Moberg Pharma

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Healthcare
SEK 285.63
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
MOB SS
MBPH.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 15.15

Latest Reports

26 JUN 2020
Commissioned Research: Few surprises in the European MOB-015 trial
The European ph III study for MOB-015 showed a similar top-line result as the North American study. The primary endpoint was met but the complete cure rate was low at only 1.8%. The mycological cure rate was, however, high at 84%. The result clouds the way to market even though it can be enough for product registration in Europe. A new study (with a shortened dosing regimen) has already been planned to meet the formal requirement for registration in the US. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
13 MAY 2020
Commissioned Research: Top-line results expected within weeks
The results from the ongoing European MOB-015 ph III study (due at the end of Q2) will determine the way forward for Moberg Pharma. Even though an additional study will be needed to document the potential advantages of a shorter dosing regimen, a positive outcome could be enough for product registration. During Q1, Moberg Pharma showed good cost control and also entered into a new financing agreement. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
12 FEB 2020
Commissioned Research: Plans for an additional study
Results from the upcoming European study will pave the way forward for Moberg Pharma as they should provide the basis for the registration of MOB-015. The results will also determine the timing of the planned additional study that will evaluate a shorter treatment period, as suggested by KOL. While we are encouraged by the high mycological cure rate in the North American study, we acknowledge that the uncertainty of our estimates has increased due to recent events. We lower our DCF-based fair value range to SEK 21-25 (23-27) per share following the report. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
23 JAN 2020
Commissioned Research: Experts clarify ph III results
Yesterday, Moberg Pharma held a presentation clarifying the puzzling ph III results for the US MOB-015 study, which was published in December last year. A number of key opinion leaders have now reviewed the data, confirming its validity and settling on a likely solution to the problem. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
10 DEC 2019
Commissioned Research: Puzzling results
The North American phase III results for MOB-015 are puzzling. A complete cure was achieved in only 4.5% of the patients, well below the company's previously communicated target. However, 70% of patients achieved a mycological cure – which often correlates with a complete cure – surpassing expectations. Thus, even though the overall results were disappointing, we argue that the unusually high difference between the complete and mycological cure rates needs to be further examined before the commercial potential of MOB-015 can be accurately assessed.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
20 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: Top-line results a few weeks away
2019 has been an eventful year for Moberg Pharma, with a wave of positive news flow. The OTC business has been divested and four partnership agreements (most recently for South Korea) have been signed. The stage is now set for the upcoming top-line results for MOB-015, expected in only a few weeks' time (December). Following the announced redemption programme, the ordinary share has been split into an ordinary share and a redemption share (SEK 46.5 per share). We adjust our fair value accordingly to SEK 44-54 (90-100). Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
2 OCT 2019
Commissioned Research: Positive news flow continues
Moberg Pharma continues to deliver positive news flow. The company recently announced that it has signed another licence agreement for its lead pipeline asset, MOB-015. The new partnership deal is with Taisho Pharmaceutical and gives Taisho exclusive rights to commercialise MOB-015 in Japan. In addition, the board of directors has proposed a redemption amount of SEK 46.5 per share, above the previously communicated range of SEK 43-45. The main focus, however, is still on the upcoming top-line results for MOB-015 (expected in December). Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma

Analysts: Klas Pyk
30 AUG 2019
Commissioned Research: Pivotal results closing in
With more than 95% of patients having completed the MOB-015 US study, Moberg Pharma is moving fast towards the first phase III readout (expected in December), which in our view will represent a major valuation trigger for the share. Shareholders can also expect a share redemption of an estimated SEK 43-45 per share, according to the company, following the AGM scheduled for 30 October. Earnings in the quarter were in line with our expectations and given its cash position of SEK 919m we consider Moberg Pharma well financed both to execute on its share redemption and to finalise its clinical programme. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
15 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: Entering a new phase
Following the divestment of the OTC portfolio, we update our model to reflect the new Moberg Pharma. We remove all future revenue and earnings contributions from the divested operations, implying significant changes to our sales and EBIT estimates. Our view on the potential for MOB-015, however, remains unchanged and we model peak sales of USD ~275m. We update our fair value range to SEK 90-100 (74-87) per share, based on a risk adjustment of 45-60% for sales and royalties. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
15 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Full focus on MOB-015
In conjunction with Moberg Pharma's Q4 report, the company announced that it will divest its OTC business for USD 155m (~SEK 1,431m). The company will use the proceeds to repay its SEK ~600m bond and pay an estimated dividend of SEK 43-45 per share. With the OTC business divested, focus shifts entirely to the company's flagship pipeline asset, MOB-015. The phase III top line results for MOB-015 are expected in Q4 2019 and Q2 2020 for North America and Europe, respectively. The company also announced that it has entered an exclusive license agreement with Bayer for the commercialisation of MOB-015 in Europe. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma

Analysts: Klas Pyk

Equity analysts

Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Anna Ljung

CFO:

Chairman: Peter Wolpert

Numbers
Nordea
SEKm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
n.a.
334.3
439.0
546.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
Ebitda (adj.)
n.a.
77.91
89.44
121.63
14.48
-13.53
-18.66
Ebitda - margin
n.a.
23.3%
20.4%
22.3%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
62.2
51.1
75.2
13.2
-13.5
-18.7
EBIT (adj.) margin
n.a.
18.6%
11.6%
13.8%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
PTP (adj.)
n.a.
46.5
11.7
20.9
12.3
-14.7
-19.8
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
n.a.
32.67
11.16
16.02
9.51
-17.47
-19.83
Shareholders´ Equity
n.a.
561.6
552.4
1,121.0
319.5
302.1
282.3
Net interest bearing debt
n.a.
502.9
472.4
-893.1
25.3
89.8
121.6
Net gearing
n.a.
89.6%
85.5%
-79.7%
7.9%
29.7%
43.1%
Net debt/EBITDA
n.a.
6.5
5.3
-7.3
1.8
n.a.
n.a.
Free cash flow to equity
n.a.
-698.6
34.1
1,352.8
-107.5
-64.5
-31.8
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
n.a.
14.4
17.4
17.4
18.9
18.9
18.9
Nordea Markets estimates published on Jun 26, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
SEK and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
EPS (adj.)
n.a.
2.25
0.64
0.91
0.50
-0.92
-1.05
EPS (adj.) growth
n.a.
26.9%
-71.8%
43.6%
-45.1%
-283.6%
-13.5%
DPS
n.a.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
BVPS
n.a.
39.0
31.7
64.3
16.9
16.0
15.0
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
10.7
18.4
30.4
30.2
n.a.
n.a.
EV/Sales
n.a.
2.54
1.54
-0.75
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
n.a.
10.90
7.56
n.a.
21.48
n.a.
n.a.
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
13.66
13.23
n.a.
23.54
n.a.
n.a.
P/BV
n.a.
0.62
0.37
0.43
0.89
0.95
1.01
Dividend yield
n.a.
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
n.a.
-20.0%
-9.6%
-16.5%
-37.7%
-22.6%
-11.1%
RoE
n.a.
7.1%
2.0%
68.3%
1.3%
-5.6%
-6.8%
ROIC
n.a.
7.0%
3.8%
9.2%
3.5%
-2.8%
-3.6%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Jun 26, 2020
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Refinitiv