FastPassCorp

Country:
Sector:
Market cap (m):
Denmark
Telecom Equipment and IT
DKK 35.13
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
Website:
FASTPC DC
FASTPC.CO
Share price (close):
DKK 42.40

Latest Reports

6 MAY 2019
Commissioned Research: Small order win in the US
FastPass announced today that a small US customer has decided to buy FastPass's password solution after having it on trial for approximately two months. The order is a standard software purchase for 500 users – thus a small order – and we estimate a DKK 50,000 in upfront payment with revenue impact in 2019. We leave our estimates unchanged but the order is a good confirmation of FastPass's US strategy. - Marketing material commissioned by FastPass Corp.

Analysts: Claus Almer
4 MAR 2019
Commissioned Research: 2018 update: The snowball has started rolling
Friday's full disclosure of FastPass' financials for 2018 confirmed the equity story, which centres on Managed service providers and subscription orders. However, subscription orders are a double-edged sword as they hurt FastPass' short-term revenue, but the net present value is significantly higher and its cash flow is steady. Based on the lower-than-expected revenue growth and our talk with management, we pay close attention to the time it takes for FastPass to receive the first substantial payment from a subscription contract, depending on the MSP and the roll-out. We trim our revenue and margin estimates to reflect the risk of delays, potentially lower margins from a higher cost base, and 2019 guidance for flattish EBIT (2018: DKK 1m). We push 2017-21 guidance for 300-400% revenue growth from its 2017 result of DKK 7.7m one year later to 2022 (2022E: DKK 31m), and expect a 40% EBITDA margin for 2022, 10 pp lower than originally guided. We still see appealing growth prospects, but the rising cost base hurt margins, leading to our new DCF-based fair value range of DKK 70-90 (70-110). Marketing material commissioned by FastPassCorp.

Analysts: Claus Almer
27 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: Scaling up
FastPass is scaling up its sales force and numbers of developers to boost sales, develop new products and to harvest the full potential from managed service providers (MSPs). Due to competition reasons, FastPass does not report actual revenue; however, based on the reported numbers, we calculate that the actual revenue for the year was DKK ~8.7m (13% y/y), DKK ~1.3m lower than our DKK 10m estimated. However, the timing of the pipeline was more to blame for this rather than a disappointing performance. FastPass reiterates 2021 guidance for 300-400% total top-line growth from its 2017 result of DKK 7.7m. Guidance is for a 2021 EBT margin of 30-40% (previously 50%), as the new growth initiatives inflate expenses and revenue comes with a delay. The full report and detailed statements will be published on 1 March, and we will update our numbers then. Thus, we continue to derive a fair value range of DKK 70-110 per share from our DCF model. Marketing material commissioned by FastPassCorp.

Analysts: Claus Almer
26 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: 2018 first impression: Ended on a strong note
After a relatively soft start to 2018, FastPass ended the year on a stronger note. However 2018 EBITDA of DKK 3m was DKK ~1m below our estimate and flattish y/y due to a higher than expected cost base (personnel costs up 6% y/y) and more subscriptions orders, which had a short-term negative revenue impact. At 85%, the amount of revenue from subscriptions is at the highest level to date (2017: ~75%); thus FastPass will secure steady revenue in the coming years. As expected, the 2021 guidance of 300-400% total top-line growth from 2017 (2017: DKK 7.7m) was reiterated, but the previously stated 50% EBITDA margin guidance for 2021 has been changed to an EBT margin of 30-40% due to a higher cost base linked to investments in future growth opportunities.

Analysts: Claus Almer
15 FEB 2019
Commissioned Research: 2020-21 guidance likely to be reconfirmed
FastPass is scheduled to deliver its 2018 full-year report on 26 February at 08.00 CET, where we expect to see solid revenue growth (~30% y/y). Our key focus will be on comments regarding the order pipeline, the cost trend and most importantly the 2020-21 guidance. 2019 is set to be the year when FastPass executes its strategy and harvests the potential, as the window of opportunity could be limited to the next 12-24 months. We continue to derive a fair value range of DKK 70-110 per share from our DCF model. Marketing material commissioned by FastPassCorp

Analysts: Claus Almer
18 JAN 2019
Commissioned Research: New MSP partnership on home turf
The Danish IT company KMD has chosen FastPass as its preferred partner to improve KMD's offering of secure and effective password management to its customers. We classify KMD as a tier-2 MSP, thus we estimate this partnership could increase FastPass's user base by as much as ~10-15%, ie we estimate there is potential to add ~100,000 new users. The partnership with KMD follows a stream of activity with large MSPs, validating FastPass's software while also unlocking attractive growth. With this partnership, FastPass is right on track to reach its ambitious guidance of 300-400% revenue growth and a 50% EBITDA margin for 2020-21.

Analysts: Claus Almer
10 DEC 2018
Commissioned Research: Expanding the geographical reach: US order
After having FastPass' password solution on trial for approximately two months, a major company in the US has decided to officially roll out FastPass' password solution to approximately 10,000 of its SAP users. With the new contract, FastPass will receive a one-time payment, which we estimate to be around DKK 1m with revenue impact in 2018E. The 2018 guidance was reiterated, and we leave our estimates untouched, but the order confirms FastPass' geographic strategy of placing sellers in new countries to reach local customers. – Marketing material commissioned by FastPass

Analysts: Claus Almer
30 NOV 2018
Commissioned Research: Now harvesting
FastPass has, via its UK distributor Knowledge Secure Systems, received the biggest customer order so far from an MSP, which will roll out FastPass's password solution to approximately 150,000 users. Compared to the current installed base, the order will increase the number of total users of FastPass by as much as ~10-15%. Success within the MSP segment is a pivotal element in the company's ambitious guidance for 2020-21 where we see 300-400% revenue growth; hence the order is an important step in the right direction and we expect the client to become a solid reference client, validating FastPass’s password solution and growth potential.

Analysts: Claus Almer
22 OCT 2018
Commissioned Research: A hidden treasure waiting to be discovered
Through its password reset software, FastPass is exposed to IT security, one of the fastest-growing areas in IT. After years of investing in this software, demand from larger IT outsourcing firms is starting to gain momentum, validating its software while also unlocking attractive growth potential. FastPass targets revenue growth of 300-400% in the next five years. If it succeeds, the EBITDA margin should grow to an impressive 50%. Marketing material commissioned by FastPass.

Analysts: Claus Almer

Equity analysts

Senior Analyst

Key persons

CEO: Finn Jensen

CFO:

Chairman: Tommy Vincentz Larsen

Numbers
Nordea
DKKm
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
Total revenues
6.5
6.5
7.7
8.3
11.0
15.0
23.0
Ebitda (adj.)
3.32
2.83
2.98
2.98
3.74
5.40
8.74
Ebitda - margin
51.2%
43.6%
38.9%
35.8%
34.0%
36.0%
38.0%
EBIT (adj.)
1.6
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.5
2.4
4.1
EBIT (adj.) margin
25.0%
16.0%
16.0%
14.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
PTP (adj.)
1.5
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.4
2.3
4.0
Net profit from cont oper (adj)
1.47
3.79
0.84
0.79
1.11
1.79
3.11
Shareholders´ Equity
7.0
10.8
11.4
11.3
10.7
10.9
12.3
Net interest bearing debt
0.3
-0.3
0.5
-0.7
0.2
0.4
-0.5
Net gearing
4.2%
-2.8%
4.7%
-6.4%
2.1%
3.7%
-4.5%
Net debt/EBITDA
0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
Free cash flow to equity
1.5
0.6
-0.6
2.2
0.7
1.5
2.6
Diluted number of shares in issue, year-end (m)
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Nordea Markets estimates published on Mar 4, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates
Per share data and multiples
Nordea
DKK and %
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
EPS (adj.)
1.78
4.57
1.01
0.96
1.34
2.16
3.75
EPS (adj.) growth
85.7%
157.2%
-77.8%
-5.7%
40.6%
60.8%
73.5%
DPS
0.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.01
2.06
BVPS
8.4
13.0
13.7
13.6
12.9
13.1
14.8
P/E (adj.)
11.3
8.4
41.9
45.8
31.6
19.6
11.3
EV/Sales
2.60
4.83
4.66
4.27
3.21
2.37
1.50
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
5.08
11.06
11.98
11.93
9.45
6.58
3.96
EV/EBIT (adj.)
10.40
30.16
29.14
30.52
22.96
14.80
8.35
P/BV
2.38
2.94
3.10
3.21
3.28
3.24
2.86
Dividend yield
0.0%
5.2%
4.7%
4.6%
4.7%
4.7%
4.9%
FCF yield
9.1%
1.9%
-1.7%
5.9%
2.1%
4.2%
7.4%
RoE
23.6%
42.7%
7.6%
7.0%
10.1%
16.6%
26.8%
ROIC
17.1%
9.0%
8.4%
8.0%
11.0%
16.7%
27.7%
Nordea Markets estimates published on Mar 4, 2019
Source: Company data, Nordea estimates

Source: Thomson Reuters