Moberg Pharma

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Healthcare
SEK 1,170.28
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
MOB SS
MBPH.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 67.10

Latest Reports

15 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: Entering a new phase
Following the divestment of the OTC portfolio, we update our model to reflect the new Moberg Pharma. We remove all future revenue and earnings contributions from the divested operations, implying significant changes to our sales and EBIT estimates. Our view on the potential for MOB-015, however, remains unchanged and we model peak sales of USD ~275m. We update our fair value range to SEK 90-100 (74-87) per share, based on a risk adjustment of 45-60% for sales and royalties. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
15 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Full focus on MOB-015
In conjunction with Moberg Pharma's Q4 report, the company announced that it will divest its OTC business for USD 155m (~SEK 1,431m). The company will use the proceeds to repay its SEK ~600m bond and pay an estimated dividend of SEK 43-45 per share. With the OTC business divested, focus shifts entirely to the company's flagship pipeline asset, MOB-015. The phase III top line results for MOB-015 are expected in Q4 2019 and Q2 2020 for North America and Europe, respectively. The company also announced that it has entered an exclusive license agreement with Bayer for the commercialisation of MOB-015 in Europe. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma

Analysts: Klas Pyk
12 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Moberg Pharma to divest its OTC business for USD 155m
Today, Moberg Pharma announced that it will divest its OTC business for USD 155m (~SEK 1,431m) in cash. The company will use the proceeds to repay its SEK 600m bond and pay a dividend of SEK 43-45 per share. In addition, the company announced that it had signed an exclusive licence agreement for MOB-015 in Europe. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts: Klas Pyk
7 NOV 2018
Commissioned Research: Solid margins confirmed in Q3
Moberg Pharma posted Q3 numbers with net revenue amounting to SEK 109m, up 5% y/y for the current portfolio at constant exchange rates, including a milestone payment of SEK 4.6m. Adjusting for the milestone, sales at constant FX were the same as in Q3 2017. This is largely explained by a warehouse move in July, which shifted volumes of SEK 5-10m from Q3 to Q2. Adjusted gross margins were solid at 76% and reported EBITDA was SEK 23m, representing a slight beat versus our estimate at SEK 22m. Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts:
19 SEP 2018
Commissioned Research: First licence agreement for MOB-015
On 18 September, Moberg Pharma announced that the company has signed an exclusive licence agreement with Cipher Pharmaceuticals for MOB-015 in Canada. Moberg Pharma is eligible to receive USD 0.5m upfront and an additional USD 4.1m when development and regulatory milestones have been reached. Pending commercial targets, Moberg Pharma is entitled to further milestone payments of up to USD 10m, as well as royalties. - Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma

Analysts:
20 AUG 2018
Commissioned Research: Breaking the catch-22 of onychomycosis treatment
Moberg Pharma is a speciality pharma company operating three leading flagship brands in the over-the-counter (OTC) market, with an emphasis on onychomycosis (nail fungus) and skin treatments. Its commercial operations are largely conducted in the US, where ~90% of total sales were generated in 2017. In addition, it has two late-stage drug candidates, including a next-generation nail fungus treatment (MOB-015) and a novel treatment for pain caused by oral mucositis (BUPI). Marketing material commissioned by Moberg Pharma.

Analysts:

Equity analysts

Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Peter Wolpert

CFO: Anna Ljung

Chairman: Thomas Eklund

Numbers
Nordea
SEKm
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
2020E
Total revenues
n.a.
285.6
334.3
439.0
546.5
0.0
26.1
Ebitda (adj.)
n.a.
46.40
77.91
89.44
120.87
-18.80
7.61
Ebitda - margin
n.a.
16.2%
23.3%
20.4%
22.1%
n.a.
29.2%
EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
35.2
62.2
51.1
74.4
-19.6
-21.1
EBIT (adj.) margin
n.a.
12.3%
18.6%
11.6%
13.6%
n.a.
-81.0%
PTP (adj.)
n.a.
34.6
46.5
11.7
20.9
-20.8
-22.3
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
n.a.
25.54
32.67
11.16
15.98
-20.75
-22.26
Shareholders´ Equity
n.a.
352.8
561.6
552.4
1,123.2
335.1
312.8
Net interest bearing debt
n.a.
-42.0
502.9
472.4
-926.6
-102.3
-53.0
Net gearing
n.a.
-11.9%
89.6%
85.5%
-82.5%
-30.5%
-16.9%
Net debt/EBITDA
n.a.
-0.9
6.5
5.3
-7.7
5.4
-7.0
Free cash flow to equity
n.a.
-13.2
-698.6
34.1
820.1
-56.9
-49.3
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
n.a.
14.2
14.4
17.4
17.6
17.6
17.6
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 15, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
SEK and %
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
2020E
EPS (adj.)
n.a.
1.78
2.25
0.64
0.91
-1.18
-1.26
EPS (adj.) growth
n.a.
86.1%
26.9%
-71.8%
42.3%
-229.9%
-7.2%
DPS
n.a.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
BVPS
n.a.
24.9
39.0
31.7
63.6
19.0
17.7
P/E (adj.)
n.a.
37.2
25.3
43.5
74.1
n.a.
n.a.
EV/Sales
n.a.
3.13
3.96
2.18
0.47
n.a.
43.40
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
n.a.
19.25
17.00
10.68
2.13
n.a.
148.63
EV/EBIT (adj.)
n.a.
25.39
21.30
18.70
3.46
n.a.
n.a.
P/BV
n.a.
2.65
1.46
0.87
1.05
3.53
3.79
Dividend yield
n.a.
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
FCF yield
n.a.
-1.4%
-85.0%
7.1%
69.3%
-4.8%
-4.2%
RoE
n.a.
7.8%
7.1%
2.0%
68.2%
-2.8%
-6.9%
ROIC
n.a.
9.6%
7.0%
3.8%
9.4%
-7.1%
-6.6%
Nordea Markets estimates published on May 15, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters