Orexo

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Sweden
Healthcare
SEK 1,128.30
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
ORX SS
ORX.ST
Share price (close):
SEK 32.90

Latest Reports

16 JUL 2021
Commissioned Research: Social media could be the way to go
Orexo's DTx segment is still encountering challenges and Zubsolv sales continue to decline. Marketing through social media might speed up sales of DTx ahead, but we still believe it has a long way to go before the segment contributes to significant revenues. We lower our valuation range to SEK 55-71 (66-85). Marketing material commissioned by Orexo.

15 JUL 2021
Commissioned Research: Flash comment: Sales came in better than expected
Orexo reported its Q2 numbers this morning with sales of SEK 142.8, 2.1% ahead of our expectations (SEK139.9) and down 20% from last year (SEK 179.1m). EBITDA was -41.1 (38% more negative than we expected) and the reported opex was SEK -178m (-12% vs our estimates). Sales of Zubsolv came in at SEK 126m, a decline of 30% y/y and 4.5% below our forecast. The spending increase is attributable to improved R&D expenses related to OX124 and digital therapies. The financial outlook is unchanged. Deviation table below.

30 APR 2021
Commissioned Research: Weak sales momentum in Q1
Orexo experienced a challenging quarter with weaker-than-expected sales for Zubsolv and the DTx offering. The flagship pharma project, OX124, did not receive fast-track approval, delaying its potential launch until late 2023. Consequently, we lower our estimates and cut our DCF-based fair value range to SEK 66-85 (72-91). - Marketing material commissioned by Orexo

29 JAN 2021
Commissioned Research: Slow start for Digital Therapies
Orexo's DTx launch has got off to a slow start, with close to no sales being reported in Q4 2020. We stand by our view that digital therapies in general should face a high underlying need, but we acknowledge that Orexo must soon overcome the current reimbursement challenges and show an uptick in DTx revenue in order for the market to regain confidence in the outlook and the stock. We take down our estimates and lower our DCF-based fair value range to SEK 72-91 (95-119) following the report. Marketing material commissioned by Orexo.

Analysts:
5 NOV 2020
Commissioned Research: Favourable market for the ongoing launch
The next major valuation trigger for the Orexo share lies in the company's ability to ramp up sales in its newly launched digital offering, in our view. Even though reimbursement is yet to be established, we expect first sales in Q4 2020. We argue that a successful launch is particularly important because Orexo's main earnings contributor Zubsolv is facing headwinds from increased competition, COVID-19 and legal disputes. We maintain our view that the market conditions for digital therapies are favourable, but we nevertheless lower our DCF-based fair value range to SEK 95-119 (100-126) owing to slightly lower expectations for Zubsolv. Marketing material commissioned by Orexo.

Analysts:
17 JUL 2020
Commissioned Research: Investing for the future
The ongoing pandemic has caused an increase in depression and alcohol and substance abuse. At the same time, social distancing has triggered a need for digital provision of healthcare solutions. This bodes well for Orexo's newly launched digital therapies for depressions and alcohol abuse . While the future sales of the digital offering could be several times Orexo's current revenues, the launch process implies significant short-term investment. We take a more conservative approach to the sales potential of Orexo's digital offering than the company, but nevertheless increase our DCF-based fair value to SEK 100-126 (72-82) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Orexo.

Analysts:
29 APR 2020
Commissioned Research: Favourable market for a digital launch
Orexo yet again proved that Zubsolv is resilient against the recent entry of generic competition. We argue, however, that investors should look at the potential from the upcoming launch of the digital therapeutic offering, planned for Q3 2020 at the latest – particularly since the COVID-19 outbreak has increased demand for digital healthcare solutions. Marketing material commissioned by Orexo.

Analysts:
9 APR 2020
Commissioned Research: Significant earnings potential in digital therapies
Orexo has recently expanded its research and development efforts in digital therapeutics. In addition to five pharma projects, the company's pipeline portfolio now also includes two digital therapy candidates. In this report, we elaborate on the earnings potential for vorvida and OXD01, Orexo's digital treatments for alcohol misuse disorder and opioid addiction. Both could add significantly to future earnings and the former is planned for launch as early as Q3 2020. Marketing material commissioned by Orexo.

