Speqta

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Media
SEK 279.56
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
SPEQT SS
SPEQT.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 7.32

Latest Reports

15 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: Speqta's best Q3 yet
Speqta posted sales growth of 98%, 12 pp ahead of our estimates, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17%, 2 pp better than anticipated. Organic growth accelerated to 72% y/y, mainly thanks to the well-performing shopping segment, and Shopello in particular. We slightly upgrade our sales estimates and fair equity value range to SEK 6.3-16.5 per share to reflect the somewhat improved outlook.

Analysts: Daniel Ovin
19 SEP 2019
Commissioned Research: Magnetising customers through affiliation
Speqta is a leading Nordic affiliate marketing platform with more than 2,680 connected stores and operations in 17 European countries. It operates in a market with strong underlying growth, and especially since it became a Google premium CSS partner in 2018, we see several more years of organic market share gains and margin expansion ahead for the company. Using a combination of DCF and relative valuation, we estimate a fair equity range of SEK 6.5-16.1 per share. Our valuation does not include any acquisitions that could lift this range higher.

Equity analysts

Senior Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Andereas Friis

CFO: Ulrika Jones

Chairman: Fredrik Burvall

Numbers
Nordea
SEKm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
50,579.0
44,115.0
36,696.0
59,128.0
104,020.4
139,220.4
166,602.7
Ebitda (adj.)
1,304.00
-1,482.00
102.00
7,794.00
19,323.76
33,482.04
42,096.36
Ebitda - margin
2.6%
-3.4%
0.3%
13.2%
18.6%
24.0%
25.3%
EBIT (adj.)
-6,946.0
-8,593.0
-8,704.0
-3,572.0
4,219.7
15,974.8
24,103.3
EBIT (adj.) margin
-13.7%
-19.5%
-23.7%
-6.0%
4.1%
11.5%
14.5%
PTP (adj.)
-8,720.0
-8,285.0
-10,602.0
-5,409.0
894.0
14,913.5
23,041.9
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
-8,172.00
-8,116.00
-10,145.00
-4,372.00
1,198.26
11,721.99
18,295.29
Shareholders´ Equity
22,100.0
22,690.0
28,761.0
41,697.0
75,080.8
75,948.4
83,087.9
Net interest bearing debt
12,565.0
13,806.0
-428.0
-1,446.0
16,992.5
17,541.6
9,392.4
Net gearing
56.3%
60.0%
-1.5%
-3.5%
22.6%
23.1%
11.3%
Net debt/EBITDA
9.6
-9.3
-4.2
-0.2
0.9
0.5
0.2
Free cash flow to equity
-7,962.0
-11,329.0
-15,792.0
-4,606.0
-50,256.5
-549.0
8,149.2
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
16,613.7
17,613.7
22,017.1
28,879.8
38,190.7
38,190.7
38,190.7
Nordea Markets estimates published on Nov 15, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
SEK and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
EPS (adj.)
-0.49
-0.45
-0.47
-0.15
0.03
0.31
0.48
EPS (adj.) growth
36.2%
8.2%
-3.8%
67.6%
118.5%
1,001.4%
56.1%
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
BVPS
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
2.0
2.0
2.2
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
23.8
15.3
EV/Sales
2.98
3.96
1.69
4.17
2.85
2.13
1.73
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
115.54
n.a.
606.59
31.63
15.35
8.87
6.86
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
70.28
18.60
11.99
P/BV
6.24
7.09
2.16
5.94
3.72
3.68
3.36
Dividend yield
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
-5.2%
-7.0%
-21.8%
-2.2%
-4.3%
-0.2%
2.9%
RoE
-32.1%
-35.3%
-39.8%
-12.3%
1.8%
15.5%
23.0%
ROIC
-15.6%
-17.9%
-16.4%
-5.6%
4.1%
11.6%
17.5%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Nov 15, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters