Speqta

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Media
SEK 316.22
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
SPEQT FN
SPEQT.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 8.28

Latest Reports

19 SEP 2019
Commissioned Research: Magnetising customers through affiliation
Speqta is a leading Nordic affiliate marketing platform with more than 2,680 connected stores and operations in 17 European countries. It operates in a market with strong underlying growth, and especially since it became a Google premium CSS partner in 2018, we see several more years of organic market share gains and margin expansion ahead for the company. Using a combination of DCF and relative valuation, we estimate a fair equity range of SEK 6.5-16.1 per share. Our valuation does not include any acquisitions that could lift this range higher.

Equity analysts

Senior Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Andereas Fris

CFO: Ulrika Jones

Chairman: Fredrik Burvall

Numbers
Nordea
SEKm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
50,579.0
44,115.0
36,696.0
59,128.0
101,293.0
135,518.7
162,118.3
Ebitda (adj.)
1,304.00
-1,482.00
102.00
7,794.00
18,990.11
32,598.99
40,999.52
Ebitda - margin
2.6%
-3.4%
0.3%
13.2%
18.7%
24.1%
25.3%
EBIT (adj.)
-6,946.0
-8,593.0
-8,704.0
-3,572.0
4,537.2
16,037.4
24,139.2
EBIT (adj.) margin
-13.7%
-19.5%
-23.7%
-6.0%
4.5%
11.8%
14.9%
PTP (adj.)
-8,720.0
-8,285.0
-10,602.0
-5,409.0
1,657.5
14,976.1
23,077.9
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
-8,172.00
-8,116.00
-10,145.00
-4,372.00
1,683.83
11,771.20
18,323.83
ShareholdersĀ“ Equity
22,100.0
22,690.0
28,761.0
41,697.0
64,137.3
65,640.3
73,510.8
Net interest bearing debt
12,565.0
13,806.0
-428.0
-1,446.0
20,624.8
20,469.5
11,551.3
Net gearing
56.3%
60.0%
-1.5%
-3.5%
32.1%
31.2%
15.7%
Net debt/EBITDA
9.6
-9.3
-4.2
-0.2
1.1
0.6
0.3
Free cash flow to equity
-7,962.0
-11,329.0
-15,792.0
-4,606.0
-53,888.8
155.3
8,918.2
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
16,613.7
17,613.7
22,017.1
28,879.8
38,190.7
38,190.7
38,190.7
Nordea Markets estimates published on Sep 19, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
SEK and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
EPS (adj.)
-0.49
-0.45
-0.47
-0.15
0.04
0.31
0.48
EPS (adj.) growth
36.2%
8.2%
-3.8%
67.6%
126.9%
659.5%
55.7%
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
BVPS
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.9
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
26.9
17.3
EV/Sales
2.98
3.96
1.69
4.17
3.33
2.48
2.02
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
115.54
n.a.
606.59
31.63
17.74
10.33
8.00
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
74.25
21.00
13.58
P/BV
6.24
7.09
2.16
5.94
4.93
4.82
4.30
Dividend yield
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
FCF yield
-5.8%
-7.0%
-25.4%
-1.9%
-17.0%
0.0%
2.8%
RoE
-32.1%
-35.3%
-39.8%
-12.3%
2.9%
18.1%
26.3%
ROIC
-15.6%
-17.9%
-16.4%
-5.6%
4.4%
11.8%
17.7%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Sep 19, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters