Moberg Pharma

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Healthcare
SEK 387.38
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
MOB SS
MBPH.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 20.75

Latest Reports

Commissioned Research: Experts clarify ph III results
Yesterday, Moberg Pharma held a presentation clarifying the puzzling ph III results for the US MOB-015 study, which was published in December last year. A number of key opinion leaders have now reviewed the data, confirming its validity and settling on a likely solution to the problem. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
10 DEC 2019
Commissioned Research: Puzzling results
The North American phase III results for MOB-015 are puzzling. A complete cure was achieved in only 4.5% of the patients, well below the company's previously communicated target. However, 70% of patients achieved a mycological cure – which often correlates with a complete cure – surpassing expectations. Thus, even though the overall results were disappointing, we argue that the unusually high difference between the complete and mycological cure rates needs to be further examined before the commercial potential of MOB-015 can be accurately assessed.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
20 NOV 2019
Commissioned Research: Top-line results a few weeks away
2019 has been an eventful year for Moberg Pharma, with a wave of positive news flow. The OTC business has been divested and four partnership agreements (most recently for South Korea) have been signed. The stage is now set for the upcoming top-line results for MOB-015, expected in only a few weeks' time (December). Following the announced redemption programme, the ordinary share has been split into an ordinary share and a redemption share (SEK 46.5 per share). We adjust our fair value accordingly to SEK 44-54 (90-100). Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
2 OCT 2019
Commissioned Research: Positive news flow continues
Moberg Pharma continues to deliver positive news flow. The company recently announced that it has signed another licence agreement for its lead pipeline asset, MOB-015. The new partnership deal is with Taisho Pharmaceutical and gives Taisho exclusive rights to commercialise MOB-015 in Japan. In addition, the board of directors has proposed a redemption amount of SEK 46.5 per share, above the previously communicated range of SEK 43-45. The main focus, however, is still on the upcoming top-line results for MOB-015 (expected in December). Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma

Analysts: Klas Pyk
30 AUG 2019
Commissioned Research: Pivotal results closing in
With more than 95% of patients having completed the MOB-015 US study, Moberg Pharma is moving fast towards the first phase III readout (expected in December), which in our view will represent a major valuation trigger for the share. Shareholders can also expect a share redemption of an estimated SEK 43-45 per share, according to the company, following the AGM scheduled for 30 October. Earnings in the quarter were in line with our expectations and given its cash position of SEK 919m we consider Moberg Pharma well financed both to execute on its share redemption and to finalise its clinical programme. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
15 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: Entering a new phase
Following the divestment of the OTC portfolio, we update our model to reflect the new Moberg Pharma. We remove all future revenue and earnings contributions from the divested operations, implying significant changes to our sales and EBIT estimates. Our view on the potential for MOB-015, however, remains unchanged and we model peak sales of USD ~275m. We update our fair value range to SEK 90-100 (74-87) per share, based on a risk adjustment of 45-60% for sales and royalties. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
15 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Full focus on MOB-015
In conjunction with Moberg Pharma's Q4 report, the company announced that it will divest its OTC business for USD 155m (~SEK 1,431m). The company will use the proceeds to repay its SEK ~600m bond and pay an estimated dividend of SEK 43-45 per share. With the OTC business divested, focus shifts entirely to the company's flagship pipeline asset, MOB-015. The phase III top line results for MOB-015 are expected in Q4 2019 and Q2 2020 for North America and Europe, respectively. The company also announced that it has entered an exclusive license agreement with Bayer for the commercialisation of MOB-015 in Europe. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma

Analysts: Klas Pyk
12 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Moberg Pharma to divest its OTC business for USD 155m
Today, Moberg Pharma announced that it will divest its OTC business for USD 155m (~SEK 1,431m) in cash. The company will use the proceeds to repay its SEK 600m bond and pay a dividend of SEK 43-45 per share. In addition, the company announced that it had signed an exclusive licence agreement for MOB-015 in Europe. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
7 NOV 2018
Commissioned Research: Solid margins confirmed in Q3
Moberg Pharma posted Q3 numbers with net revenue amounting to SEK 109m, up 5% y/y for the current portfolio at constant exchange rates, including a milestone payment of SEK 4.6m. Adjusting for the milestone, sales at constant FX were the same as in Q3 2017. This is largely explained by a warehouse move in July, which shifted volumes of SEK 5-10m from Q3 to Q2. Adjusted gross margins were solid at 76% and reported EBITDA was SEK 23m, representing a slight beat versus our estimate at SEK 22m. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts:
19 SEP 2018
Commissioned Research: First licence agreement for MOB-015
On 18 September, Moberg Pharma announced that the company has signed an exclusive licence agreement with Cipher Pharmaceuticals for MOB-015 in Canada. Moberg Pharma is eligible to receive USD 0.5m upfront and an additional USD 4.1m when development and regulatory milestones have been reached. Pending commercial targets, Moberg Pharma is entitled to further milestone payments of up to USD 10m, as well as royalties. - Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma

Analysts:

Equity analysts

Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Anna Ljung

CFO: Sarah Hellerfelt

Chairman: Peter Wolpert

Numbers
Nordea
SEKm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
285.6
334.3
439.0
546.5
0.0
0.0
55.5
Ebitda (adj.)
46.40
77.91
89.44
121.63
25.98
-12.33
-2.38
Ebitda - margin
16.2%
23.3%
20.4%
22.3%
n.a.
n.a.
-4.3%
EBIT (adj.)
35.2
62.2
51.1
75.2
26.0
-35.7
-25.8
EBIT (adj.) margin
12.3%
18.6%
11.6%
13.8%
n.a.
n.a.
-46.5%
PTP (adj.)
34.6
46.5
11.7
20.9
24.8
-37.0
-27.0
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
25.54
32.67
11.16
16.02
19.19
-42.54
-27.03
Shareholders´ Equity
352.8
561.6
552.4
1,121.0
329.2
286.7
259.6
Net interest bearing debt
-42.0
502.9
472.4
-893.1
-29.1
6.1
18.8
Net gearing
-11.9%
89.6%
85.5%
-79.6%
-8.8%
2.1%
7.2%
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.9
6.5
5.3
-7.3
-1.1
-0.5
-7.9
Free cash flow to equity
-13.2
-698.6
34.1
1,352.8
-54.1
-35.1
-12.8
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
14.2
14.4
17.4
17.4
18.7
18.7
18.7
Nordea Markets estimates published on Dec 10, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
SEK and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
EPS (adj.)
1.78
2.25
0.64
0.91
1.03
-2.29
-1.46
EPS (adj.) growth
86.1%
26.9%
-71.8%
43.6%
13.2%
-321.7%
36.5%
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
BVPS
24.9
39.0
31.7
64.3
17.6
15.4
13.9
P/E (adj.)
15.7
10.7
18.4
30.4
20.1
n.a.
n.a.
EV/Sales
1.23
2.54
1.54
-0.75
n.a.
n.a.
7.34
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
7.59
10.90
7.56
n.a.
13.83
n.a.
n.a.
EV/EBIT (adj.)
10.01
13.66
13.23
n.a.
13.83
n.a.
n.a.
P/BV
1.12
0.62
0.37
0.43
1.18
1.35
1.49
Dividend yield
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
5.1%
-20.0%
-9.6%
-16.5%
-14.0%
-9.1%
-3.3%
RoE
7.8%
7.1%
2.0%
68.3%
2.6%
-13.8%
-9.9%
ROIC
9.6%
7.0%
3.8%
9.2%
7.5%
-9.3%
-7.0%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Dec 10, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters