company (MC) and Services divisions. CapMan has several new products in the pipeline that should add revenue in 2020, have low incremental expenses, and that could facilitate profitability improvement in the MC division (we estimate the adjusted EBIT margin will move from 20% in 2019 up to 30% in 2020). We set a fair value range of EUR 2.1-2.5 per share based on a combination of valuation methods.

1 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: Service growth adds confidence to dividend
CapMan reported solid Q3 results with EBIT beating consensus by 18%. Services sales and EBIT stayed at relatively high levels, taking into account the Q2 over-performance. We expect the Services division to be the major growth contributor during 2020-21. Management communicated that the business related to the recently acquired JAM Advisors has developed well – especially within the more profitable products – which further boosts Services growth. Fee-based EBIT, which is relatively steady, has increased from EUR 0.5m in 2017 up to EUR 12m in the last 12 months; we argue this is a positive change for CapMan's earnings predictability. Due to more predictable earnings we are more confident in CapMan's ability to increase its dividend for 2020-21. We set a fair value range of EUR 2.0-2.3 per share.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
9 AUG 2019
Commissioned Research: Positive momentum continues
CapMan's Q2 EBIT of EUR 6.3m beat consensus' estimate by 35%. The strong Q2 was driven by healthy growth in fee-based income, especially from the Services segment. The Management company business is also developing well, with AuM growth of +18% y/y. The fair value changes were positive despite a decline in general market valuation levels. The company is currently exiting several portfolio companies, which increases its carried interest potential for the next 12 months. CapMan is also raising capital for three funds currently and will likely publish new products during H2. We believe the company's outlook for paying a growing dividend seems safe. Our fair value range is EUR 1.7-2.1. Marketing material commissioned by CapMan Oyj.

Analysts: Svante Krokfors
26 APR 2019
Commissioned Research: New funds and services as growth factors
Q1 comparable EBIT was positively affected by growth in fee-based income (service income +88 y/y, management fees +9% y/y) in accordance with CapMan's strategy to increase the earnings stability. The carried interest, that tends to vary over time, was low but is expected to increase in H2 2019. A strong balance sheet, AuM growth and the ongoing fundraising pave the way for continuing growth in fee-based income, investment gains and annually increasing dividends. Marketing material commissioned by CapMan

Analysts:
1 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Solid strategic execution continues
CapMan's Q4 EBIT of EUR -2.9m was broadly in line with consensus of EUR -2.7m but above our estimate of EUR -4.5m, as we had assumed higher negative fair value changes (EUR -4m versus our estimate of EUR -5m). The strategy of creating more earnings stability remains well on track, with CapMan having increased its AuM to around EUR 3.4bn (EUR 3.0bn at end-2018). We believe that the acquisition of JAM Advisors should also help CapMan to broaden its distribution network and acquire new clients. We remain cautious and model in only half of the targeted EUR 0.5m annual cost synergies and do not assume any cross-selling opportunities in our estimates. Marketing material commissioned by CapMan Oyj

Analysts: Marie Scheja

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Key persons

CEO: Joakim Frimodig

CFO: Niko Haavisto

Chairman: Andreas Tallberg