Analysts:
18 MAR 2020
Commissioned Research: Impressions from CMD
At its capital markets day yesterday, Orexo elaborated on the company's pipeline (first product launch as early as Q3 2020). Its ambition is to build on the company's well-established US operation in addiction therapy. The company estimates its pipeline revenue potential is in the range of SEK 4.7-6.7bn (USD 480-695m). If this materialised, it would significantly add to future earnings (revenues in 2019 totalled SEK 845m).

Analysts:
31 JAN 2020
Commissioned Research: Modest outlook for 2020
While Q4 2019 marked another quarter of solid growth (Zubsolv US revenues up 7.5% y/y organically), the company foresees flat y/y sales for Zubsolv in the US during 2020. To secure long-term growth, Orexo will continue investing in its pipeline, as confirmed by its outlook for an 8-18% y/y increase in opex – mostly driven by higher R&D spending. Based on this softer-than-anticipated outlook, we lower our sales forecast by 4-9% and adjust our DCF-based valuation range to SEK 70-80 (78-93) per share.

Analysts:

Equity analysts

Key persons

CEO: Nikolaj Sørensen

CFO: Joseph DeFeo

Chairman: Martin Nicklasson

Numbers
Export to Excel
Nordea
SEKm
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021E
2022E
2023E
Total revenues
643.7
783.1
844.8
663.6
534.0
631.8
768.9
Ebitda (adj.)
78.20
116.60
223.60
18.80
-111.35
27.52
56.12
Ebitda - margin
12.1%
14.9%
26.5%
2.8%
-20.9%
4.4%
7.3%
EBIT (adj.)
57.4
95.8
182.6
-20.0
-154.7
-7.5
21.1
EBIT (adj.) margin
8.9%
12.2%
21.6%
-3.0%
-29.0%
-1.2%
2.7%
PTP (adj.)
29.7
92.3
179.3
-38.3
-159.3
-7.5
20.9
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
23.20
138.00
170.50
-84.30
-160.16
-6.38
17.77
Shareholders´ Equity
329.1
476.1
706.4
558.5
398.3
392.0
409.7
Net interest bearing debt
-8.8
-269.2
-472.5
-214.0
3.0
21.2
15.1
Net gearing
-2.7%
-56.5%
-66.9%
-38.3%
0.7%
5.4%
3.7%
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.1
-2.3
-2.1
-11.4
n.a.
0.8
0.3
Free cash flow to equity
59.6
235.9
264.5
-172.4
-216.4
-19.4
9.2
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
34.7
35.2
35.4
34.4
34.3
34.3
34.3
Nordea Markets estimates published on Jul 16, 2021
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Export to Excel
Nordea
SEK and %
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021E
2022E
2023E
EPS (adj.)
0.67
3.92
4.82
-2.45
-4.67
-0.19
0.52
EPS (adj.) growth
-20.5%
485.5%
23.0%
-150.8%
-90.6%
96.0%
378.6%
DPS
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
BVPS
9.5
13.5
20.0
16.2
11.6
11.4
11.9
P/E (adj.)
61.6
15.0
13.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
63.5
EV/Sales
2.21
2.30
2.07
2.27
2.12
1.82
1.49
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
18.15
15.45
7.82
80.10
n.a.
41.76
20.37
EV/EBIT (adj.)
24.73
18.81
9.58
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
54.14
P/BV
4.34
4.35
3.14
3.08
2.83
2.88
2.75
Dividend yield
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
FCF Yield bef A&D, lease adj
4.3%
11.7%
13.1%
-10.1%
-19.2%
-1.7%
0.8%
RoE
7.3%
34.3%
28.8%
-13.3%
-33.5%
-1.6%
4.4%
ROIC
8.1%
15.0%
29.1%
-2.9%
-21.2%
-1.0%
2.6%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Jul 16, 2021
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Refinitiv